The Washington Capitals are doing it again. Down 2-0 in their conference semifinal series against the Pittsburgh Penguins and heading into Pittsburgh for Game 3 Monday night, the chances are grim that they’ll be able to accomplish their ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.
This was supposed to be the Caps’ year, winning the Presidents’ Trophy and heading into the playoffs as Cup favourites once again with several key players becoming unrestricted free agents in July. And after adding Kevin Shattenkirk at the trade deadline — not to mention the Penguins missing Kris Letang — all signs pointed to the Caps being the team to beat, yet here we are again.
Not all the news is bad for the Caps. Through the first two games they have a 63.08 per cent score-adjusted Corsi at 5-vs-5, and in all situations they have a 62.49 per cent expected goals rate according to Corsica.Hockey. These statistics suggest they deserve to be up 2-0 instead of down 2-0 in the series, but either way they’re in a tough spot needing to win four of the next five.
[snippet id=3317575]
Odds are against them doing that. It’s a big ask for any team and the Penguins are arguably the toughest to do it against. If the Caps fall short, there’s going to be a lot of blame to go around. Because he’s always a focal point, Alex Ovechkin will receive a large amount of that blame. But is that fair?
For whatever reason, there’s a narrative in NHL circles that Ovechkin doesn’t show up in the playoffs, and that’s just bogus. Since 2005-06, when Ovechkin entered the league, only Phil Kessel has recorded more than his .49 goals per game among players with 50-plus playoff games.
Since Ovechkin first made the playoffs in 2007-08, only Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp have recorded more than his 45 goals, and they’ve played 34, 34, 35, and 38 more games than has Ovechkin.
The Capitals have certainly underperformed against their expectations for years, but not much of the blame can be put on Ovechkin.
It’s true that his point production drops a bit in the playoffs, but that’s the case for most players. Ovechkin has still maintained 0.96 points per game in the post-season, the eighth-best mark in the NHL since 2007-08. Cutting things a little finer, though, let’s look at his 5-vs-5 play in the playoffs versus the regular season in his career.
There’s a slight drop in Ovechkin’s assist numbers in the playoffs, but in terms of goals and shots, he’s the same player. I’d venture a guess that he’s the same player in terms of playmaking too, but that his linemates have scored at a reduced rate in the playoffs, leading to fewer assists for Ovechkin compared to the regular season.
There will be those who expect a player like Ovechkin to raise his game in the playoffs instead of being his regular self, but the fact is when you’re already starting out as arguably the greatest goal scorer in NHL history, it’s tough to raise your game much from there.
Crosby’s per game point production goes from 1.31 in the regular season to 1.13 in the post-season, yet he’s the highest-scoring playoff player of his generation. Checking is tighter in the playoffs, especially on superstars.
But with Washington close to being on the brink, many will blame Ovechkin no matter what. Looking even closer, though, it’s clear how illegitimate he is to be a scapegoat.
Comparing Ovechkin’s playoff performance this year to the regular season, we actually see some evidence that he’s been raising his game. His shot attempts are up, which has led to more scoring chances, and he’s been creating more scoring chances for his teammates as well.
The only areas that we see a drop off are in his controlled entries, which has resulted in a slight drop in his passes off the rush. Cutting down on Ovechkin’s ability to attack off the rush is something all teams focus on when defending him because he’s such a dangerous shooter, but that has not resulted in Ovechkin producing fewer opportunities for himself or his teammates.
If the Capitals fail to come back in this series, it won’t be due to the play of Ovechkin. It’s hard to comprehend how the Capitals consistently find ways to lose in the playoffs, but it’s a good reminder of just how difficult it is to win the Stanley Cup.
The San Jose Sharks experienced similar heartbreak for years while boasting arguably the most complete team in the league, but you need to get some good fortune, even when you’re the best. Whether that comes in the way of injury luck, good bounces going your way in the toughest series you face, or the worst matchup for your team being eliminated before you have to face them, every team that has won a Stanley Cup saw something go in their favour. The Capitals have never got these breaks.
Sometimes it’s no one’s fault, as unsatisfying as that is. But for this year’s Caps, it’s still not over, and they can’t afford to let doubt take over.
[relatedlinks]
