The fantasy hockey season is in its stretch run, and that means trade deadlines will be approaching.
Most leagues should see their deadline hit in the next four or five weeks, so time is running out to make impactful trades. The earlier the trades can be made, the better.
Here’s a look at who to target when buying low and selling high.
Buy Low
Jason Pominville (Minnesota – Right Wing)
It’s been a rough season for a lot of Minnesota players, but the issue has typically been in goal. Pominville is actually averaging his highest shot per game total of his career (3.08) while simultaneously averaging his lowest goals per game rate (0.19).
He’s been moved off the top line, but that may mean easier matchups, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing. It is worrisome his average five-on-five shot is from over 35 feet away, but his last couple of years have been over 34 feet, so it’s not abnormal for Pominville.
Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado – Left Wing)
In fantasy, it’s sink-or-swim time for owners sitting on Colorado players. Guys like Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel Landeskog have all under-performed this year, and it may be a lost cause. There will be a turn-around, but it may be next year instead of this one.
Landeskog is shooting from over 33 feet at five-on-five, which isn’t great, but he was at 31 feet in his rookie year, and at 32.7 feet in his sophomore season. Landeskog could pot double-digit goals over the rest of the season. It’s a stretch, but those are typically the trades that need to be made to succeed this late in the season.
Cam Atkinson (Columbus – Right Wing)
Columbus will struggle the rest of the season, but of late, Atkinson has been moved on a line with Ryan Johansen (via Left Wing Lock), and that’s a pretty good place to be.
What gives Atkinson value is his shot rate; at 2.71 shots per game, Atkinson isn’t far off from shooters like Landeskog (2.88) and Ryan Kesler (2.90). Also, over the last two 82-game seasons, there were 92 forwards who played at least 70 games and had at least 2.7 shots on goal per game (from the Hockey Reference Play Index). Of those 92 forwards, just five finished the year with under 20 goals (Atkinson’s pace now). With new line mates and a decent chance of a goal explosion, Atkinson could be a fantasy semi-star down the stretch.
The latest matchups for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play were released yesterday with a focus on the Toronto-Philadelphia game on Saturday night. Toronto is one of the lowest scoring road teams in the NHL, and their recent dry spell is concerning. I wouldn’t hesitate to go for an all-Flyers sweep.
Sell High
Nick Foligno (Columbus – Left Wing)
This is the last call to derive any value possible from Nick Foligno. The All-Star captain is having an all-star season, but it’s his first all-star-type season, and he’s 27-years-old.
For his career coming into this season, Foligno was a career 11.3 per cent shooter. So far this year, that number is at 19.4 per cent, and he hasn’t scored in six straight games. It’s not impossible that he maintains a high rate for the rest of the year, but I wouldn’t bank on it. If he can still be traded as a top-30 forward or so, now is a good time to get value for him.
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay – Right Wing)
The fantasy community, and probably the Lightning fans community, absolutely love the second line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat. On January 7th in this column, I recommended trading high on Tyler Johnson, and he has zero goals and three assists in six games since (yes, an injury may have slowed him down, too).
Kucherov sits at 3.16 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five this year, good for fourth in the NHL. His mark is so good, in fact, that it would have led the NHL last year. In other words, he’s either a top four or five offensive talent in the NHL, or he will slow down, and I’m betting on the latter.
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Mike Hoffman (Ottawa – Left Wing)
The NHL All-Star Weekend may have introduced some more casual players to Mike Hoffman. Now is the time for savvy fantasy owners to introduce these players to a trade offer of Mike Hoffman.
Hoffman has averaged 0.37 goals per game this year; from 2010-2013 in the American Hockey League, Hoffman averaged 0.21. Maybe he’s just better now, but that’s a massive increase. For those that got their value out of him – especially because of his enormous plus-19 rating – now is the time for a trade.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, Left Wing Lock, and Behind The Net.
