The most important concept that pertains to buying low and selling high in fantasy hockey is that of PDO. Quite simply, PDO adds together a team’s shooting and save percentages with a given player on the ice at 5-on-5.
On average, a player’s PDO should be around 1000 (or a .900 save percentage and 10 per cent shooting, for example). Anything too far above that, and a player’s numbers will slow down or decline. Too far below, and a player’s numbers should rebound.
Via Hockey Analysis, there were 118 forwards with at least 1000 5 on 5 minutes last season; none finished with a PDO above 1050, and only five were above 1040. Conversely, no forward finished below 965, and only eight were below 980.
Here are a few players to sell or buy right now.
Sell High
Max Pacioretty (Montreal – Left Wing) – 1049 PDO
Pacioretty has played at least 70 games in two previous seasons. In each of those seasons, his on-ice save percentage was .902 and .921. In those two seasons, he played a combined 152 games, and finished with a combined plus-10 rating. So far this year, in 26 games and thanks to a .940 on-ice save percentage, Pacioretty is already plus-11.
It would be easier to believe that Pacioretty’s plus-minus would sustain itself if he was on a better team. Unfortunately, Montreal’s team possession percentage is middle of the pack and not far off San Jose and Florida’s totals. Seeing as Pacioretty is a top-20 fantasy skater right, he could probably get a very good return that can fill a gaping hole on a fantasy roster.
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The next block of players was released today for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play right here on Sportsnet.ca. These are games where players who face off on Saturday are pitted in a head to head matchup with specific scoring categories. On Saturday, Pacioretty faces off with Jamie Benn in the “All-Around” category. It’s a close call, but I would give the edge to Pacioretty in that one.
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary – Left Wing) – 1070 PDO
Gaudreau was a pretty high draft pick in fantasy leagues this year, at least for a player that hadn’t played a single game in the NHL.
While he’s looked very good for the Flames so far this year, like Pacioretty, Gaudreau’s plus/minus rating of plus-11 is either going to slow down, or decline altogether. As far as puck possession goes, the Flames are considerably worse than the Habs, sitting in 27th in Fenwick for percentage. They pretty much look like last year’s Colorado Avalanche.
The biggest problem with Gaudreau’s start isn’t the team’s possession rating, though. It’s his team’s shooting percentage at even strength with Gaudreau on the ice. In that regard, Gaudreau leads the league in on-ice shooting percentage at 14.18 percent. For reference, Ryan Getzlaf led the league last year at 12.84 percent, and no forward finished above 11.75 per cent (minimum of 1000 minutes played).
I have serious doubts that Gaudreau will be a 60 point player this year, though he can be masqueraded in fantasy hockey trades as someone who will.
Buy Low
Jonathan Toews (Chicago – Center) – 985 PDO
It has been a slow start to the season for many Blackhawks players. Patrick Kane was in this column as a buy low target on November 12th, and in the eight games he’s played since he has six goals and seven assists.
Toews makes another good buy low target right now. Of course, “buy low” is a term of degrees – for some players, it might be 75 cents on the dollar of full value. For someone like Toews, though, it’s probably 90 or 95 cents on the dollar. All the same, fantasy leagues are about profiting on players, and that opportunity is possible with Toews.
Chicago’s power play has saved Toews’s point totals so far; he has seven power play points this year, and had 15 all of last season. His on-ice shooting percentage right now is 6.3 per cent, and he has not finished below 9 per cent in his career. His even strength assists and plus-minus should turn around. That means there’s upside in Toews for the rest of the season.
Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg – Defence) – 978 PDO
Winnipeg, as a team, has had trouble scoring goals this year and that has been a big reason why Trouba has just seven points in 25 games. With Tobias Enstrom on the injured reserve, Trouba has played at least 24 minutes in three straight games (he only had eight such games in his first 22 played this year).
Trouba’s problem is the team is shooting just over 4 percent with him on the ice at even strength. For reference on how low that is, only Alex Edler finished under 5.25 per cent last year among defencemen with 1000 minutes played, and only 9 of 121 defencemen finished under 6 percent. With more ice time should come more shots on goal, and with a regression should come more points.
Check waiver wires because Trouba may flat out be available in some leagues. In others, he probably can be had for very cheap, and could be a top-50 defenceman for the rest of the season.
Trouba is just 2 of a possible 4 points next week on Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool. Winnipeg has a good schedule of Dallas, Colorado, and Anaheim for the next block of games. With Enstrom injured, it could be a good week for Trouba to break out.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Behind The Net, ESPN, and NHL.com
