Alex Burrows doesn’t agree with the notion that his Vancouver Canucks may be taking a small step back in 2015-16 in order to take a giant leap forward down the road.
“For sure,” the Canucks are still a playoff team, he asserted last week in Toronto while attending Smashfest IV.
It doesn’t matter that the Canucks traded key pieces (Eddie Lack, Kevin Bieksa) for draft picks, or that the team’s best forwards and starting goaltender are all 34 or older, or that a division rival like Calgary went out and snagged Dougie Hamilton.
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“It doesn’t matter what other teams do. We have to focus on us. I know, talking to my teammates, everybody’s getting stronger and faster this summer,” Burrows said. (P.S. Burrows says his ribs still hurt during certain exercises, but the winger is confident he’ll be 100 per cent healthy in time for training camp.)
“Everybody’s working hard, making sure they show up in camp in great shape. Once you do that, with the coaching staff we have, there’s no way we won’t establish good systems, establish a high-paced game. If we can stay healthy, have good goaltending and strong special teams, there’s no way we should be out of the playoffs.”
If not the Canucks, then who?
In a parity-driven league like the NHL, there is bound to be year-to-year turnover in post-season clubs. The 2014-15 campaign saw seven teams that missed the dance in 2013-14 return. Four of those teams were from Canada.
While a seven-team switcheroo is a stretch for 2016, we’ll bet about four playoff teams from this past-season don’t qualify next spring. Here are the eight 2015 playoff clubs most in danger of losing their status, ranked in order from most to least in danger of falling out.
Vancouver Canucks
2014-15 record: 48-29-5
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 6
If Vancouver’s first-round loss to the insurgent Calgary Flames (despite Vancouver holding home-ice advantage) raised questions about the ability of this team to compete now, well, GM Jim Benning’s widely panned off-season hasn’t done much to keep his critics at bay.
Fans would much rather be entering 2015-16 with Eddie Lack on the club, and the departures of Nick Bonino, Shawn Matthias and Kevin Bieksa yielded returns that may not pay off until later, if at all. God bless ’em, but the Sedins are one year older. Same goes with top-six forwards Burrows and Radim Vrbata, who had a heck of a Canucks debut. All four are 34. Despite playing in the weak Pacific, we’re betting the Canucks miss for the second time in three years.
Ottawa Senators
2014-15 record: 43-26-13
Points Buffer between playoffs and golf: 3
Ottawa is lucky we’re even placing it in this category. The Senators needed a miraculous late-season run and help from a screwy Bruins outfit to sneak into the 2015 post-season. The Sens also benefited from 13 OTL (a.k.a. loser) points. There was a magic in their second-half performance that is not easily bottled.
Is Andrew Hammond a one-hit wonder? Will they regret letting Robin Lehner go? The Sens retained their young forwards—Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Alex Chiasson, Mika Zibanejad—but failed to find that top-six scorer they were poking around for. With the Metropolitan Division (hello, Phil Kessel and Brandon Saad) getting stronger and healthier, there’s a good chance the Atlantic Division doesn’t get a wild card spot in 2016.
Detroit Red Wings
2014-15 record: 43-25-14
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 4
Another Atlantic Division club in danger, especially if you believe the Bruins underachieved in 2014-15 and will bounce back. The Wings slipped into the playoffs for an astounding 24th consecutive time, but only by the skin of their teeth. Buoyed by 14 loser points, more than any other playoff team, Detroit’s reliance on veterans continued this summer. The Wings signed free agents Mike Green, 29, and Brad Richards, 35. Then we discovered 37-year-old Pavel Datsyuk is doubtful for the first few weeks of the season due to an ankle injury.
Oh, yeah. And unless you’ve been living on the bed of a Ford F-150, you’re aware that the NHL’s most hyped coach left town. The pressure’s on rookie coach Jeff Blashill to keep the dream of 25 alive.
