Welcome to the first installment of our weekly column featuring “sell high” and “buy low” recommendations for fantasy hockey leagues. Although the column is geared toward one-year, points-only leagues with unlimited trades and free agent pick-ups, I’ll mix in useful tidbits for keeper leagues, multi-category leagues, and leagues with a set number of waiver wire moves.
General Advice for October
Before I get to specific recommendations for this week, here are some general things to keep in mind during October. A big key is balancing the reality that many of the best waiver wire grabs happen this month, with the fact you shouldn’t rush to judgment about some of the players on your team.
Right now, sell high candidates often fall into two categories – players who look like they won’t meet expectations, but still have enough name recognition for you to trade them for good value and players who produced well in the pre-season or first few games, but won’t realistically continue their pace.
Buy lows are usually players who are a lock to do well over the course of the season, but are being discounted because they’re not hyped – and those who were headline-grabbing disappointments in the first few games of the season.
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Four Sell High Players
Keith Yandle – Although Yandle is one of only three defencemen (P.K. Subban, Erik Karlsson) to tally 50-plus points in each of the past two seasons, even great players can struggle in bad situations. And in New York, Yandle isn’t a very good fit. Through the weekend (and just like last season with the Blueshirts) Yandle ranks fifth among Ranger rearguards with just under 19:00 of ice time per game. The last time a defenceman posted 45-plus points while averaging less than 20:00 per game was in 2007-08. Yandle will be a UFA this summer, but in one-year leagues he’s a must sell.
Jonathan Toews – This has nothing to do with his unparalleled excellence and leadership. Toews, despite having all kinds of skill, doesn’t translate as a very fantasy-friendly player. He has posted 70-plus points once in seven full seasons, yet he’s still, on average, drafted 16th overall in Yahoo leagues. That’s ahead of Jakub Voracek, Ryan Getzlaf and Joe Pavelski, who should all end up outscoring him just like they did last season. Trade Toews to get one of them and a throw-in with upside.
John Carlson – Here’s a case of an excellent player who simply isn’t as outstanding as he performed last season. Carlson had a point on a jaw-dropping 54 per cent of the goals that were scored while he was on the ice at 5-on-5, and an even more amazing 80 per cent at 5-on-4. Those rates would be high for a forward; for a defenceman, they’re completely unsustainable. Even with Mike Green out of the picture, Carlson should see his scoring total drop.
Ryan Miller – This is less of a sell high and more of a sell before it’s too late, as Miller bears no resemblance to the elite goalie he was in 2009-10. With the Canucks in pseudo-rebuild, Miller could eventually lose time to Jacob Markstrom or get traded. And when Miller was dished to St. Louis in 2013-14, he flopped. But since Miller is still being picked among the top 20 netminders in Yahoo drafts and has performed well early in 2015-16, you should be able to find a taker for him. And when you do, pull the trigger!
Four Buy Low Players
Nick Bjugstad – Those of you in one-year, multi-category leagues: what if you could own one of just four players who posted 24-plus goals, 125-plus Hits, and 200-plus shots last season? How about if this player wouldn’t cost you near as much as the other three (Alex Ovechkin, Andrew Ladd, Scott Hartnell) and likely will add another 10 points to his 2014-15 total? You can, if you act quickly to obtain Bjugstad, who at age 23 is already a multi-category force and, at average Yahoo pick 170, is a true buy low.
David Savard – Clearly Savard is less of a sleeper compared to this time last season, since he’s posted 36 points and signed a big contract. But the beauty is you can still get him for roughly 35-point value even though he’s a good bet for 45 points this season. Remember, Savard scored at a 50-point pace over the final 23 games last season and will surely get more power play time this season. Savard is in a good position to step up to be “the guy” for Columbus in 2015-16.
Jonathan Drouin – Usually it’s difficult to buy low on a recent top three pick; but you might be able to land Drouin cheap by pointing to his 32 points in 70 games last season and painting it as a sign he’s falling short of expectations. But last season was a mirage, as the Lightning had training wheels on Drouin and early signs are he could explode this season. After all, he looks to be developing chemistry with Steven Stamkos; and we know from the past that once someone meshes with Stamkos they tend to stay stapled to him and plenty of points are there to go around.
Benoit Pouliot – It’s been 10 years and six different teams since Pouliot was drafted fourth overall and he’s never scored more than 36 points in a season. But look for him to easily eclipse that total in 2015-16, as he’s locked into a top six spot with the Oilers. Pouliot’s 34 points from last season are very well disguised, since he actually posted 16 points in his final 20 games, which means you should be able to grab him from the waiver wire or as a trade throw in.
