The general impression around the NHL going into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ series against the Washington Capitals was that there was a greater chance of the Capitals winning in five games or less than any other result. Yet here we are after three games with the upstart Leafs leading the Presidents’ Trophy winners 2-1.
The Caps have held the slight edge in play at even strength with a 50.77% Corsi, but adjusted for score, the Maple Leafs are actually ahead at 50.39%. Playing the Capitals even after three games is more than anyone would have given the Leafs a chance of doing, but here they are.
Even still, breaking even in shot attempts against the Capitals shouldn’t be enough for the Maple Leafs to be winning. It’s not a controversial thing to say that the Capitals are a little more talented and have a better goaltender, so there’s got to be more than just breaking even and getting a little lucky, right?
The Leafs haven’t been winning the scoring chance battle overall, but they’ve been shredding the Capitals through three games when it comes to high-danger scoring chances and getting stronger each time out.
It makes sense if you’re the Leafs and you know you’re not likely to outplay the Capitals for the entire series to focus on short-term swings in high-danger chances; extreme boxing out in front of your own net combined with the same offensive prowess the Leafs showed all season long.
In fact, when you look at individual performers in this series, the Maple Leafs have the four players with the most high-danger chances, with Auston Matthews, James van Riemsdyk, William Nylander, and Brian Boyle leading the way, followed by Washington’s Andre Burakovsky and Kevin Shattenkirk.
Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin has three high-danger chances in three games, including power-play time. Ovechkin’s regular sweet spot isn’t technically in the high-danger zone, and he does have two goals in three games, but he does love to pounce on loose pucks in the low slot, and the Leafs have done a fantastic job of keeping him from doing so.
The Leafs have done a similar job on T.J. Oshie, who scores most of his goals from the inner slot, but only has one high-danger scoring chance through three games played.
That kind of keying on star players while unleashing their own scorers has been enough for a team not many gave a real shot to earn themselves two wins in three close games, and you have to wonder how much longer it will take before the Capitals start to panic.
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