For all the revelations that have come into the public domain about hockey over the last half-decade, goaltending remains largely a mystery. Work done by Eric Tulsky in the past has shown that it can take up to 5,000 even-strength shots faced for a goalie’s true talent level to emerge. Even a full season’s worth of shots has a reasonable chance of being completely luck.
There are indicators to look for in specific categories when looking for a goalie to rebound. For those lagging in certain goaltending statistics in fantasy, here are some goalies to target in the trade market. Remember: Just because a goalie might help in one category doesn’t mean he will help in all of them.
Goals Against Average
Goals-against average is a team statistic. Last year, Steve Mason and Corey Crawford had the same save percentage (.917) but were nearly a quarter of a goal apart in GAA (2.50 and 2.26, respectively). Why? Philadelphia gave up an extra 3.4 shots per game than Chicago did, and that adds up over a season.
Knowing this, it seems obvious that targeting goalies that come from teams that don’t give up a lot of shots, or shot attempts, is the way to go when trying to lower GAA in fantasy hockey.
Cory Schneider (New Jersey Devils)
Schneider had a terrible start to the season, posting a .906 save percentage and 2.90 GAA in October. Since then, his GAA has been a stellar 2.22. For all the problems the Devils have, they are still fourth-best in the NHL in even-strength shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes since November 1st. That shot suppression goes a long way into stabilizing Schneider’s GAA.
Michael Hutchinson (Winnipeg Jets)
It’s been a good year for the Jets, as they are a top-10 team in puck possession and sit in a playoff spot. Another part of the turnaround is they don’t have one of the worst goalies in the NHL taking 50 or more starts. Ondrej Pavelec has given up at least four goals in five of his last seven games, while Hutchinson has done that once in 18 games all year. Winnipeg is giving up the seventh-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes at even-strength since Nov. 1, and the starter’s job looks to be Hutchinson’s now. This is probably the final window to get him at a reasonable price on the trade market.
Roberto Luongo (Florida Panthers)
He will probably cost the most of all three goalies to acquire, but I’m willing to wager that in some leagues there’s a Luongo owner who doesn’t believe the Panthers are a good team (and they are). Florida is just behind Winnipeg – and ahead of Chicago – in shot suppression since the start of Nov. 1 (via War On Ice). Buy now before that owner changes his or her mind.
Luongo looks to be a good goalie to grab this week for Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool here on Sportsnet.ca. It’s a salary-cap-style game with both weekly and grand prizes. Florida faces Winnipeg, Colorado, and Edmonton, with only the first game being on the road. Luongo doesn’t even cost full value this week (like Tuukka Rask does).
Save Percentage
Tuukka Rask (Boston Bruins)
He was bound to make an appearance, if only because he’s had a down season to date. Since Zdeno Chara returned, Boston is sixth in fewest shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five; the Bruins are fifth in fewest shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes while shorthanded. That should help Rask’s goals against average, but his save percentage should rebound as well – his .846 save percentage on the penalty kill is nearly 20 points lower than his previous career-low of .865 in the lockout-shortened season.
Jonas Hiller (Calgary)
Calgary will be in for a regression in the second half, and that process may have already started. That said, Hiller is sporting a .774 save percentage on the penalty kill. For reference, the lowest save percentage on the penalty kill last year belonged to Anders Lindback at .804, and no other goalie was under .830 (minimum of 100 shots faced). Hiller’s save percentage should rebound a bit.
Jonathan Quick (Los Angeles)
While Quick’s numbers have been getting worse by the month, there’s an argument to be made that Los Angeles is getting better by the month, too. Out of 27 goalies who have faced at least 100 shots on the penalty kill, Quick ranks last in save percentage at .830. His previous career low is .853 (2009-10) and he hasn’t been below .860 since.
The first set of players were released for this week’s Sportsnet Pick ‘n Play, with the focus on Saturday’s Islanders-Canadiens game. With John Tavares in a matchup against defenceman P.K. Subban, I would definitely take Tavares.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, War On Ice, NHL.com, SB Nation, and Arctic Ice Hockey