With the Toronto Maple Leafs set to embark on a lengthy and “painful” rebuild, they can’t afford to whiff on the highest pick the team has had in 26 years.
Fortunately for the tortured members of Leafs Nation, the top end of the draft is loaded with franchise-altering talent up front and on the back end making it tough to strike out at No. 4.
The question now becomes one of direction.
Do the Maple Leafs try and land a No. 1 centre they’ve been lacking since Mats Sundin skated off to Vancouver? Do they build from the blue line out and target a franchise defenceman? Do they just pick the best player available regardless of position?
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The answers to those questions will depend largely on what Arizona does with the third pick, but given what’s available the Leafs are going to add a central piece of their future regardless of what direction they go.
Here are five players the Leafs could target with the fourth-overall pick:
The only way to acquire a No. 1 franchise centre in the salary cap era is through the draft, and Toronto may have a shot at one in Dylan Strome.
A complete package of size, smarts and skill, Strome is exactly the type of prospect the Leafs are lacking within their system.
With 129 points in 68 games this season, Strome is the highest-scoring draft eligible player from the OHL since Patrick Kane in 2006-07. He did benefit playing in Connor McDavid’s shadow in Erie, but the OHL scoring leader showed he could carry the load offensively in McDavid’s absence. In 21 games without McDavid, Strome scored 1.67 points per game compared to the 2.08 in 45 games with the potential future Oiler.
The common criticism of Strome is his skating, which may not be his best asset but is also a little overblown. Given the time to properly develop, which is a crucial tenet of the Maple Leafs’ vision, Strome’s skating won’t be an issue.
The Mississauga, Ont., native could be off the board by the time Toronto is on the clock but if by chance he is still available at No. 4, it would be tough for Shanahan an co. not to take him.
When it comes to pure skill, Mitch Marner might be second only to McDavid in this draft class.
And based on recent comments by director of player personnel Mark Hunter, skill will be priority No. 1 at the draft.
“We’re looking at skill,” Hunter told the Toronto Star. “Skill to us is hockey sense. Puck skills. All the things that make a guy unique. But you can never leave out character. I have no problem with a 5-10 guy that is physically strong and can get down the ice. Who would not like the (Tyler) Johnson kid out of Tampa? He’s not that big, but he’s wide. He’s strong.
“That’s not going to stop us from drafting a smaller guy. But you want some bigger guys, too. But we will not just focus on big guys.”
Marner checks out when it comes to that criteria. He’s a magician with the puck on his stick and is a threat every time he is on the ice. And as good as he is with the puck, Marner’s defensive game is also quite strong. By all accounts he possess the character the Leafs will be looking for in a franchise cornerstone.
The only concerns with Marner are his size and strength, and to a lesser extent his position — No. 1 centres and defencemen are more coveted than top-line wingers.
It’s possible that Marner could be groomed as a centre — he did spend time in the middle this year — but there are no guarantees that will work out.
Even still, adding Marner after taking William Nylander last year would give the Leafs a ridiculous abundance of skill up front, regardless of position.
As we’ve seen with recent Stanley Cup champions, it’s hard to win in this league without a stud on the blue line.
Noah Hanifin could be that player for Toronto.
The top-ranked defenceman excels in all facets of the game and appears to have the physical and mental tools required to be a true No. 1 on the back end. In time, Hanifin could give the Maple Leafs one of the most dynamic D-pairings in the league playing alongside Morgan Rielly.
Because he played in the NCAA this year, Hanifin would also be eligible to play in the AHL next season, allowing him to start learning the Leafs systems right away. It’s a minor advantage, but one that could be better for his development.
Taking a defenceman over a prolific offensive forward isn’t always the most popular decision, but it may well be in the best interest of the franchise.
It’s unlikely that the Maple Leafs will look beyond the previously mentioned players with their pick, but Ivan Provorov might not be too far behind those three.
The Yaroslavl, Russia, native has all the tools you would look for in a top-end defenceman: elite offensive skills, intelligence and physicality needed to shut down the opposition.
Provorov finished the season fourth among WHL defencemen with 61 points (15-46) in 60 games and led all rookies in scoring.
If the Leafs decide to build from the back end out and target a defenceman at No. 4, they will have a tough decision to make between Provorov and Hanifin.
If it wasn’t for a broken knee cap that kept him out of action for 28 games, there’s a good chance Mathew Barzal would be pushing to go in the top-5 of the draft.
Barzal still finished the season with 12 goals and 57 points in 44 games for the Seattle Thunderbirds of the WHL. He also starred for Canada at the under-18 world championship, leading the team in scoring with 12 points in seven games.
Barzal has the speed, hands and vision the Maple Leafs are looking for and projects to be an impact top-two playmaking centre at the next level. The Leafs could certainly use more players like that in the pipeline.
