Nerdy Guy:
Vancouver Canucks fans have their heroes and their goats.
It isn’t a rational process; it’s one that often causes a player who is merely a credible NHLer to be cast as a star, or sees fans stretch to make a useful player out, unfairly, to be the personification of their sports-related frustration. These are the hazards and benefits of playing in a passionate hockey market.
Last season, Canucks fans found a new target. Enter Luca Sbisa.
Sbisa has built his NHL reputation by playing a hearty physical game. He’s a very good hitter, and a solid skater, although he’s often struggled to move the puck.
While Sbisa’s physical, cycle-stopping style has been deemed valuable by a variety of NHL teams, his offensive contributions are infrequent and his underlying results have been, to put it mildly, unremarkable.
With Vancouver and the Anaheim Ducks, Sbisa has played at least 250 5-on-5 minutes with 20 different skaters over the past four seasons, according to data from hockeyanalysis.com. 15 of those 20 skaters enjoyed more of the run of play, defined by simple shot attempt differential, playing without Sbisa. 19 of those 20 skaters were outscored by a wider margin in the minutes they skated with Sbisa.
The track record is what it is, but Sbisa wouldn’t be the first defenceman to find a higher level of effectiveness in their mid-20s. Its been difficult to avoid noticing that, on the heels of Sbisa playing some pretty decent hockey in October, the Canucks have fared poorly during his injury-related November absence.
So does the club miss Sbisa’s presence on the blue line?
While the club has struggled to win games on their recent road trip, their issues have mostly been consigned to special teams play. Vancouver has actually outscored, out-shot, and out-attempted their opponents handily in 5-on-5 situations since arriving in Buffalo five games ago.
Because so many preferred publicly available metrics are based largely on team-relative even-strength performance, some of Sbisa’s unflattering results should be taken with a grain of salt.
Sbisa was in the middle of the pack among Canucks defenders by most of the shot-based metrics when he was in the lineup earlier in the year. Small-sample shot-attempt differential is also too blunt of a tool and we should be reticent to draw too much from what it indicates about a player whose ostensible value is derived from being responsible on in-zone play.
With those qualifiers in mind, it’s not a good sign that the Canucks have surrendered even-strength goals at a higher rate with Sbisa on the ice than they have with any other regular defenceman this season.
It’s also concerning that where Sbisa and his most regular defensive partner, rookie Ben Hutton, have been outscored two-to-one and drilled on the shot clock in their 85 minutes together, Hutton has been entirely excellent in his minutes with other Canucks defencemen.
The numbers suggest that the six blue liners whom the Canucks have used most regularly on this trip are their six best at 5-on-5, but it’s fair to say that Sbisa has been missed on the penalty kill.
Since Sbisa joined the club last season, the Canucks have given up penalty-killing goals against at a lower rate with Sbisa on the ice than they have with any other commonly deployed penalty-killing defender. And, though it’s entirely unfair to pin an entire unit’s struggles on one player, the Canucks have been hit particularly hard shorthanded when Sbisa’s replacement, Yannick Weber, has been on the ice.
Naked Eye
When athletes say that they don’t read what is written about them I usually just roll my eyes. Let’s be honest, most know exactly what is written and by whom. Luca Sbisa however, may be the exception to the rule.
I mean, there is no way he Twitter searches his name, right? If he did, wouldn’t he have been reduced to a pile of blubbering matter by now?
Lets have a quick look what the Twitter is saying at this moment (some of the top results that didn’t pertain to news of Sbisa returning to practice with the Canucks).
For more than a year Sbisa has been far and away the biggest whipping boy for Canucks fans. But something has shifted the past couple of weeks as the Canucks have struggled to win with Sbisa on the IR. Snark has been replaced by just a slight underlining tone of sarcasm in regards to the Sbisa narrative as some are starting to wonder if the Canucks are actually better with him in the lineup.
Listen, I understand why Sbisa has had a target on his back since he started his tenure in Vancouver. The puck isn’t always his friend and the fancy numbers suggest that he is a below average defender (I believe only Edmonton’s Oscar Klefbom was worse in GA/60 last season among defenders that played 1000-plus minutes at even strength). Throw in the fact that Jim Benning gave him a three-year contact at 3.6 million per last spring and it’s easy to see why people pile on (Klefbom got 7 x 4.167 from the Oilers prior to this season, by the way).
It’s difficult to separate a player from his salary. I get that. But it comes down to this. Is Luca Sbisa one of the Canucks six best defencemen? When healthy, should he be in the lineup at the expense of someone else? Before this road trip, I bet the heavy favourite to that answer was no. Now, some people may be changing their tune.
My friend the Drance man already laid out above that Vancouver is a better penalty killing team with Sbisa on the ice. And considering how poor the PK has been in his absence (Canucks have given up at least one PPG in 6 of the 7 games Sbisa has missed) that might be reason alone to argue that he should never be a healthy scratch.
So who should then? Not Edler or Tanev. Hamhuis isn’t going to sit and neither is Hutton at this point. So your options are Bartkowski or Weber. I wouldn’t mind either taking a seat every now and then. To me Bartkowski is a better defensive option than Weber. Weber however is much better offensively and can be a very good option on the power play.
Now I know many of you are screaming at your screens “BUT THEY ARE BOTH BETTER THAN SBISA!!!”
Hear me out. And this is where the numbers guys and the old school guys clash a bit. Sbisa is a mean, physical defenceman.
Sbisa hits people.
Sbisa at least attempts to clear the front of the net. Sbisa will stick his nose in scrums instead of fly by them. I know nothing of this has much to do with SATs and the like.
But it is worth something.
The Canucks defence corps is pillow-y soft. It needs an element of snarl. Sbisa is that element. He is the only threat to stand up and really lay someone out (Edler picks up that part of his game in the playoffs).
Do you think forwards are scared to retrieve the puck in the corner when Tanev or Hutton are bearing down on them? No chance. Both are very solid defencemen, but crushing dudes isn’t a big part of their games.
So I guess it comes down to how much weight you put into that part of the game. And for me, there is enough weight that I feel Sbisa should be in Vancouver’s top six when he is healthy.
Now, back to the snark.
