Whatever you think of the Montreal Canadiens, let’s agree they’re closer to an upstart team that kicked and fought its way to the conference final than a high-horsepower outfit everyone had circled as a contender.
And even if they were the latter, beating Henrik Lundqvist three times in a row would be an order taller than the Empire State Building.
But here the Habs are, with no margin for error after dropping a heart-breaking 3-2 overtime decision in Game 4. To be clear, Montreal is full value for the hole it finds itself in. The team didn’t bother to show up in Game 1 of the series at home and has been plagued by shoddy defensive play in Madison Square Garden, including the botched clearing attempt(s) that led to Martin St. Louis’ game-winner Sunday night.
That shot over Dustin Tokarski’s glove likely sealed the series for New York. But if you’re looking for reasons to stay tuned, here are five.
1. It ain’t the goalie’s fault. Does anybody believe the Canadiens would’ve been further ahead playing Peter Budaj now? Tokarski was under siege at times during the two games in New York and consistently stood up to the Rangers’ pressure. In an age of hyper-refined goalie techniques, being a battler still counts for something—especially in a short span—and Tokarski has been the best Hab in the fight.
2. The pushback has already begun. When Derick Brassard scored with 56 seconds left in the second period of Game 4, it marked the fifth time the Canadiens have surrendered a goal in the final two minutes of a frame in this series. This one was even more back-breaking because Montreal finally seemed to be finding its bearings. After squaring the contest early in the third, the Habs actually had the better scoring chances throughout regulation—including a struck crossbar by Alex Galchenyuk—and early in extra time. Previously, Montreal wasn’t getting much push from any line beyond the unit of David Desharnais between Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. Now, there’s some evidence that’s changing.
3. Heading home. Typically when there’s a 3-1 series dynamic, the team with a lone victory is the lower-ranked squad, meaning its comeback task is all the tougher because it must win two games in enemy territory. That’s not the case for Montreal. Think of it this way: Does it seem reasonable to suggest a club that’s proven resilient (more on that later) this spring could win a do-or-die home game based on pride alone? And—just follow us here—would it be fair to suggest any team that wins a pair of games to force Game 7 showdown in its own building would be the betting favourite in that contest? Yeah, probably. Three in a row is one thing, but three in a row when two are in your house is slightly different.
4. Been there before. If you listen to the Canadiens, they’ll tell you people have been writing them off all season. It’s a bunch of hyperbole they spew in an attempt to fire up their own dressing room. Regardless, the fact is Montreal played two elimination games against Boston and won them both by a combined score of 7-1. That has to help a little as the Habs find themselves up against it again.
(Sidenote: Should the Canadiens force a seventh game, Montreal would bring a 4-0 record in elimination games into that contest, the same mark the Rangers have in that circumstance this post-season after winning Game 7 against Philly in Round 1 and coming back from a 3-1 deficit of their own versus the Penguins in Round 2.)
5. Special themes. Naturally, we saved the most tenuous reason for last. The Canadiens’ power play is famously in a funk right now, held to a pitiful 1-for-17 in the series by the Rangers’ stellar penalty-killing. There’s no tangible reason to expect that dynamic to change other than to say power plays often run really hot and cold. Right now Montreal’s is frigid, but when you’ve got a bomber like P.K. Subban, a sleeping sniper in Thomas Vanek and a creative maestro in Andrei Markov on your team, things can turn fast. If the Habs’ power play suddenly clicks, it will make a world of difference in this series—which, at least technically, isn’t over yet.