LOS ANGELES — The balance of the Toronto Maple Leafs season is going to be all about playing the percentages.
High-risk, high-reward hockey hasn’t been particularly kind to this group, despite how fun it often seems in the moment. Under interim coach Peter Horachek, the Leafs plan to squeeze the life out of the game with the sort of patient, grind-it-out style that the top teams in the Western Conference have long since mastered.
It nearly worked at Staples Center on Monday night, where the Leafs limited the defending Stanley Cup champions to 20 shots while only mustering 19 themselves. It was a tight, physical game that featured just two goals — both scored by Los Angeles, one into an empty net.
“I think that’s the way we want to play,” said veteran Leafs defenceman Stephane Robidas. “We’re trying to move forward. Tonight is playoff hockey; we came up short, but we made a push for the game. It was a 1-0 game going into the third period in a tough building against the Stanley Cup champion on the other side.
“They know how to play with the lead, they know how to defend, it’s a team that doesn’t give you much. I thought it was a good game from our side. If we play like that, we’re going to win way more games than we’re going to lose.”
That’s what this group is betting on, anyway, and you can understand the gamble.
More than half of Toronto’s games this season have been decided by at least three goals and playing that way was leading them down a path to ruin. The 5-2 victories were mighty satisfying. The 9-2 and 5-1 and 7-4 losses were discouraging.
So they will push ahead and try to play more games where the shot clock reads 20-19 with the belief that a talented group of forwards and above-average goaltending can give them an edge on those nights.
What stood out in Los Angeles was how few quality scoring chances the Leafs were able to generate. James van Riemsdyk made a couple nice power moves while driving to the net. Richard Panik had a dangerous tip on a point shot; Nazem Kadri clanged a shot off the post.
And that was basically it.
It is a consequence of playing a highly-structured opponent and having your forwards more committed to playing defence than trying to start an odd-man rush up the ice.
If there was any regret, it came from a largely ineffective power play that produced just three shots on three opportunities. The Leafs were even gifted a man advantage late in regulation but didn’t get one shot through to Kings backup goalie Martin Jones.
“We think that we’re going to score some goals,” said Horachek. “You’ve just got to get comfortable playing that way. You’re going to be in more games (playing defensively) and you’re going to take advantage of teams that don’t play that way more often because you’re playing harder.”
Despite being 1-2-0 since Horachek replaced Randy Carlyle a week ago, the mood in the visiting locker-room was fairly upbeat.
“I thought we deserved better,” said Leafs goalie Jonathan Bernier. “We’re feeling pretty good about ourselves even if we lost.”
“There’s a lot of good things and a lot of positives that come out of that game,” added Robidas.
With a new coaching staff, and a new attitude, you can understand the desire to grasp for moral victories. It’s just a tough time of year to be doing it.
The Leafs have slipped three points behind Boston for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference and when you look at the standings it’s tough to imagine who they might eventually supplant.
A stretch of three wins in 12 games has left Toronto with just a 28.8 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, according to sportsclubstats.com, and the odds could be considerably worse after impending visits to Anaheim, San Jose and St. Louis.
For an indication of how important this road trip is you need only look to the executive box. Four of the team’s top executives were in attendance at Staples Center: president Brendan Shanahan; general manager Dave Nonis; assistant general manager Kyle Dubas; and assistant to the general manager Brandon Pridham.
That’s unusual.
However, with the March 2 trade deadline not too far off on the horizon and the recent coaching change, everything is under close review. Management has been happy with the defensive improvements the team has displayed since Horachek took over.
“I think you expect that early bump,” said Dubas. “Now we’re going to get a test of whether we can sustain it and the messaging continues to stay consistent as we move on from here. It’s a long process ahead and obviously we’re right outside the playoff pool right now and we want to get in there.”
Even though the percentages don’t currently paint a rosy picture, the organization figures it at least has a shot playing conservatively rather than run-and-gun.