There’s no concrete way to find success in the post-season, but for two teams in the conference final, offence from the blue line has been a crucial part of the equation.
Both the Ottawa Senators and Nashville Predators have leaned heavily on their back-end scorers thus far, using their advantage at the position to edge their way through the first two rounds.
But this year’s post-season crop has made it clear that you don’t necessarily need a highly paid superstar on your blue line, and in fact need to find value there. While Erik Karlsson has been otherworldly for the Senators, the rest of the top playoff scorers from the blue line has been a mix:
| Player | Production | Annual Cap Hit |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Erik Karlsson (Ottawa) | 13 points | $6.5 million |
| 2. Ryan Ellis (Nashville) | 9 points | $2.5 million |
| 3. Roman Josi (Nashville) | 8 points | $4 million |
| 4. Justin Schultz (Pittsburgh) | 8 points | $1.4 million |
| 5. Shea Theodore (Anaheim) | 7 points | $863,333 |
| 6. Ryan McDonagh (New York) | 7 points | $4.7 million |
| 7. P.K. Subban (Nashville) | 7 points | $9 million |
| 8. Joel Edmundson (St. Louis) | 6 points | $1.05 million |
| 9. Adam Larsson (Edmonton) | 6 points | $4.17 million |
| 10. Kevin Shattenkirk (Washington) | 6 points | $4.25 million |
According to CapFriendly, 46 NHL defencemen carried a cap hit of $5 million or higher this season. But as seen above, only two of them – Norris Trophy-winners Karlsson and P.K. Subban – have been true game-changers in the post-season.
As you see, it’s very important to have a collection of low-cost producers on the back end, with half of the top eight blue line scorers in these playoffs earning $2.5 million or less in 2016-17.
For the three teams joining Ottawa in the conference final, the production of those depth blue-liners has been key.
In Nashville, while Subban is the lightning rod presence, low-key defenceman Ryan Ellis is the team’s co-leader in scoring and earning less than a third of what Subban annually rakes in.
The same can be said for Anaheim, where five defenders (Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Brandon Montour and Josh Manson) see more minutes per game than 21-year-old Shea Theodore, who has more points than any of them.
For Pittsburgh, Justin Schultz has played a significant role in saving the team’s season, as the defending Stanley Cup champions are without the injured Kris Letang.
The value of having cheap blue-liners contributing consistent offence is that teams can put their money elsewhere, while still icing an impactful back end.
This has been the case with most of the top clubs in these playoffs, whose depth has been the difference.
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Pittsburgh is a prime example. While the team’s big guns earn top dollar (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Letang each take in more than $6.7 million annually), the club can afford all of them and still be a contender by getting a number of key contributors for pennies on the dollar.
Schultz and Brian Dumoulin, who have both been invaluable to the Penguins’ efforts, earn less combined ($2.2 million) than even the low-cost Ellis does for the Predators.
For teams that have been eliminated, this brings both good and bad news.
On one hand, it means there’s good reason for clubs to avoid paying top dollar for a big-name free agent if there is a cheaper talent with a lower profile available. On the other hand, those with big-money blue-liner contracts burning holes in their salary cap may feel worse watching these playoffs shake out, as most of the remaining teams have thrived off much cheaper options.
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