The New York Rangers’ victory over the Washington Capitals leaves us analyzing the remains of a series that is one of those most difficult to break down analytically.
There was no obvious failing in the losing team, and the performance from the winning side saw key contributions we have come to expect.
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The goalies were superlative, Alex Ovechkin scored goals, Rick Nash struggled to do so, and this one wrapped up the way people probably anticipated given the history of collapses by the Capitals in the post-season. The Presidents’ Trophy winners won a close-fought series with some timely scoring and amazing play from their best player as Henrik Lundqvist did it again in a Game 7 clincher.
Along the way, King Henrik has tied the NHL record for Game 7 wins at six with fellow greats Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy, and he’s now one step closer to the Cup that will cement his place amongst the all-time best.
It seems unfair that one of the two goalies who starred in this series had to go home a loser. Braden Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist put on an amazing display throughout the series, with every game decided by a one-goal margin. Both goaltenders posted amazing save percentages in the series – .945 for Holtby and .946 for Lundqvist – but they particularly excelled on High Danger attempts, both posting HD save percentages above .830 in the series. The average High Danger save percentage for elite NHL starters is .825, but Lundqvist’s career HD SV% is .836 and Holtby’s is .833, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that these two goaltenders posted such miraculous numbers.
As a result of such limited goal scoring, much of the “blame” in this series will unfairly land on the broad shoulders of the NHL’s leading scorer in the regular season, Alex Ovechkin.
Despite the insanely good numbers Lundqvist posted in the series to deny him entry to the conference final, Ovechkin had by far the best shot differential of any Capitals skater in the series. His team controlled 60.5% of the shot attempts with him on the ice. He also managed to score three of his team’s 12 goals, including their only marker in Game 7.
Using data provided by War-On-Ice.com he generated 31 scoring chances in the seven-game series, which dwarfed the contributions of Washington’s next closest threats, Joel Ward (22) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (21). History will most likely forgive and forget the declaration Ovechkin made that his team would win the Game 7 of the series, but the continual failure of his team to progress beyond the Round 2 will haunt his legacy.
In a supporting role Joel Ward again proved his worth as a playoff performer in the series, leading the Capitals in scoring with 2 goals and 5 points. His physical play down low was amazingly challenging for the Rangers defenders to handle, and he contributed heavily to possession when he got the opportunity.
For the Rangers, unfortunately there is some bad to go with the good of winning the series. Dan Boyle may suffer lingering effects from the vicious Brooks Orpik hit he took in Game 7, and Martin St. Louis seems to be a shell of his Tampa Bay self. His possession per game has been weak for a number of years but it seems his production has finally started to follow as he produced just three assists in the series and still only has four assists in the entire playoffs.
Rick Nash scored one goal in the series, but he is generating the most scoring chances of any Rangers skater (10.62 scoring chances per 60 mins) and he seems to be snake-bitten again in the playoffs.
Chris Kreider managed to fill the void in production being left by Nash’s inability to cash in on the many chances he is generating. We also saw key contributions from the likes of Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin, and rookie Kevin Hayes that should make the fans at MSG happy with the kids in the line-up.
If the Rangers can get a healthy Mats Zuccarello back into their lineup, that will greatly improve their chances against a Tampa Bay team that led the NHL in scoring in the regular season while posting some of the best possession numbers in the league. Zuccarello is a key cog to the Rangers’ possession efforts and would significantly upgrade their depth at forward.
It will be interesting to see what Washington does in the off-season to modify its roster. Mike Green could be on his way out as an expensive UFA option who quite possibly hurt his stock with his untimely penalties in Game 7. If he does depart, his consistent contributions to the Capitals’ possession with his mobility and puck skills will be missed.
Either way, the Caps have good depth on their roster, and are set long-term with Holtby in net. If only they could find a way to stop running up against the Rangers.
