The Calgary Flames returned from their longest road trip of the season Tuesday morning just two points out of a wild card spot.
Despite a horrific start that has seen the club struggle to find any sort of identity or consistency under Glen Gulutzan, just one win separated them from the west’s top eight. And while history suggests those outside the playoff bubble by U.S. Thanksgiving are long-shots at best to play in the spring tourney, it says here the Flames will be in that playoff mix come April.
Here’s the logic:
If this team can remain that close to the pack without the help of any of its top five players, surely things will turn when the stars start showing up. It’s unconventional thinking from a columnist, who over the years, has been called everything but an optimist when it comes to the Flames.
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However, surely the puck luck this franchise rode to the playoffs two years ago can return to some degree once Johnny Gaudreau returns from injury (around Christmas) and Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Brian Elliott somehow find their game.
All five have been pedestrian, at best, to date.
The fact that the young supporting cast has kept this crew within shouting distance has to be encouraging to staunch pessimists. The struggles of the two former snipers have been blamed on missing training camp, amongst other things, but such excuses are wearing thin.
Monahan’s play has been so bad Gulutzan demoted him to the fourth line Monday in Brooklyn before counting on him late to score the game-tying goal in a 2-1 overtime loss. It was just the sixth goal and ninth point of the season for the 22-year-old who recently inked a deal paying him $6.375 million each of the next seven years.
Giordano and Brodie, who both finished top-20 amongst NHL defencemen in scoring last year, have one goal apiece. After combining for 27 goals and 101 points last year they are on pace for six goals and 47 points – hardly enough for a team that hoped to continue pushing and generating its offence from the back end.
Brodie sits minus-14, dead last in the NHL.
In fact, Brodie, Gaudreau (minus-10), and Monahan (minus-9) are all bottom 10 in the NHL in that category.
It can’t continue. It won’t.
Just as analytics experts correctly predicted the Flames inordinately high shooting percentage and win totals would plummet after their miraculous playoff birth two years ago, surely those paying attention to PDO can see they’re bound to improve their fortunes soon.
Generally considered the most accurate gauge of a team’s luck, PDO is the sum of a team’s five-on-five shooting percentage and their five-on-five save percentage.
The Flames currently sit 28th in the league, thanks largely to a league-worst .892 save percentage.
Again, the stellar play of late by Chad Johnson – the team’s most positive development this season alongside rookie Matthew Tkachuk – is slowly raising that number.
It goes without saying Johnson will have to continue to have a hot hand if the Flames are to make things interesting as the spring approaches. In a season as compact as this, Elliott (3-9-1, 3.31 GAA and .885 save percentage) will also have to find his way back to respectability, and soon.
What has complicated their “misfortune” is the team’s horrific special teams play, which can’t get much worse than being the league’s 30th ranked power play unit and the 29th best penalty killers.
Yet, again, they enter Wednesday night’s game against visiting Toronto on the playoff doorstep.
It has plenty to do with how poor their division and their conference has played to date, not to mention the fact the Flames (10-13-2) have played the most games in the league. Still, a start and a power play like theirs shouldn’t have them anywhere near a playoff race.
There have been increasing signs the players are finally grasping Gulutzan’s new system and are capable of playing low-risk, low-scoring affairs that have netted them a conference-best seven road wins (7-6-2).
However, the mood in town is down due to more than just the sagging local economy and price of oil. The team has the league’s worst home record at 3-7-0, leaving the once-jammed Saddledome with thousands of empty seats every game.
Fans have already been calling for the coach’s head, have written off Elliott completely and suggest it’s the big contracts for Gaudreau and Monahan that have affected their play most.
It couldn’t get much worse ‘round these parts for sports fans these days, especially given the football team’s latest playoff choke. Alas, it says here things are about to turn.
Stranger things have happened, like a jaded columnist not only predicting a radical turnaround, but citing analytics for the very first time.
