Are the Florida Panthers getting enough quality shots under Tom Rowe?

Reilly Smith scored a short-handed goal to break a third-period tie, and the Florida Panthers beat the reeling Colorado Avalanche 3-1 on Friday night.

After the shockingly large controversy surrounding the Florida Panthers letting go Gerard Gallant in late November, you could tell that if new head coach and former general manager Tom Rowe couldn’t get the team onto a hot streak quickly, media was going to be nipping at his heels.

Unfortunately for Rowe and the Panthers, they have just a 3-3-4 record since. The team’s official website is spinning it as points in seven of 10 games, which sounds nice, but the results have been underwhelming to say the least.

That record is a bit surprising given that they have produced a 54.45 score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi over that time, but a common critique has been that the Panthers have been shooting from a distance, not generating scoring chances like they were under Gallant.

Luckily this is something that we can verify, so let’s look at the Panthers this season under both coaches at even strength.

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As a percentage of total shot attempts at even strength, it looks like that narrative holds true, as overall a lower portion of the Panthers’ shot attempts under Tom Rowe have been from dangerous areas of the ice. Some would suggest that means the Panthers are trying to “game Corsi”, but I’m not so sure of that.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the Panthers have produced about six more shot attempts per hour under Rowe than under Gallant, so the per-minute numbers may look a little different.

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When you look at the number of scoring chances the Panthers are producing on a per-20-minute basis, the results look much different. In fact, while Rowe has seen a slight decline in overall scoring chances, the Panthers have seen a slight increase in shot attempts from the inner slot or high danger area.

The Panthers under Rowe are also shooting less from outside the offensive zone, something that the team did 2.64 per cent of the time under Gallant.

What’s obvious is that the uptick in overall shot attempts under Rowe is mostly coming from the perimeter, which isn’t great, but all shots have some chance to go in, so it’s not necessarily bad either.

The real question about the changing shot locations of the Panthers is whether that can account for their goal production stagnating, and the answer is no. The change in where the Panthers are shooting from just isn’t very extreme, and it’s not nearly a big enough change to see them score on just 4.05 per cent of their shots at 5-vs-5 under Rowe, after scoring on 7.04 per cent under Gallant.

Maybe some changes in tactics have driven poor short-term results in terms of finishing, but the current performance of the Panthers’ shooters simply isn’t a long-term problem. In fact, the current dip in shooting percentage for the Panthers began the week before Gallant was fired, and the team has yet to rebound.

The bigger problem for the Panthers is that they have had trouble producing scoring chances all year long, just barely keeping above 50 per cent of scoring chances under both coaches, which has led to inconsistent goal scoring.

If they’re to rebound from their poor start this season, they’ll need to find a way to reformat their offensive strategies, because they have the talent there. It just isn’t working.

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