Here are some targets that should be available in most dynasty leagues, depending on the depth, sorted by ownership rates. These players are stat-helpers or long shots, not cornerstones.
Clarke MacArthur (Ottawa Senators – LW)
MacArthur is on injured reserve with a concussion, so he may be on the waiver wire in a lot of keeper/dynasty leagues.
The difference in possession differential with MacArthur and Kyle Turris is less than 2 percent from last year, so it’s not a huge drop. They are also taking about five fewer shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five compared to last year. Overall, Ottawa’s attempts rate, with MacArthur on the ice, has gotten worse this year.
MacArthur’s shots per game are at a career-high 2.32 per game, and his shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five are at a three-year high. There isn’t a decline in skills for MacArthur. Ottawa’s shooting percentage with him on the ice, though, is 8.19 percent, his lowest mark since 2009-10. However, this is likely a blip. He may not crack 30 assists again like last year, but 25 is a reasonable mark.
With his injured status, he’s probably on the waiver wire. If not, MacArthur is likely a cheap trade target. He’ll be 30-years-old next year, which is still young enough to look for a rebound. With a healthy 2015-16 season, he’s almost assuredly going to push for 20 goals and 45 points again.
Don’t forget to set your lineups for Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool! Nashville is one of just six teams with four games this week, and Seth Jones is minimum-priced with power play time.
Ales Hemsky (Dallas Stars – RW)
Last off-season in the fantasy world was a bit wild with the prospects of Dallas’ top-six forwards. It was expected to be Valeri Nichushkin with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, but injuries sidelined Nichushkin. Even worse, Ales Hemsky and Jason Spezza did not find their chemistry that they had at the end of the 2013-2014 season in Ottawa.
Hemsky’s shots per game are down, and for a guy who didn’t shoot a lot to begin with, there’s not a lot of margin for error. However, his shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five are as high as they’ve been since the 2009-10 season. His shots are a reflection of a decrease in ice time, not degradation of skills (at least on the surface).
The next fact is that Hemsky’s points per game total is at their lowest mark of his career. Again, though, are not. In fact, his points per 60 minutes at five-on-five (1.92) are the highest for Hemsky since 2010-2011. That rate this year compares to Ryan Callahan (1.92), Paul Stastny (1.89), Taylor Hall (1.87), and Jason Pominville (1.86).
Finally, the Stars are taking about 10 shot attempts fewer per 60 minutes with Hemsky and Spezza on the ice than the Senators were with that duo last year. Overall puck possession differential has only gone down 2.9 percent. It’s a big dip, but not catastrophic.
The Stars are paying Hemsky for two more years at $4 million for each season. I can’t imagine them just giving him 13 minutes of ice time per game consistently. With a bit of luck, Hemsky can get back to the 40 point plateau next year, and is widely available in public fantasy leagues.
The first matchups for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play were released today. The first matchups focus on the Pittsburgh-Los Angeles game Saturday. I would pick Drew Doughty over Kris Letang on defence.
Nathan Gerbe (Carolina Hurricanes – C)
If I were to list off, “15 goals, 15 assists, 30 penalty minutes, 200 shots on goal,” none of those particularly stand out. In the 2013-14 season, Gerbe surpassed all of those marks. If he were able to play 75-80 games in 2010-11, he would have done it back then as well. Those numbers aren’t overly impressive, but consider this: There were just 39 forwards in the NHL to reach each of those stats last year.
One issue is Gerbe has never had more than seven power play points in a season, so if he ever gets to 10, that’s a bonus. Also, Carolina hasn’t really been conducive to a good plus/minus rating over the last few years. A player like Gerbe – who doesn’t blow any particular stat out of the water – even a minus-five rating or so takes a good chunk out of his overall value.
The fact remains that Gerbe has shown the ability to contribute in most roto categories, and across-the-board in that matter. He can be a top-150 forward if he can improve the plus/minus, which would put up as a 13th forward in a 12-team league, and is still on the right side of 30-years-old. His ownership in ESPN leagues at time of writing is under 1 percent.
Some stats courtesy of Hockey Reference, Behind The Net, and Hockey Analysis.