When it comes to the National Hockey League playoff picture, especially under Gary Bettman’s regime of parity, the only constant is change.
Those cherished overtime/shootout-loss points and a hard salary cap make it so.
Seven teams that whiffed on the 2013-14 playoffs rebounded to qualify for the 2014-15 dance in the largest year-to-year change in league history. The turnover from 2014-15 to 2015-16 wasn’t quite so drastic, but still five of the 16 playoff teams were refreshed. And, yes, all five of those kicked to the outside were based in Canada.
The good news is that 2017 should bring more failure and resurgence, another changing of the post-season guard.
We see Toronto, Buffalo, Carolina, New Jersey and Arizona all taking a calculated but gradual step in their progression to rebuild a real contender. Edmonton has certainly been aggressive this summer, but is still one year and one top-four defenceman away. The inconsistency in Columbus scares us off. And Vancouver is like the runner who rounds the bend in eighth place and still thinks he can catch Usain Bolt.
So, who’s left?
Here are six teams that have the best shot to return to the playoffs in 2016-17, ranked in order from most to least likely.
Montreal Canadiens
2015-16 record: 38-38-6, 82 points
Points out of playoff spot: 11
No team will be more scrutinized in 2016-17 than the Habs. Can you trade away a Norris Trophy winner in his prime and become a better team?
Well, when you consider that 2015-16 was an unmitigated disaster and that 2015 Hart Trophy winner Carey Price is finally healthy and ready to go, the answer — in the near term, at least — is yes.
P.K. Subban has a new karaoke bar, but Montreal still owns one of the league’s definitive No. 1 defencemen in Shea Weber, who’s hot off a 20-goal season. Alex Galchenyuk busted out last season with 30 goals, and he’s just 22. A healthy Brendan Gallagher (he missed 29 games last year) and the signing of free agent Alexander Radulov inject a needed scoring punch. And although Andrew Shaw might be overpaid at $23.4 million for the next six years, he should scratch, claw and bite for every penny.
Better goaltending, more offence and a nastier edge makes the Habs a contender in the relatively open Atlantic Division.
“It’s going to be a different feeling Day 1 at camp,” says captain Max Pacioretty, eager to join forces with Weber. “Carey is the best player in the world. When we lost him, obviously we weren’t able to recover from it. That experience of last year alone should make us more determined to bear down in tough times like that.”
Boston Bruins
2015-16 record: 42-31-9, 93 points
Points out of playoff spot: 0 (eliminated via tie-breaker to Detroit)
With a handful of days remaining in the last two regular seasons, a confident Bruins marketing department began advertising playoff tickets for sale. In both springs, the B’s swooned late and whiffed on the post-season, irking owner Jeremy Jacobs and making “Will coach Claude Julien get fired?” an annual headline.
Despite losing 30-goal sniper Loui Eriksson to free agency and failing to address their defensive depth this summer, we see the Bruins better positioned to take a run at the 2017 post-season than the Red Wings and Flyers, who slipped by them in April.
Julien, an excellent bench boss, isn’t sticking around for a rebuild, and free agent David Backes didn’t hop on for one either. David Pastrnak, 20, is a smart bet for a breakout campaign, and the dangerous Brad Marchand should be plenty motivated heading into a contract year.
This is a flawed group, to be certain, but special teams and solid goaltending from the all-world Tuukka Rask give them a chance.
Fun fact: Of all 2016’s non-playoff teams, Boston was the only one with a positive goal differential (+10).
Winnipeg Jets
2015-16 record: 35-39-8, 78 points
Points out of playoff spot: 9
The spring of 2015 and the raucous return of white-out playoff hockey to The ‘Peg felt like the beginning of upward movement. The up-in-the-air futures of stars Dustin Byfuglien (stayed) and captain Andrew Ladd (went), however, stole all the headlines in 2015-16, and the undisciplined Jets couldn’t stay out of the penalty box.
Refusing to tank, Winnipeg embraced the role of spoiler and won its final four games — all against playoff teams battling for position. April revealed some heart in the frigid city, and the franchise was rewarded (thanks to the nifty new draft lottery rules) with the second-overall pick: super sniper Patrik Laine.
Mark Scheifele, 23, has been one of the NHL’s best centres for the last six months, and he’s now getting paid like it. The determined Blake Wheeler, we believe, has grown into captain material, Nikolaj Ehlers will be 365 days more dangerous, and Shawn Matthias was a solid depth pickup on the open market.
The Jets still play in hockey’s toughest division and need to sort out Jacob Trouba’s financials, but a wild card spot is within reach. Laine is the real deal. Get used to seeing him hog highlights.
Ottawa Senators
2015-16 record: 38-35-9, 85 points
Points out of playoff spot: 8
Next to Boston, Ottawa had the best goal differential of 2016’s lottery clubs (-11) and would likely have finished stronger had the club not shut down a few injured players early, such as Kyle Turris and Dion Phaneuf. The Sens made yet another switch behind the bench. Guy Boucher and assistant Marc Crawford have plenty of experience to draw on, and ownership’s expectations are that this is a playoff team.
Ottawa boasts the best defenceman in the game today (Norris voting be damned), and while losing Mika Zibanejad may hurt the team down the road, the injection of top centre Derick Brassard makes Ottawa better right now. Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone are in their prime, Cody Ceci and Curtis Lazar should take another step forward, and a healthy Clarke MacArthur (who missed 78 games last year with concussion symptoms) will be a significant boost.
Calgary Flames
2015-16 record: 35-40-7, 77 points
Points out of playoff spot: 10
Well aware of his club’s flaws — poor puck possession, atrocious goaltending, shaky special teams — GM Brad Treliving put in major work this summer overhauling his group. Well-regarded Glen Gulutzan gets a sweet promotion from Vancouver assistant to Calgary head coach, and the 45-year-old has an opportunity to take hold of a young room Bob Hartley (not a Treliving hire) lost.
The excellent Brian Elliott and underrated Chad Johnson significantly improve a crease that ranked dead last in 2015-16, and newly acquired wingers Troy Brouwer and Alex Chiasson make the forward core more dynamic.
Because the Pacific Division has a few bottom-tier opponents — Edmonton, Vancouver, Arizona — the refreshed Flames and their solid D core should rebound and be closer to the 2014-15 version of themselves. If one of the California clubs falters, Calgary will pounce. If not, the Flames should be a wild-card threat.
Colorado Avalanche
2015-16 record: 39-39-4, 82 points
Points out of playoff spot: 5
Let’s be honest: This one is a long shot to return. But here goes….
Colorado flirted with a wild-card spot for much of 2016 only to implode down the stretch, losing its final six contests. Still, the in-fighting Avs were the last Western Conference team to be eliminated.
No NHL team took less advantage of the league’s parity-creating loser point than the 2015-16 Avalanche, who only had four overtime/shootout losses. That number will go up, thus padding their standings points in 2016-17.
Number 1 goalie Semyon Varlamov had a bad season (his .914 save percentage and 25 losses were his worst in three years) and, at age 28, should rebound.
But the big shift here will be behind the bench, as GM Joe Sakic replaces analytics whipping boy Patrick Roy, a passionate man unafraid of calling out his best players.
Could a dramatic culture shift make a world of difference in Denver? We’re saying there’s a chance.
