One of the most challenging aspects of any fantasy draft is goalie selection. Knowing who to take is a challenge, but knowing when to take them is what can really swing your draft. It’s all too easy to get caught up in the momentum of a goalie rush only to find you reached for a mediocre talent you could have gotten a few rounds later.
The first key is to understand your league’s scoring. There is a big difference in goalie value depending on whether you play in a points-based system or one with multiple scoring categories.
No matter your system the top goalies are always going to come out smelling like roses, but in a points-based system there isn’t a large discrepancy between goalies just below the elite and those ranking in the middle and lower end of the pack. With multiple scoring categories there is a larger setting for goalies to separate themselves from one another.
But we don’t always know who the elite goalies are going to be. Did anyone predict Semyon Varlamov would lead the league in wins two years ago? How about Devan Dubnyk emerging from the desert to lead the Wild to the playoffs last season? There can be a ton of randomness in the goalie game.
The best solution for dealing with that randomness is to create a tiered system. Instead of focusing on specific goalies to draft and relying on them to meet their projected numbers, instead break your goalies up into groups where everyone has a similar projection. That way, instead of being held hostage by any one player, you can instead focus on drafting for value. For example:
Carey Price should be the highest-ranked goaltender in fantasy hockey this season or, at the very least, in the top three. If you take him as the first goalie off the board it doesn’t guarantee you’ll get the best goalie performance of the season. But if you break it down by projected value, you’ll find a group of goalies all with similar projections to Price who you can get later on in the draft. In the end, those goalies could end up with better numbers than Price. That’s how you find value on draft day.
To employ this strategy you’ll need to read the draft room, keep track of which teams have already filled their goalie slots and how many turns there are between picks. As a general rule, if it’s your pick and there are still plenty of goalies from the highest tier available then you don’t need to take one of them. Odds are there will still be someone from that tier available when your next pick comes around.
This may be a bit difficult to conceptualize so let’s look at some actual tiers based on our projections for a head-to-head league with 2ins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts as scoring categories. You’ll find each player’s Yahoo! Average Draft Position (ADP) in brackets and the best value pick for each tier in bold.
Tier One – The Elite
Carey Price (6)
Henrik Lundqvist (13)
Braden Holtby (24)
Pekka Rinne (21)
Ben Bishop (28)
Each goalie in this tier has a chance to win 40 games, earn 10 shutouts and have quality totals in GAA and save percentage.
Bishop is the most questionable goalie in the elite tier, but with Andrei Vasilevskiy out with a blood clot there is no one good enough to take starts from him. Skating behind the defending Eastern Conference champs, Bishop is a good bet to lead the league in wins. In a 10-team fantasy league you can get him with a late third round pick.
Tier Two – Great Talent But We Have Questions
Sergei Bobrovsky (58)
Marc-Andre Fleury (31)
Devan Dubnyk (34)
Jonathan Quick (21)
Tuukka Rask (24)
Cory Schneider (56)
Several of the goalies in this tier have an ADP worthy of a top tier goalie. It’s a good bet that at least one of these guys will break into the top five by season’s end. Why take a guess at which one it will be when you can instead focus on mining value?
There are some lingering questions about Bobrovsky’s ability to put together a full season, but one thing is for certain: his March/April numbers are off the charts. That’s when you need your best performance in a head-to-head league:
Bobrovsky March/April – 81 starts, 50 wins, 2.19 GAA, .929 save percentage, eight shutouts.
Tier Three – The Soft Middle
Frederik Andersen (94)
Jaroslav Halak (64)
Corey Crawford (43)
Craig Anderson (148)
Roberto Luongo (68)
Semyon Varlamov (75)
These goalies fall into two categories: Average Goalie/Good Team or Good Goalie/Average Team. None of them will hurt you, but if they are your No. 1 they may not help much either.
Anderson is offering a great deal of value going some 100 picks later than Crawford and at least 50 picks later than anyone else in the tier. He has injury concerns, but is otherwise one of the best value picks available.
Tier Four – The Tandems
Brian Elliott (100)
Jake Allen (109)
Jonas Hiller (93)
Kari Lehtonen (152)
Jimmy Howard (125)
Petr Mrazek (168)
Ondrej Pavelec (117)
Antti Niemi (166)
Michael Hutchinson (173)
Karri Ramo (167)
If deployed correctly a good tandem goalie can actually make for a strong No. 2 and certainly an excellent No. 3. However, deploying them requires diligence as you may not know who is starting on a nightly basis. Fortunately, Goaliepost is a service that can eliminate the guesswork.
A tandem goalie offers upside in that he can wrest the starting gig and become a full-time starter with good play or a timely injury. There is some strategy to bypassing a Tier 3 goalie in favour of a strong Tier 4.
Tier Five – Getting Desperate
Martin Jones (134)
Steve Mason (85)
Ryan Miller (78)
Cam Talbot (155)
Robin Lehner (180)
Jonathan Bernier (173)
Cam Ward (183)
Mike Smith (168)
These starters are either outright bad or playing for some pretty bad teams. There is still some value to be mined. Mason put up a very strong fantasy season last year despite his poor track record and a miserable defence in front of him. You don’t want these guys starting too many games for your fantasy squad though.
CONCLUSION
This should help guide you through your draft. Employing tiers is a simple strategy that helps to take some of the guess work out of selecting goalies and instead focusing on finding value. We’d wish you good luck, but with this strategy in your back pocket, you won’t need it.
Steve is a Managing Editor at DobberHockey. Give him a follow on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw. And as the perfect supplement to your Sportsnet Fantasy Guide check out Dobber’s 10th annual Fantasy Guide here.
