In the regular season, only three players (Jaromir Jagr, Connor McDavid, and Patrick Kane) produced points at even strength at a higher rate than the Washington Capitals’ Evgeny Kuznetsov. However, Kuznetsov has been ice cold in the playoffs, with just one goal and one assist in 11 games, both of which came on the power play.
Kuznetsov was the league’s leader in primary assists at even strength, both in total number and pro-rated per minute played. But he only scored 11 goals while playing five-on-five, which means his point production was more reliant on playmaking than most players.
Fort McMurray Fire Relief: Help support those affected by the Fort McMurray fires. You can make a contribution at redcross.ca or by texting FIRES to 45678 to donate $10.
That doesn’t excuse his lack of production in the playoffs, but it gives us a clue at what to look for when trying to figure out why he’s struggling to produce.
Let’s break it down.
Kuznetsov is definitely a pass-first player most times, but in the playoffs he has started to shoot more often, and is actually generating a ton of individual scoring chances relative to his peers. That’s certainly not a bad thing, but Kuznetsov isn’t successfully hitting the slot with passes as often as he did during the season.
In an ideal world, the increase in Kuznetsov’s own scoring chances would result in his goal totals rising and making up for fewer high leverage passes being completed, but when players play outside their comfort zones, they tend to struggle a bit, especially in the short term.
Kuznetsov isn’t playing poorly at all, he’s just not playing his normal style. There’s some bad luck involved in his lack of goal scoring for sure, as he’s scoring on just three per cent of his shots on goal, as opposed to 10.4 per cent in the regular season, and 9.9 per cent in his career.
The reason why Kuznetsov is playing differently in the playoffs could be as simple as the higher pace of play, which makes the pretty passing plays he’s known for more difficult to complete. Or it could be external pressures such as the coaching staff instructing him to shoot more, but the results so far have been underwhelming.
However, that doesn’t mean he is playing poorly. Just look at his monthly scoring chance generation.
It was around the New Year when Kuznetsov went from a very good player, to one of the NHL’s best in terms of generating scoring chances for his teammates, and while he dipped slightly in April, he remained elite.
Because of the nature of the playoffs — and with the Capitals facing elimination — we may not get to see the deserved regression to the mean that Kuznetsov should have coming to him.
He’s one of the NHL’s best offensive forwards, but don’t let his point totals fool you into thinking he’s been playing below his level.
Things just haven’t been going his way.
