In last week’s column, I emphasized the need to focus on recent trends more than year-to-date stats. For those who aren’t in points-only leagues, at this stage of the season it’s also just as important – if not more so – to take a long look at where your team stands in each category. Why? Because that’s more crucial when analyzing your team than any one player’s general value.
For example, if your team has a big lead in assists but needs more goals, then a well-suited buy-low defenceman could be one who has a history of good goal totals, but somehow this year hasn’t found the back of the net as much as expected (like Dennis Wideman). At the same time, a sell-high candidate, given your team’s needs, could be a rearguard whose shooting percentage is more than double his career average (like Duncan Keith).
With each passing week, you should increasingly factor in your category strengths and weaknesses when deciding buy low and sell high players since it’s no longer just about getting the best deal on paper. You want to improve your team where it counts: in the standings.
Here are your buy lows and sell highs for this week – be sure to see how they fit into your team’s needs before pulling the trigger on any of them.
Four Buy-Low Players
Kris Letang – You’re probably wondering how a defenceman who is on fire and in the top five at his position in points per game could be a buy low candidate. What it boils down to is that his current owners are likely petrified he’ll get hurt again and thus open to trading him for less than his true value, which is barely below Erik Karlsson in multi-cat leagues, when he’s healthy. If your team can tolerate the risk/reward of Letang, he’s worth trying to acquire from a scared GM.
Robin Lehner – This season’s forgotten goalie, Lehner should be back in the NHL soon. If a fellow GM held on to him for this long, then he’s not a buy low. But if your league has 25-plus rostered goalies with Lehner on the waiver wire, he’s worth a grab. After all, he’s likely to get the lion’s share of starts for the Sabres, who sit in the middle of the pack in GAA and shots against per game, making Lehner a likely upgrade over a part-time goalie (e.g., James Reimer or Jimmy Howard) you might have on your roster.
Jeff Skinner – Recent improved production from Skinner remains obscured by dismal totals that stretch back to last season. Don’t try prying Skinner away from a GM in your league who held onto him through his struggles, because if he hasn’t given up on Skinner yet it will cost too much to get him now. But in leagues where Skinner is on the waiver wire, he’s a worthwhile add in hopes he’s rediscovered at least a semblance of his early-career fantasy success.
Charlie Coyle – So far, Coyle has been a fantasy afterthought among Wild pivots. But he had a recent run of nine points in as many games, and did so with less than 16:00 of ice time per game, which is roughly three minutes less than Mikael Granlund. With Granlund once again not making the leap this season, Coyle’s ice time is bound to improve and with it his production as well. If you’re in need of a forward with 45-50 point scoring pace potential for the remainder of this season, consider latching on to Coyle before he lands on the radar of astute GMs in your league.
Four Sell-High Players
Connor Hellebuyck – No question Hellebuyck is the goalie of the future for the Jets, but we’re living in the present. As long as high-paid Ondrej Pavelec is still around, Hellebuyck won’t be a No. 1. With Pavelec poised to get back on the ice soon, Hellebuyck might just suffer a fate much like Tuukka Rask and Cory Schneider did several years ago and step aside despite being better than the veteran presence ahead of them on the depth chart. Like those other two Hellebuyck’s time will come. But for now he’s regrettably a sell-high in one-year leagues.
Evgeny Kuznetsov – No, this isn’t déjà vu, you’re seeing Kuznetsov’s name here for the second time this season, after we made him a sell high due to his impending banishment to the second line. I’ll give him credit that his production hasn’t waned, but he’s a sell high for a second time because, through the weekend, he had the second-lowest SOG total among the top 15 forwards in points. He was also averaging at least a minute less ice time per game than anyone else in the top 15 in scoring. This suggests his output is not sustainable.
Kevin Shattenkirk – After an amazing stretch that saw him hit the scoresheet in 15 of 17 games (19 total points), Shattenkirk has somewhat cooled. Before his health struggles this season and last, Shattenkirk’s other shortcoming was his propensity to produce less as the season wore on. In one-year leagues (and amid trade rumours), now might be the time to dangle Shattenkirk’s name out there and at least listen to offers you might receive for him.
Jamie McGinn – We know from his 38 points in 79 games in 2013-14 that McGinn can produce. The difference is that season he averaged more than two SOG per game, while this season he’s shooting less, which suggests (along with past seasons of poor output) he won’t come close to keeping up this pace. Those of you in deeper leagues who picked up McGinn, it’s either time to try to trade him or turn to another player on the waiver wire who’ll give you better scoring output over the rest of the season.