Every Tuesday for the next 10 weeks Ryan Porth gets you set for a fresh NHL season with in depth looks at the Top 10 teams that will compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup in the 2012-13 season.
When Ken Hitchcock took over for Davis Payne behind the St. Louis Blues’ bench, the team was 6-7-0 and in search of an identity. It didn’t take them long to find one. Hitchcock’s club finished second in the Western Conference with 109 points, turning into one of the NHL’s best stories of 2011-12. Even after a second-round defeat at the hands of the Stanley Cup-winning Los Angeles Kings, the Blues are only starting to fulfill their potential.
Doug Armstrong, who won the NHL General Manager of the Year Award in June, didn’t do much this summer. He didn’t need to. Most of Armstrong’s off-season was spent re-signing his own free agents, as he was only required to make minor adjustments to the reigning Central Division champions.
Here are three reasons why the Blues can and can’t win their first Stanley Cup in 2012-13:
Why the Blues can win it all
1. 5-on-5 prowess
As the number of power plays decrease year by year around the league, the importance of even strength success increases. This past post-season, the Kings led all teams with a staggering 1.52 goals for/against ratio while skating 5-on-5. In the 2010-11 regular season, Vancouver and Boston led the NHL with ratios of 1.40 and 1.32, respectively.
Last season the Blues posted a 1.34 ratio, good for second in the league behind Detroit. The Blues posted a 0.87 ratio in the playoffs and got swept by Los Angeles, proving the importance of getting the job done at even strength.
When you look at the Blues — with Hitchcock behind the bench, the team’s strong goaltending and stable defence corps, just enough offence as support — they are naturally set up well to have success at 5-on-5 because they are difficult to generate offence against. In that sense, they are similarly built to the Cup champion Kings of 2012 and Bruins of 2011, an example as to why Blues fans ooze optimism for the upcoming (fingers crossed) season.
2. Addition of two offensively-gifted rookies
At times last season it felt like the Blues had to manufacture goals to win games. There is nothing wrong with that, but they could use an infusion of offensive talent. They could be getting it this season in the form of two rookies: Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko.
Both rookies were first-round selections in the 2010 NHL Draft. Schwartz got his feet wet in seven games last season and tallied three points. What he lacks in size (5’9″, 179 pounds) is made up in intelligence. Tarasenko, a goal-scoring winger, may have a bigger impact on the Blues in 2012-13. He’s been playing in the KHL since he was 16 years old and is ready to step into an important scoring role if need be.
Neither Schwartz nor Tarasenko will be under immediate pressure to shine, so to have them step in as secondary contributors can only be gravy for Hitchcock.
3. Alex Pietrangelo
For all the talk of Shea Weber, Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson being the next wave of perennial all-star defencemen, Alex Pietrangelo should be included in that group.
The fourth-overall draft pick from 2008, Pietrangelo was quietly outstanding all year defensively for a Blues team that allowed the fewest goals (165) in the NHL. Not to take anything away from the trio of Norris Trophy finalists, but Pietrangelo deserved to be in Las Vegas as one of the three. He matured into the No. 1 defenceman everyone expected him to be coming out of junior hockey, as he increased his physicality and ironed out his consistency.
But Pietrangelo is 22 years old and will only get better. If he continues his upward career arc he will grow into a franchise blueliner capable of leading the Blues to their first-ever Stanley Cup.
Why the Blues can’t win it all
1. Goaltending could experience setback
Their success was so out-of-the-blue (no pun intended) last season that a regression is certainly possible. Hitchcock’s arrival gave the Blues a shot in the arm, but going into this season they have lofty expectations and will have a target on their back — something new for this group. In short, the Blues aren’t going to surprise anyone in 2012-13.
One thing that will be difficult to repeat, along with the 109-point campaign, is the miniscule numbers Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott posted between the pipes. The effective duo combined for a 1.89 goals-against average and had career years in 2011-12. Can that be duplicated by both? Their success was a byproduct of Hitchcock’s system, but a falloff — slight or drastic — should be expected.
If Halak and/or Elliott gravitate back towards earth, it will force the Blues to rely on its offence more than they had to a year ago.
2. Who is the go-to-guy offensively?
Everything the Blues did as a team in 2011-12 was admirably done by committee, whether it was in net, on the blue line or offensively. They only possessed three players with 50-plus points, two players with 20-plus goals (although David Perron and Andy McDonald had successful injury-shortened campaigns) and won a competitive division.
Offence is still a question mark for St. Louis, however.
Maybe Backes is able to put up his third career 30-goal season. Maybe T.J. Oshie performs to his new, shiny five-year extension. Maybe Tarasenko will break out as a rookie and score big goals. Maybe Chris Stewart bounces back after a disappointing showing (15 goals in 79 games) in his first full season in St. Louis.
Whatever the case may be, it would greatly benefit the Blues to have an individual take the offensive reins. The lack of top-notch threats up front was exposed against Los Angeles in the second round in May.
3. A step behind Vancouver, Los Angeles
About two to three years ago, it was difficult for anyone in the Western Conference to maintain the same elite consistency as Detroit and San Jose. But things have changed. The Lidstrom-less Red Wings and aging Sharks are closer to being playoff bubble teams than Stanley Cup contenders. That has allowed St. Louis, among others, to step up and take the throne.
Hitchcock’s gang isn’t the only one in the West hoping to steal that throne, though. Vancouver and Los Angeles, on paper, are better than St. Louis (as you know: all pre-season prognostications are made on paper). The Blues may be solid defensively and between the pipes, but they don’t possess the horses at forward that the Canucks and Kings have. Backes may be the only one that would skate on either of their top lines.
While the Blues are the favorites to win their own division, there are two great teams — on paper — that will keep them from advancing too far next spring.
Prediction: St. Louis will outlast their rivals to win the Central Division but fail to fare much better in the post-season than their second-round exit this past spring.
POLL:
How far will the St. Louis Blues make it in 2012-13?
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