The hockey trade is a necessary evil that must be avoided whenever possible.
In a perfect world, your drafting skills are so refined, your lottery number–plucking so expert, that your starting roster will mirror your finish-line roster. Of course, any gambler with one hockey pool under his or her belt knows that’s not the case.
And while the waiver wire can be your crutch when Achilles get torn and groins get pulled, the keys to an elite upgrade when Devin Setoguchi goes in the tank at the ripe ol’ age of 27 or never did have that rebound season the so-called experts predicted, is the trade.
Winning trades requires a bit of luck, but as the capitalists say, you make your own. So here are a few pointers to help your fantasy squad be a little more Jim Nill and a little less Mike Gillis.
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The trade should be your idea.
Own the transaction. Be aggressive. Take control of your own team by assessing its strengths and weaknesses and proposing deals that address your needs.
The chances of an opponent coming to you with a swap that best suits you are slim to zilch. Those who sit in the weeds and wait to be offered Steven Stamkos for Mike Richards are prime to get plundered.
If you have an eye on, say, Kris Letang because you know he’s coming back from injury soon, initiate that deal before someone else does.
Sure, a shrewd opponent will likely reject your first pitch (which should always be a little weighted in your favour anyway), but he might issue a reasonable counter offer or OK your second overture.
No deal with a player you’re targeting will fall into your lap, so initiate the action—but do it smartly.
Research the NHL.
There’s an app for that—and more than a few websites.
Monitor the scoring leaders and injuries, sure. But if you want to steal a deal, go deeper. Pay attention to ice time, line combinations and how much power-play and penalty-killing time your players are getting, and also your opponents’.
Ask yourself how mid-season NHL trades affect your fantasy league. Is Sidney Crosby centring Pascal Dupuis or Patric Hornqvist? Did Mike Green lose his spot on the top power-play unit? Finding those average players who suddenly share shifts with superstars—or, just as important, abandoning those second-tier guys who no longer have the luxury of riding coattails—can make for a nice little roster upgrade.
Look at the schedule toward the end of the season: Some teams will have four or five games to play while others have just one or two. If your league still allows trades, then deal for those almost-equal players who have twice as many games to play, especially if you’re in a tight race where every second assist counts.
Familiarize yourself with your strengths and weaknesses, and the league weighting system.
Give your new team a month before tinkering. Imagine the deep regret you’d have experienced if you cut bait on Claude Giroux after last October. (The Flyers’ captain didn’t score a goal until 16 games into 2013–14, but finished third overall in points by season’s end.)
Figure out where you rank in terms of the other teams in the pool: Do you have a surplus of goals? Are you weak in penalty minutes? Don’t abandon your strengths, but don’t hoard one or two categories either.
Say you’re in a seven-category head-to-head league and are strong in two categories, mediocre in three and weak in two others. Sell excess strength—say, a third starting goalie—or players scoring points in categories that are a lost cause to upgrade those mediocre statistics to strong.
Barring a string of good fortune, it’s nearly impossible to turn a weakness to a strength, but if you can upgrade your so-so categories, you have a decent shot to win every head-to-head battle 5–2 or 4–3.
Whatever it takes, get the best player in the deal.
Goaltending legend Curtis Joseph plays in multiple rotisserie baseball leagues but avoids hockey pools. (“It’s my own sport,” he says, “so I felt it was a little illegal, y’know?”)
Still, he’s active in his fantasy leagues and explains that the simple principle that wins real athletic trades applies: “It’s about trying to get the best player and the most value in the deal. Even if you’ve got to trade two for one.”
Sweetening the pot with a second solid player—and perhaps even a third scrub who spends most of his time on your bench anyway—can help you land that big fish.
Say your league, like too many, is heavily weighted on goaltenders. Your best one goes down to injury (hi there, anyone who drafted Pekka Rinne last season), and your backup plays for the Calgary Flames. Sure you might think you’re screwed, and you will be if you don’t take action.
