Superficially, the differences between Leon Draisaitl and Sam Bennett are far less obvious than the similarities.
The third- and fourth-overall picks, respectively, in the 2014 NHL Draft, Draisaitl and Bennett are both high-scoring centres out of major junior. Last season, Draisaitl put up 1.64 points per game in the WHL. He is generally described as heady playmaker with an exceptional ability to both gain and keep the puck. Bennett, who put up 1.60 points per game in the OHL, is also a highly-skilled passer who is strong on the puck. Both are even bound for remarkably similar destinations: the former to a rebuilding Oilers team in northern Alberta, the latter to a rebuilding Flames team in southern Alberta.
The GMs of those two teams, however, could not be further apart in their voiced public opinions on the players. “In my mind, I think that he’s going to make a very strong case [to make the team],” Edmonton’s Craig MacTavish said of Draisaitl late last week. “If this decision is easy, he’s staying. I don’t think he’s going to come in and not make a case for himself—I’d be shocked.”
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Given the current shape of the Oilers’ centre depth chart, Draisaitl might not only make the team, he just may find himself slotted in a role of extreme importance. Provided that he can outplay five-foot-nine AHL discovery Mark Arcobello, the 18-year-old could end up centering the team’s second line at even strength behind Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In Calgary, where 2013 sixth overall pick Sean Monahan made the jump from junior a year ago, the situation at the same position is a little more crowded. Monahan had a reasonably successful rookie season, and the team also has a trio of other serviceable—if not overpowering—options (Matt Stajan, Mikael Backlund and Joe Colborne) to play minutes at centre. That is perhaps why Flames G.M. Brad Treliving did his best to shoot down the notion that Bennett would be joining Calgary out of camp. “There are a lot of guys who can play in the league,” Treliving told Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. “But [the real questions are] can you help the team, and is it good for you? I would be shocked [if Bennett sticks]. He will have to come in here and show beyond a shadow of a doubt that, not only is he ready to be here, but this is what’s best for him.”
But it isn’t just the teams’ relative health at centre that is driving the difference in outlook between these two GMs; there are other factors that make Draisaitl a more appealing NHL option in 2014-15 than Bennett. Allan Mitchell, of the Oilers blog Lowetide, notes that not only is there an age difference of 237 days between the two players but Draisaitl has an inch and 26 pounds on Bennett. Those advantages translate to an immediate lead in terms of NHL readiness, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Draisaitl ends up making the Oilers while Bennett goes back to junior. But that would not indicate that Draisaitl has a massive lead on Bennett as a prospect.
A really good example of why is a comparison between two highly drafted centres a few years back. Jordan Staal, the second-overall pick in 2006, was listed at six-foot-four, 215 lbs.; pretty close to the six-foot-four, 220 lbs. he’s listed at these days. Staal was young relative to the rest of his draft class, but he was already incredibly mature physically, and he graduated to the Pittsburgh Penguins immediately. The player picked one slot later, Jonathan Toews, was a different story. At six-foot-one, 180 lbs. he was nearly 30 lbs. lighter than his eventual NHL playing weight. Chicago made the decision to give him an extra year in college to develop.
It’s hard to make a strong case that Staal needed to return to junior; he recorded 42 points, played nearly 15:00 per game for a playoff team, and appeared in 86 of a possible 87 post- and regular-season games. Debating whether he would have been better off waiting a year is moot—he was physically equipped for the rigours of NHL hockey and evolved into a fine player. Similarly, if the Oilers opt to employ Draisaitl at 18 because he’s got an NHL frame, it will be difficult to make a convincing case that they’ve made the wrong decision.
But by the same measure, if Draisaitl excels for the Oilers while Bennett is cut by the Flames, it won’t mean that Edmonton’s centre is a better player or a more promising prospect than Calgary’s, just like Staal’s early success didn’t make him superior to Toews. All it will mean is that two prospects at different points in their physical development drew disparate responses from a pair of distinct NHL teams. For players this age, the important thing isn’t how quickly they make the leap to the majors, but ultimately how good they are in their prime. Identifying who’s superior is going to take time, and it won’t be determined solely by the choices Alberta’s teams make this fall.