When looking at the Calgary Flames roster for the coming year, I think it’s fair to say there are a number of players who need to see their contributions ramped up if the team is going to return to the playoffs. However, there are two players in particular that I believe are poised to have better offensive seasons than they did in the 2011-12 campaign. Both guys were reliable members of the team, but both players also underachieved, to some extent, offensively.
LEE STEMPNIAK
It’s not like Stempniak had a poor season in his first with the Flames last year, but for how effective he was for most of his 61 games, I think he was capable of more than 14 goals. More than anything, I think it was a product of the puck not always bouncing his way, but after scoring 28 and 19 goals the two years prior, I believe Stempniak is poised to have things bounce back in an upward direction.
I say that because Stempniak was one of Calgary’s most reliable players in terms of possession and meaningful minutes. Among regular forwards, he spent the most amount of time in the offensive zone when taking a proxy of his shots directed at the net for and against. While starting more shifts in his own end (49.4 per cent offensive zone start), Stempniak still posted a positive shot rate of 4.62, leading all regular forwards (40 games or more) in that category. As we’ve talked about earlier this summer, that shows a good ability to affect the play up the ice when starting in his own end. Even more, though, it shows Stempniak’s ability to keep the puck at the right end of the ice once it’s there. He was a positive possession player in a year where many Flames forwards were in the red.
Seeing as how Stempniak has always been a smart, reliable, possession player, I can’t see that changing for the coming year. So why would his offensive totals increase? I think you’ll see a more concerted effort to shoot the puck from Stempniak, as his shots-per-game were down half a shot from 2009-10 and close to half a shot from the 2010-11 season. That seems like a negligible total, but when you think about it over 80 games or so, half a shot a game could lead to a good chunk of scoring opportunities for a guy who spends more time at the right end of the ice or not.
I was all for Stempniak’s new two-year contract with the Flames, because even if he doesn’t put up improved goal totals, he’s still an effective player where the stats don’t count. The very reason he continues to be an effective player, however, is the main reason why I think you’ll see a slight increase in his production over a full season. Fingers crossed.
MIKAEL BACKLUND
Backlund is much the same as Stempniak in many senses. They were the only two regular forwards with positive shot rates, with Backlund clocking in at 1.91. That total is understandably lower, as the second-year forward started in the offensive zone almost five percentage points less. Backlund’s offensive zone start finished at 44.6 per cent and it’s fair to assume that his shot rate would have been closer to Stempniak’s had their zone starts been more comparable. Backlund also did a fine job of helping the play move forward and was a positive possession player under slightly more difficult circumstances.
The biggest difference between the two comes in shooting percentage. While Stempniak could do well to increase his shots, the rate at which his shots actually go in is very respectable at 10.8 per cent. On the other hand, Backlund’s shooting percentage over 41 games finished more than six per cent lower last season, finishing at a dreadful 4.7 per cent. Very few, if any, NHL forwards truly shoot at that low a clip and in almost every case, a season well below the league average in shooting percentage is followed by a year with some sort of appreciable improvement.
So, it’s not just a shot in the dark to say there’s a good chance Backlund’s shooting percentage will increase a few points for next year. If he continues to spend more time in the offensive end, that will automatically lead to more production. Let’s do some simple math to extrapolate what a slight bounce back season in terms of shooting percentage could do for Backlund.
If he continues to take about two shots a game, which has been his rough average during his two full NHL seasons, he’d finish with about 150 shots over, say, 75 games. I think it’s more than fair to give him a two per cent bump in shooting percentage, moving him up to 6.7% from the prior year (even though there’s a good chance it might jump up more than that). That’s six more goals over a full year. No, it’s not a mind blowing total, but it is an appreciable improvement when using very conservative extrapolations.
However, there are a few things that aren’t being taken into account statistically. Backlund is just 23-years-old and has admittedly struggled with confidence in his short NHL career. He’s never been used consistently in any one role, and he’s never been given much of a chance to shine offensively. A little confidence, and a little momentum born from consistent utilization, could do wonders for him on a one year contract. I know many think he’s already a first-round bust, but I do not put myself in that category whatsoever. He’s an effective player away from goals and assists, but he’s also a player I think is poised for an improved offensive season. In a contract year, that might be exactly what the doctor ordered.