20 Fantasy Thoughts: Things finally looking up for Duchene

The panel spoke about Jaromir Jagr trying to find a way out of the Calgary Flames, the Edmonton Oilers and their struggles and an update on the Filip Forsberg injury.

Every Sunday during the regular season, we’ll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s “Daily Ramblings”.

1. Things are finally looking up for Matt Duchene. After scoring two goals and adding an assist on Friday, Duchene scored again on Saturday in helping the Sens to wins on back-to-back nights. How much of a bust has Duchene been since the trade? Prior to his four points this weekend, Duchene had posted just six points in 24 games as a Senator.

Is Duchene due for a rebound? Since joining the Senators, Duchene has scored at 9.5 per cent accuracy, about 2.5 per cent lower than his career average. This doesn’t suggest a huge rebound but maybe a little bit of one. If you’re thinking of adding Duchene, though, keep in mind that the Sens play just twice next week and twice the following week because their layoff starts on Thursday and lasts an entire week. If you’re a Duchene owner, hopefully that break won’t dampen the positives from the last two games.

2. Nathan MacKinnon is Exhibit A on why you don’t want to give up on a player in a keeper league too early. I answered literally dozens of questions about him last season asking if it was time to trade him or cast him aside. Fantasy owners can do whatever they want to with their players but one common statement in my answers was that he was only 21 – still way too early to think about that. Now at age 22, he’s second in the league in scoring.

With a goal and two assists on Saturday, MacKinnon is already up to 52 points in just 41 games. He has absolutely gone off in his last five games, scoring 12 points (3g-9a). His 13.2 per cent shooting accuracy this season is higher than his 8.7 per cent career average. Most of those assists (26 of 34) have been primary assists, which is another positive sign.

So, as MacKinnon and the Avs put the 2016-17 disaster behind them, fantasy owners shouldn’t have to worry that the fun won’t last.

3. The Philadelphia Flyers might be right where we expected them to be in the standings. But it’s fair to say that two Flyers that have stuck together for most of the season have exceeded pre-season expectations.

Many fantasy owners were loath to drafting Claude Giroux, as his point totals have declined for three consecutive seasons. This year, however, Giroux is not only proving there’s lots left in the tank, he’s also one of the NHL’s top scorers. With a goal and two assists, Giroux has three goals and 20 assists in his last 14 games, which places him third in NHL scoring.

It may have been about finding the right linemate. Last season, Giroux and Sean Couturier spent virtually no time on the same line, as both were used as centres. This season, however, Giroux and Couturier have been used on the same line over 90 per cent of the time, which has benefitted both. With two goals on Saturday, Couturier has reached the 20-goal and 40-point marks for the first time in his career. And he’s done so in just 41 games.

4. Vinnie Hinostroza is on a four-game point streak and has made his way to the top line with Jonathan Toews and Brandon Saad. Is there anything to expect here?

Hinostroza has turned into a shooting machine at the AHL level. He averaged 3.22 shots per game this year, coming off years of 2.33 and 2.24, respectively. He’s shooting a lot and that’s a good start. He’s also starting to get some power-play time as well, having played on both units, more recently with Toews and Patrick Kane. This is all positive.

The overall ice time still isn’t there, though, having cracked 14 minutes in a game only once (Friday). Between the lack of ice time and the ‘Joel Quenneville Factor’ – the latter’s penchant for burying rookies or young players regularly is notorious – it’s hard to trust him. On the other hand, if things keep going as they are, there’s a waiver wire add that can put up 25 points over the second half of the season with good shot rates. If you have a spot on your roster, maybe he’s worth a look. I wouldn’t drop anyone productive, though.

5. Kris Letang is on pace for 79 games, which would be the most for him since 2010-11. He’s also on pace for 49 points, which would be 11 points less than his average from 2014-16, when he skated in 70 games a season. It’s a wild drop-off and a pretty good indicator of how things are going for the Penguins this year.

Can he turn it around? What if he gets traded (which has been rumoured)? What if Justin Schultz keeps getting a bigger role (he has been eating some top PP minutes)? What if Letang gets injured (which often happens)?

I know Letang would seem to be a guy to go out and trade for right now, but is he really?

6. It might be time to start paying a bit of attention to Ryan Pulock. He’s playing about two minutes more per game since Dec. 1 (17:43) than in October and November (15:37) and in the 16 games since Dec. 1, he has 39 shots on goal and over a blocked shot per game (18). Even while playing third-pair minutes, his pace for the last 16 games works out to 200 shots and 92 blocks per 82 games. Yes, that’s just a sample of about 20 per cent of a season, but performing that well in so few minutes seems noteworthy. He’s also played some sparse power-play minutes, though the top unit obviously belongs to Nick Leddy.

