Don’t forget to submit your picks for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play. It is a matchup-based game featuring players facing off on Saturday. The newest trio of matchups was released Friday for the Calgary-Vancouver game. With the Flames playing their second game in as many nights, and Henrik Sedin matched against defenceman Mark Giordano, I would lean to Sedin.
When playing in a large tournament, or Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournaments (GPPs), on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, it’s important to have a plan. Like most things sports related, there is a fair amount of luck involved, but it does seem those who prepare and have a plan get luckier than others over the long haul.
Back in November, a GPP on DraftKings was won by a user who stacked mostly Buffalo players on the night they beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-2. In the last big GPP on FanDuel last season, the winner was Florida Panthers’ heavy (incidentally, also against the Leafs). This is to say being a contrarian, or using some players that won’t be highly owned and have a high variance, is the key to winning large tournaments. Most of the time, these plays won’t work out, but all it takes is for everything to come together once for a big win.
Here are some contrarian stacks to use Saturday in daily fantasy hockey, in order of preference.
Columbus’ Second Line
The New York Islanders are coming to the end of a seven-game road trip, playing game six tonight in Columbus. They also played last night in New Jersey, so that’s the rub here; either the Islanders play Jaroslav Halak for the second time in as many nights (which is almost always a bad idea), or Chad Johnson – the goalie with the worst five-on-five save percentage this year. Either way, it’s a good start for the Blue Jackets.
Some daily fantasy players may be aware of this information and target Columbus. I would expect, however, for the Ryan Johansen-Nick Foligno-Scott Hartnell line to be popular. I’m avoiding that line because of Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk. The two Islanders defencemen are the only two on the team this year with a positive possession rating relative to the rest of their team. With Leddy on the ice, the team has a 57.8 per cent possession team, without him they are a 51.4 per cent team (all via War On Ice). I am assuming they will get matched against the Johansen line.
Instead of targeting the first line, I would look to the line of Jeremy Morin-Brandon Dubinsky-Cam Atkinson. Morin was moved to that line during the game Friday in place of Matt Calvert. Because of plus/minus concerns, I would just use that trio on DraftKings. They are relatively cheap as well, eating up just 25.8 per cent of the available salary cap.
New York Rangers Second Line
The Rangers have been on quite the tear of late, having gone 12-1-0 in their last 13 games. Their opponent Saturday has been sliding of late, going 3-4-1 in their last eight games. What is important is that the Sharks have been without Joe Thornton over their last four games, and have given up 19 goals and 27.8 shots per game (they have given up 24.9 shots per game over the course of the season).
Thornton’s status is still up in the air for Saturday, but if he’s out, targeting the Rangers would be a good idea. The line of Derek Stepan-Martin St. Louis-Chris Kreider is somewhat inexpensive, costing just under a third of total available salary. Dan Boyle has also been getting the lion’s share of power-play time as well.
One problem with the Rangers is that the scoring tends to be spread out, and that makes picking which line will do well a bit more difficult. This line doesn’t get buried in zone starts, though, and should avoid Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Again, it will depend on whether Thornton is in the lineup or not. If he is, I might shy away from the Rangers in daily fantasy altogether.
Carolina Hurricanes Third Line
This may come as a surprise to some, but since Nov. 1, the Carolina Hurricanes are 12th in the NHL in puck possession as measured by unblocked shot attempts while the St. Louis Blues are 17th. Of course, the Blues have had very good goaltending from Brian Elliott to cover up some of their issues. The fact remains that St. Louis has been fortunate of late.
The Blues have the best home goal for/against per game differential in the NHL, but haven’t been invincible; in the last six weeks, they’ve been beaten by Dallas 4-3, and were taken to overtime by the Edmonton Oilers.
The third line for Carolina – Jeff Skinner, Riley Nash, Alex Semin – are very cheap to stack on both FanDuel (24 per cent of salary cap) and DraftKings (23.2 per cent). They are also are all sporting at least a 51.8 per cent possession rating since November 1st. It allows roster flexibility elsewhere, and hopefully they get matched against defence pairing of Chris Butler and Barret Jackman.
Next week, Carolina has games against Colorado and Vancouver at home, and then on the road into Ottawa. With the team healthy and playing better, I would look to Elias Lindholm for Sportnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool. It’s a salary cap-style game, with players costing 1-4 points. Lindholm is currently playing with the Staal brothers, and costs just one point. That’s a good punt play.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, War On Ice, and Hockey Stats.