Winnipeg Jets
2014-15 record: 43-26-13
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 4
Despite playing in hockey’s toughest division and getting ravaged by injuries, Winnipeg made the playoffs for the first time since your mom knew who Dave Babych was. But the task hasn’t gotten any easier. Despite St. Louis (no more T.J Oshie), Nashville, Chicago (no more Patrick Sharp, Brandon Saad and Johnny Oduya) and Minnesota not making any major strides forward, on paper Dallas sure did. The Jets must beat out at least one of those clubs, and do so without the services of Michael Frolik (19 goals last season), Lee Stempniak (15 goals) and Jiri Tlusty (14 goals)—all of whom left as free agents.
It’s a tall order, and the cloud of Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien’s expiring contracts will hang overhead all season.
Calgary Flames
2014-15 record: 45-30-7
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 2
Time to learn our lesson, right? Stop betting against the Calgary Flames. Yes, they’re a young, exciting group on the rise. Yes, Brad Treliving & Co. made out like bandits this off-season, landing Dougie Hamilton and signing Frolik. And, yes, with captain Mark Giordano healthy, the Flames should deploy one of the scariest bluelines in the NHL.
But let’s not forget that Calgary got career years out of its best players, enjoyed unexpected performances from veterans such as Jiri Hudler and Dennis Wideman, and they still needed 81 games to secure a spot in the dance. The Flames’ 20th-ranked penalty kill could use some work, but our main concerns here are the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks. What are the chances those two California clubs miss out again?
New York Islanders
2014-15 record: 47-28-7
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 5
The Rangers, Capitals, Islanders, Penguins, Flyers and Blue Jackets all firmly believe they’re playoff teams. One, two or three of them won’t be. It’s math. The Islanders cruised into the 2015 playoffs on the strength of their hottest start since the sepia-hued dynasty teams of the early 1980s. Much was made about the Isles’ acquisitions of Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk—and rightfully so—but even with that boost on the back end New York finished just 23rd in goals against and scrambled with the fifth-worst penalty kill. GM Garth Snow remained quiet this summer, which means the onus once again will likely be on a dangerous forward core to carry the weight.
Minnesota Wild
2014-15 record: 46-28-8
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 5
More goals, please. Getting down to this point in the list we see the teams that will probably make the cut but could have a difficult time doing so. One only need to look at the Wild’s dismal first half to see the depths this roster can sink to when not firing on all cylinders. Were it not for Carey Price, Devan Dubnyk may have won the Vezina—which still feels odd to type—but now that he’s all locked up, can he maintain the pace and precision of his breakout season?
More important: Is this Wild offence ready to lend more run support? (We see you, Thomas Vanek.) The Wild had the best penalty kill in the business last season but could only convert on 15.9 per cent of power plays. Were Minnesota playing in any other division, they wouldn’t be in danger, but the margin for error is too thin in the Central.
Pittsburgh Penguins
2014-15 record: 43-27-12
Points buffer between playoffs and golf: 2
The Penguins? Are you crazy, Fox? Pittsburgh now has Phil the Thrill. The Pens are going to score six goals a game and make you look ridiculous. No doubt, GM Jim Rutherford has had himself a nice little summer. Kessel is money from the red line north, and we like the Eric Fehr and Nick Bonino moves, too.
But consider how close Pittsburgh was to missing out entirely last season. Of all the playoff teams, Pittsburgh was tied with a league-low 43 wins, and no Eastern playoff club had a worse goal differential than Pittsburgh’s +11. Can Marc-Andre Fleury deliver an NHL-best 10 shutouts again? Well, that’ll be extra tough since veterans Paul Martin and Christian Ehrhoff walked and Simon Despres has been enjoying deeper playoff runs in Anaheim. Kris Letang points out that the move to three-on-three overtime should help a talent-rich club grab a few more points, but they may need each one they get.
The window is now, and second-year coach Mike Johnston must deliver.
