When the Montreal Canadiens signed Alexander Radulov to a one-year deal worth $5.75 million, it was hard to imagine it wouldn’t be a success story. Some drew parallels to Alexander Semin’s short stint with the Canadiens last season, but anyone who has watched the two players wouldn’t make that comparison.
Semin likely didn’t get a fair shake in Montreal, but he also didn’t play with anywhere close to the pace of Radulov, which has made him a fan favourite at the Bell Centre, not to mention among his teammates.
Radulov’s style is relentless. His holding on to the puck below the goal-line or around the net for long enough to get the lanes he wants despite furious checking regularly draws cheers, even if it somehow doesn’t draw penalties.
Looking at what Radulov does in the offensive zone at even strength, you can easily identify what makes him successful.
There isn’t much about Radulov’s shooting that jumps out, he’s a bit better than average in terms of shot quality, but generates just under team average in terms of total shot attempts. Where Radulov changes the game offensively is through playmaking.
Only a handful of players generate more scoring chances for their teammates than Radulov does, as he’s on pace with the likes of Evgeni Malkin and Patrick Kane. Radulov hits players in the slot with passes that most players wouldn’t even think of, partly because he doesn’t hesitate to hold onto the puck and deke around defenders until he sees something he likes.
Add in the fact that he’s one of the better forecheckers on the Canadiens, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s tied for ninth in the NHL in primary assists at even strength, and third in the NHL in primary assists in all situations (fourth per minute played).
The playmaking skill of Radulov, along with the crazy shot Shea Weber possesses, are the main reasons why the Canadiens’ power play has been decent in terms of conversion rate despite producing the fewest scoring chances of any team in the league. That success is still unsustainable, but those two have been the drivers.
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However, before the Canadiens line up the dump trucks of cash they’ll likely give to Radulov this summer to keep him in Montreal, we should go over his weaknesses too.
While Radulov is a strong even-strength possession driver, boasting the third best Corsi among Canadiens forwards at 54.2 per cent, +2.6 per cent relative to his teammates, his even-strength scoring hasn’t actually been that great. His 1.79 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 hockey is equivalent to Brendan Gallagher, tied for fifth on the team. This, despite a 9.07 on-ice shooting percentage, whereas Gallagher was dealing with a career-low 6.29 on-ice shooting percentage, despite a career high in scoring chances.
That isn’t necessarily a huge knock on Radulov. It suggests that he’s a far better point producer on the power play than at even strength, but his ability to generate team goals while he’s on the ice, regardless of points, is still the best on the team; his presence forces opposing teams to give Max Pacioretty more room.
The only other major knock on Radulov is his penchant for taking penalties. Only Sam Bennett of the Calgary Flames has taken more than Radulov’s 19 minors at 5-on-5, and in all situations his 25 minors ranks him fourth among forwards, with a -12 penalty differential that ranks him eighth-worst among forwards this season.
With the Canadiens being particularly bad penalty killers, Radulov’s minors alone are on pace to cause eight goals against over 80 games this season (his penalty drawing would add four goals should the Canadiens maintain their 22.3 per cent power play), something to seriously consider for a player on the wrong side of 30 years old who may slow down a bit soon.
None of this is to say that the Habs shouldn’t sign Radulov, he’s a legitimate first-line forward who has game-breaking playmaking skill, and drives possession from the wing on top of that, an extremely rare combination. However it does mean that he shouldn’t simply be retained at all costs, the term especially will matter in a big way.
While Radulov wows consistently with his play, his limitations shouldn’t be ignored.
