Well, it’s finally happening: An Era Adjusted piece about defenders.
Because as you all know, we can definitely judge how good a defenceman is based purely on the amount of points they score. Only an idiot would judge a defender by how well they defend.
I’m kidding. Put down your flaming crossbows.
With the Montreal Canadiens hosting the Detroit Red Wings, let’s look at a current Habs defender and compare him to another offensively-skilled defender who played for both teams.
Let’s look at the Era Adjusted stats of Shea Weber and compare them to Chris Chelios.
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Sometimes numbers make me laugh out loud and I definitely did that a few times while looking at Chelios’ numbers. His career was a marvellous combination of success and longevity.
My favourite stat is that Chelios played in 26 NHL seasons. You know who else has played in 26 NHL seasons? The San Jose Sharks. Yes, really.
Chelios’ career spanned several eras. His NHL career began the season after Steve Yzerman was drafted and didn’t end until after P.K. Subban’s rookie season. Chelios was drafted the year Raiders of the Lost Ark was released (1981) and he retired the year Toy Story 3 came out (2010). I could go on. It’s absolutely bananas.
If you don’t understand era adjusted numbers yet, looking at Chris Chelios is actually a good introduction. He played in the extremely high-scoring 1980s and early ’90s; the Dead Puck Era of the mid-1990s through the early 2000s, and after the post 2005-06 lockout boom. By comparing his raw point totals against his era adjusted ones, you can see how different seasons and eras were weighted.
For example, in Chelios’ highest-scoring season in 1988-89 he had 73 actual points. Adjusting for era however drops his total for that season down to 60 era adjusted points. Chelios’ highest-scoring season when adjusting for era was in 1995-96 where he had 69 era adjusted points and 72 actual points. Two different seasons, just one actual point apart, but one of them was slashed by 12 points while the other was only reduced by just three.
So – are Chris Chelios and Shea Weber similar at all?
Surprisingly, yes. But maybe not in terms of playing style. At six feet and 190 pounds, Chelios was on the small, yet tenacious side while the 6-foot-4, 230 pound “Man Mountain” — as Mike Babcock likes to say — that is Shea Weber is a different physical specimen.
In terms of career-bests, Chelios was far better than Weber at creating goals through assists. Chelios had eight seasons of 40 or more era adjusted assists while Weber, whose career high is 36, has never had one. If it weren’t for the 1994-95 lockout, Chelios likely would have had nine.
Weber however is the far superior goal-scorer. Chelios’ career-best year for era adjusted goals is the 17 he scored in 1987-88. Weber’s career high is 26 in 2013-14 and he has hit 17 era adjusted goals in a season nine times. If it weren’t for the 2012-13 lockout, that number would likely be 10. As a side note, another thing they share is having their career totals altered by annoying lockouts.
“Well, Weber is a powerplay specialist,” some of you might say. “Weber just scores all his goals on the powerplay.”
Funny you should say that.
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Out of the 187 goals Weber has scored in his career so far, 94 of them have been on the powerplay. That’s almost exactly half, which is bonkers. Only 37 per cent of Chelios’ career goals came on the powerplay.
In terms of point totals however, 42.7 per cent of Weber’s career points have come on the powerplay while 42.9 per cent of Chelios’ points have. They’re not just almost identical – Chelios got a (slightly) higher percentage of his points on the powerplay than Weber!
Despite Chelios having a better career-high in points than Weber, they’re not that far apart season-to-season. So far, Weber has six seasons of scoring 50 or more era adjusted points while Chelios has just one more at seven. In fairness, Chelios had two seasons at 60 or more era adjusted points to Weber’s one, and even that number would be three if, stop me if you’ve heard this before, one of his best seasons wasn’t shortened by a lockout.
This last comparable isn’t very scientific but it’s fun anyway. Chelios finished top five in Norris voting seven times, including three wins. Weber has finished top five in Norris voting five times, and finished sixth last season, and has yet to win it.
Some of you might have laughed at the “yet” part, but here’s some food for thought:
Chelios’ best season for era-adjusted scoring was in 1994-95 when he was 34-years-old. Chelios played more seasons after that one (13), than he did before it (12). I guess what I’m saying is never say never.
In reality, era adjusted numbers are mostly just a conversation starter, or more realistically, an easy way to start an argument with your friends. You can compare Connor McDavid to Wayne Gretzky, or Alex Ovechkin to Brett Hull, but we’ll never get to see them duke it out in their prime. With defenders, the waters get even murkier.
All I’ll say is this: Right now, Weber’s offensive numbers aren’t far off from Cherlios’ offensive numbers. Chris Chelios is in the Hockey Hall of Fame.
I’m just sayin’.