Dangle one of your best forwards and a second player out there. With 30 starting goalies in the NHL, chances are someone in your pool has one riding the bench and will consider parting with him. But that goaltender is of more value to you than your forward(s) will be to your trading partner. Especially if you follow the next step.
Broadcast the news if you’re about to trade a superstar.
Who wouldn’t want a right-wing point machine like Martin St. Louis on his team?
Well, perhaps a manager who already has Corey Perry and Patrick Kane filling the twine but needs a defenceman worse than the Oilers do.
So you’ve decided to part with St. Louis. Let the other managers—all of ’em—know he’s on the block. See what offers roll in. Better yet, make suggested offers to all involved. See who bites.
In a perfect world, you get a bidding war between two GMs. That way you’ll never wonder if you could’ve got a better deal elsewhere. And the beauty of snubbing a wily veteran from a fantasy team—unlike, say, an Olympic team—is no hurt feelings.
Never take the first offer…
…even if it’s too good to be true. If you’re offered a player via trade, it’s obvious your opponent has already come to terms with ridding himself of that guy. See if you can milk a second player in the deal or adjust who you are giving up in return to better suit your needs.
One or two counter offers max, though. Or else you risk annoying your trading partner, who could well turn elsewhere for his deal-making.
Use household names and highlights to your advantage.
You might be surprised by how many poolies are easily swayed by a familiar name. Your great aunt knows who Jarome Iginla is and could recognize Jaromir Jagr’s sweater tuck from two rooms away, but she wouldn’t be able to discern Ryan Johansen from Blake Wheeler if her life depended on it. (It won’t.)
Trades are often won by tossing out an aging player with name-brand cachet in exchange for a guy who has recently caught fire but plays for a team no one watches on purpose.
Conversely, if someone is suddenly jonesing for a player on your roster whom you’ve been ignoring, research his game log. He may be coming into his own.
Want to get devious? Send YouTube clips of fantastic goals. If you’re trying to unload Ales Hemsky and he dangles around three defencemen to pot the highlight of the week, broadcast the evidence and sell now, knowing full well beautiful goals and saves count just as much as ugly ones.
“It’s easy to know when someone’s trying to get one over on me,” says Joseph. “I take the time to know the value of the player and I’m confident in that.”
Call. Talk in-person. Don’t just auto-request a trade.
I spoke with an uber hockey nerd (I know—pot, kettle…) who plays in nearly a dozen different fantasy leagues each season. He regularly finishes in the money in most and expects to supplement his income by a couple grand each NHL season through his obsession. He considers himself the Sun Tzu of fantasy trades and is willing to put in the work to make his deals.
Instead of just firing off lopsided trade proposals willy-nilly through the pool’s operating system, he picks up the phone. He emails his friends/enemies directly. He casually brings up possible trades in-person over beers.
In short, he manages with a personal touch, selling the upside of his average players with the faith of a fundamentalist. Sounds like a lot of effort, but it works.
How easy is it to ignore an automated message from your league commissioner? Much easier than telling your friend to his face that Nazem Kadri has hit his peak at 20 goals and is of no use to you.
Sniff out weakness, desperation and loose cannons.
Playing with friends you know well makes this a little easier, but you can detect weakness in your opponents based solely on their transaction history or current ranking in the standings.
Like reading a poker table, you should be able to peg the shifty poolie who’s dying to make a move, any move, just for the sake of feeling like he’s actively trying to improve his fate. He’s prime to get hornswoggled.
Another target is the perennial winner, the player accustomed to finishing high on the leaderboard who gets off to a rocky start. He has a reputation to uphold and should be keen to make a move a few weeks in to get back into the race.
As the season winds down, chances are a few poolies will have played themselves out of contention. They won’t initiate deals, as they’ve essentially thrown in the towel, but they might be willing to accept a deal that lands you one of their better players out of sheer laziness. Of course, the latter strategy might provoke rage amongst your leaguemates—but you’re not in this to make them happy.
If it’s legal, it’s a viable tactic.