It’s important to point out that buying low and selling high is part of most fantasy hockey leagues, but the degree to which it occurs varies among these leagues.
There are some leagues where fantasy owners won’t give today’s full value for a player, and there are some leagues where fantasy owners will give more than full value. Each league is different, and only the owners in the league will know how their league mates behave.
Here are some players to buy low and sell high on.
Buy Low
David Perron – 2 goals, 11 assists, minus-9 rating; 965 PDO
Perron scored 28 goals and tallied 57 points last year, both of which were career highs. Maybe he was due for a bit of regression, but he’s on pace to finish this season with fewer than 10 goals. His assist total, though, is fine. In fact, his per-game rate this year (0.38) is better than his career per-game rate (0.34).
That goal scoring regression is tough to stomach, but due for correction.
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On the season, Perron is shooting 4 per cent by himself. For his career, Perron was a 13.3 per cent shooter coming into this season. That would seem to indicate there’s a goal scoring turnaround coming.
Finally, there was news late last night from Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch that a trade negotiation between Columbus and Edmonton, likely including Perron, was well underway. If Perron can get out of the West and join a better team then boost in to fantasy value could be in order. He may even be on the waiver wire in some leagues at this point.
Looking ahead to next week in Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool, a salary cap-style weekly fantasy game here on Sportsnet.ca, Perron costs just 2 out of a possible 4 points. Edmonton also has Arizona, Winnipeg, and San Jose on the schedule. The Sharks are not the team of last year, and Arizona isn’t very strong either. It might be a sneaky week to get Perron into lineups and hope for a breakout.
Ryan O’Reilly – 2 goals, 9 assists, minus-12 rating; 950 PDO
At this point of the season, it’s hard to buy-in on Colorado players. The team has taken their expected step back, and then some. There is one stat that is important with regards to Ryan O’Reilly, though:
Via War On Ice, with Ryan O’Reilly on the ice, Colorado has a CorsiFor percentage of 49.59. That means Colorado controls 49.59 per cent of shot attempts at 5 on 5 with O’Reilly on the ice. Without him, that number is 42.06 per cent. In other words, Colorado is deplorable without him on the ice, but about average with him.
That would indicate that O’Reilly’s minus-12 rating should bounce back, if at the very least slow down. Colorado is saving 88.7 per cent of shots with him on the ice; last year, that was 91.4 per cent. There should be a plus-minus rebound, and on top of that, O’Reilly is a career 10.3 per cent shooter who is shooting just 4.1 per cent so far this year.
Sell High
Jori Lehtera – 7 goals, 13 assists, plus-12 rating; 1069 PDO
Part of the reason to sell Lehtera high right now is the price that fantasy owners would have paid to get him. In all likelihood, he wasn’t drafted in most fantasy leagues. Even if he was, he was likely taken sometime after the 15th round in a 12-team league. In that sense, fantasy owners shouldn’t have to rely on him as a centre, so trade targets are flexible.
Via Hockey Analysis, Lehtera is fifth out of 258 forwards with at least 200 minutes of 5 on 5 time in PDO. For fantasy owners unfamiliar with the term, PDO just adds together the shooting percentage and save percentage of a player’s team when that player is on the ice. A sum of 1000 is considered about normal, and no regular forward finished above 1050 last season. As of today, Lehtera is at 1069.
The biggest component for Lehtera is his 12 per cent on-ice shooting percentage. His pace right now would make him a point-per-game player, and would see him finish close to plus-50. He will not achieve either of those marks this year.
Nick Foligno – 10 goals, 11 assists, plus-3 ratings; 1044 PDO
This will be Nick Foligno’s sixth 82-game season in the NHL. Foligno has never cracked 50 points before in his career, and he’s over a point per game this year. Something has to give.
At 5 on 5 from 2012 through the end of last season, Foligno put up 1.76 points per 60 minutes. So far this year, that number is 2.50. It’s necessary to point that out because Foligno’s season is not a matter of him simply getting more ice time. It’s because Columbus is shooting 12.7 per cent at 5 on 5 with Foligno on the ice. That’s a number he won’t come close to finishing the season with.
Another factor in Foligno’s impending regression is his shooting percentage. Coming into this year, Foligno was a career 11.3 per cent individual shooter. So far this season, Foligno is shooting 21.7 per cent. It’s just simply too high for him to maintain for the rest of the season.
Foligno might be able to fetch a pretty price on the trade market. With selling points of being Ryan Johansen’s linemate, and being an across the board contributor including penalty minutes, Foligno is a perfect sell high candidate.
Pick ‘N Play
Another sell high candidate I’ve talked about before is Mark Giordano. His name was released today as part of Sportsnet’s Pick ‘N Play league for the week. It’s a league were players who face off on Saturday night hockey are pitted against each other in an either/or type of game. He’s up against Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson this week, and Giordano would be the best play here.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, War On Ice, and Hockey Reference
