I don’t expect to hit a home run with this column each and every week, but it bears mentioning that those who went ahead and followed my buy low recommendations from last week’s column were very handsomely rewarded. Both Marian Gaborik and Craig Smith doubled their season point totals in one game, while Oscar Klefbom had three points in three games and Mikael Granlund hit the score sheet.
For my sake – and yours – let’s hope I can continue my momentum this week.
Four Buy Low Players
Cam Fowler – While the stats of all Ducks rearguards are still suffering due to the team’s early struggles, Fowler’s are particularly brutal, including the worst +/- rating among Ducks defencemen through the weekend. But Anaheim has unwavering confidence in Fowler, whose ice time – both in general and on the PP – are actually higher than his averages from last season. The reality is the arrival of Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen has made poolies doubt Fowler more than they should; but this concern just makes Fowler an even better buy low. Grab him and be confident he’ll produce 30-35 additional points over the rest of the season.
Tomas Tatar – The subpar start by Tatar isn’t too difficult to diagnose, and should be ending very soon. Not only did he emerge slow out of the gate last season (two points in ten October games), but according to Frozen Pool Tatar played nearly half of his even strength shifts in 2014-15 with Pavel Datsyuk, who’d been injured until late last week. Now that it’s November and Datsyuk is back, Tatar should return to form very quickly, which means the window to get Tatar for less than his actual value is closing fast.
Mike Ribeiro – While he won’t win any popularity contests among NHL players or fans, Ribeiro has scored at a 60+ point full season pace in seven (70+ in four) of the past eight seasons. Much like his frequent linemate Craig Smith, we’re just witnessing an extended slow start from Ribeiro, who had two points in Smith’s breakout game on Saturday. If your league doesn’t count SOG or FOW, Ribeiro is a solid buy low whom you should do your best to acquire while his value is still somewhat discounted.
Ryan Spooner – On the heels of his 18 points in just 29 games last season, poolies were no doubt disappointed to see Spooner not part of the top six for the Bruins, causing many to write him off for the season. But it’s becoming clearer by the day that Spooner can produce no matter where the team plays him, especially if he’s able to stay on Boston’s red hot PP1 and can keep averaging roughly 2.5 points per 60 minutes at 5×5, putting him within the top 10% among NHL forwards in that stat.
Four Sell High Players
Artemi Panarin – Right now, Panarin looks unstoppable and is playing with confidence poolies don’t usually see from a rookie, even one who – like Panarin – is 24 years old. But here’s a sobering fact – in the past 25 years, there have 38 forwards who played 70+ games as a 24 year old rookie, and only one posted 60+ points. Also, Panarin has never appeared in more than 54 games in any of his professional seasons, so he’s bound to get fatigued after the New Year. As painful as it might be, you have to at least consider selling high on Panarin in one year leagues at some point soon.
Jake Allen – Players can appear on this list because – like Allen – their value is simply too high, as opposed to them being at risk for playing significantly worse. Some poolies see what Allen has done early on and think this will be the end of the notorious St. Louis goalie share. But the reality is the last time any Blues netminder had more than 30 wins in a single season was 2003-04, and barring a major injury it most likely won’t happen in 2015-16 despite Allen shining thus far. In leagues counting wins or saves, if you can trade Allen for an entrenched #1 goalie you have to strongly consider doing so.
Travis Zajac – While it’s true that Zajac is still only 30 and someone on the Devils has to score, what we’ve seen from him over the first chunk of the season is unsustainable, especially his stratospherically high shooting percentage. Cumulatively over the past five seasons Zajac hasn’t even averaged one point per every other game, so what we’ve seen has been simply a cluster of scoring, as evidenced by him being held scoreless in his last three games through the weekend. If you have Zajac in your league be glad you were there to enjoy the early ride, but now you need to sell before he morphs completely back into waiver wire fodder.
Colton Parayko – A good chunk of the hype surrounding Parayko right now is due to poolies envisioning the next John Klingberg, who broke out last season and of course now is posting numbers worthy of Erik Karlsson. The reality is Parayko is not Klingberg 2.0. They play very different styles and, unlike Klingberg, Parayko has Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo standing in the way of him getting the ice time needed to post huge numbers. Do your team a favor and cash in on the current Parayko hype in one-year leagues.