There were times over the past few seasons when it was a wonder if Pulock, who had 46 points in 55 AHL games last year, would make a lasting impact in the NHL. Since his late-November recall, things have looked better from a fantasy perspective. Where do Pulock dynasty owners sit? Hopeful that he’ll finally start living up to his expectations or is this a blip on the radar?

7. Leafs’ callup Travis Dermott has 41 points in 85 career AHL games. With Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner locked into the power play, it’s doubtful Dermott has much to offer fantasy hockey owners in the next couple of weeks in what is expected to be a minor role. After that, we’ll be able to re-evaluate how he’s being used and whether he can be useful.

8. Having watched most of the world juniors tourney, and now that it’s over, I was very impressed with Jake Bean. A point-per-game defenceman over the last two and a half seasons in the WHL, I’ve been impressed by Bean just because of how unimpressive he is. I know that sounds weird but it’s how well he plays without a lot of flash to his game. He looks for outlet passes instead of banging it off the glass. He seems pretty good about picking his spots when it comes to jumping in the play. He also doesn’t make glaring mistakes that make you wonder if a coach can trust him once he starts levelling up.

I don’t know how much fantasy value he’ll have in the next two-to-three years in Carolina. They still have trouble scoring (though Martin Necas should help eventually) and assuming they sign Noah Hanifin long-term, the Hurricanes will have Hanifin, Justin Faulk, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce all signed through 2020. That is a glut of talented defencemen that can make it hard for Bean to rack up big minutes, especially on the power play. This likely seems a longer-term project for dynasty owners than if Rasmus Dahlin were to join the Sabres or the Canucks next year. He has the skills and the smarts to be very good in the NHL, it’s a matter of the opportunity afforded him.

9. I am aware of the tear Eeli Tolvanen went on early in the KHL season but watching him among his peers in the WJC was something else.

When you see clips of a guy, they’re almost always the end of a play. We’ve seen Tolvanen snipe on goalies and dance on defencemen and that’s all well and good. What impressed me with Tolvanen was his ability to always look for the dangerous plays in the offensive zone. Sometimes with a young scorer, they’re one-dimensional. A guy can skate fast, or has a wicked shot, or has phone-booth hands. Tolvanen doesn’t just sit in a spot in the offensive zone and wait for the puck. When he crosses the blue line, he’s looking for cross-seam passes or creating chaos through cycling and movement. Eventually he might settle into a spot but it’s usually because of the work that has gone into getting himself into that position, rather than getting into that position and waiting for the work to happen.

Not only can he snipe but it appears (again, this is in three games of one tournament, so grain of salt and all) that he can make those around him better. That is the hallmark of a player ready to make the jump to the next level. Preds fans should be very excited.

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10. The Flames called up Marek Hrivik from the AHL. I don’t have much enthusiasm for this call-up. While Hrivik has scored at a point-per-game pace in the AHL this season, I don’t like that it took him until his age-26 season to reach this level. He is very much a fringe prospect in my books. It’s not that he can’t be an NHL player but rather I don’t expect him to have much in the way of fantasy value.

11. I don’t trust Carter Hutton enough to give him a full-time spot on my roster but I’m inching into that territory. He came into this season with a career .910 save percentage across 106 appearances, which maybe isn’t a large enough sample. This season has an outrageous .947 save percentage in 14 appearances. Taken as a whole, his career save percentage is up to a sub-standard .915. I’d expect something closer to this going forward. All those caveats established, I have all the time in the world for a goaltender on a heater as long as I’m not expecting a long-term solution.

While he’s hot, you could deploy Hutton as a strong third option or even a No.2 alongside a stud like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Sergei Bobrovsky and come out with elite goaltending. This is especially true in rotisserie leagues where you may not have weekly minimums requiring you to carry a more frequent starter.

All this goes for Sharks’ Aaron Dell, as well. In fact, I feel much stronger about his talent and potential to steal Martin Jones’ starting gig. Of course, anyone who had Jake Allen for the first half of last season knows how precarious his hold on the starting job is.

12. Filip Forsberg will miss 4-6 weeks with an upper-body injury. This injury undercuts yet another shot at Forsberg scoring 70 points – he has averaged 62 over the past three seasons – and ends an ironman run after playing every game in three straight seasons.

The silver lining is that this could once again suppress his value at your draft next season. Forsberg went off the board at the 45th pick in the average Yahoo draft, somewhere in the fourth or fifth round depending on league size. That’s great value if he’s there again. Forsberg will absolutely score 70-plus points one of these years. I’ll keep drafting him!

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13. Skating on the Henrik Zetterberg line of late has been Tyler Bertuzzi. It was mentioned on the broadcast that Bertuzzi was told to find a place in Detroit, so expect him up for the rest of the season. I don’t think he’ll have universal fantasy value but Bertuzzi could have some merit in deep multi-category leagues and in keeper leagues.

14. Jonathan Audy-Marchessault signed a six-year contract extension worth $5 million annually. There is some risk for Vegas signing a 27-year-old having a career season but Marchessault has always had talent, scoring efficiently at every stop in his career. Only now is he getting full-time top usage and is very much the driver of the bus on his line, unlike last season, when you might have thought it was simply sponging off Aleksander Barkov.

I do think Marchessault slows down in the second half, though. He’s on pace for 83 points. I’d bet on 70. Let’s use Cam Atkinson as an example. At this point last season, Atkinson had 37 points in 35 games. Marchessault has similar totals (39 points in 37 GP). Atkinson finished with 25 in the final 47. I don’t expect the bottom to drop out so precipitously for Vegas or Marchessault, particularly because of how reliant Atkinson was on PP production, but we have the roadmap for second half decline.

15. Ryan Getzlaf has 17 points in the 13 games since his return from injury, making him well worth the wait if you were patient. Look for the Ducks to make a second-half run now that they are getting back to full health – assuming no other major injuries are forthcoming.

16. Back from injury, Zach Parise is not necessarily a must-add at this point in his career, given both the injuries (at least eight games missed over each of his past four seasons) and his declining production. He still fills the gap as a serviceable option at left wing in deeper leagues, though.

17. Sam Reinhart scored his first goal in 17 games during last Monday’s Winter Classic. He has fallen off entirely but it’s also worth mentioning he hasn’t yet shown the sort of flash indicative of immense potential. Of course, the Sabres have been bad through his entire career and this is only his third full NHL season — he is only 22-years-old. Based on his poor numbers at 5-on-5, I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly emerge. I’d look to move on in keeper leagues, but you may want to wait until after the trade deadline, in case something drastic happens.

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18. We pretty well know what we are getting from the Rangers’ J.T. MillerKevin HayesMichael Grabner line at this point. After an explosive start to last season, they’ve settled into a modest paces. Miller is quietly on pace for a 54-point season after putting up 56 a year ago. He probably has another gear with more power play time but that is unlikely to happen.

Hayes and Grabner, meanwhile, are going to give you somewhere around 40-points. Hayes’ case is interesting because he is skating the most minutes of his career (17:09 per game) but has seen his PP time fall off. They are using him entirely in a defensive role, which suits the counter-attack style that has been successful for this line, but also clipped his offence. Chris Kreider’s absence hasn’t helped Hayes gain any traction on the power play either. Jimmy Vesey has taken on that role on the second unit.

19. When you think of the top goalies in the calendar year of 2017, surely names like Sergei Bobrovsky or Braden Holtby come to mind. The thing is, it was John Gibson who posted the top all-situations save percentage for the year, coming in at a very stout .930. The next-closest was Andrei Vasilevskiy at .925, followed by Bobrovsky and Jonathan Quick at .924.

The NHL history books are littered with highly-touted goalies who amounted to very little in the league. Gibson is not one of them. To this point of his career, he has a .922 all-situations save percentage in 148 games, and he’s still just 24-years-old. I consider him a top-five keeper goalie.

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20. Brent Burns, Victor Hedman and Erik Karlsson went 1-2-3 in point production for 2017 with 66, 66 and 64 points respectively. That seems about right. Fourth was John Klingberg, who had 63 points. Remember when Klingberg ‘only’ had 49 points last year and people were down on him?

Fifth is Nick Leddy with 57. That’s right — not Roman Josi, Shayne Gostisbehere, Drew Doughty or Kevin Shattenkirk. It’s weird because since the start of the 2015-16 season, Leddy has more points than guys like Dougie Hamilton, Shea Weber and Mark Giordano, yet he’s never really considered a top offensive defenceman. He doesn’t perform across the board for roto leagues, but there’s no denying that Leddy is a reliable 40-point player (pending John Tavares’ contract).

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