Now that the season has progressed into November, teams – both NHL and fantasy – are starting to take on more day-to-day normalcy. As a result, we’re also entering territory where a player’s continued poor performance can no longer be as easily dismissed as just a slow start, while on the flip side some players who hit the ground running and have kept producing are looking less and less like flukes and might need to be taken more seriously for the longer haul.
But there are exceptions, including some of this week’s specific buy low and sell high players.
How can you tell what the future really holds for skaters? By looking at the story behind the story. Use Frozen Pool to examine trends in ice time, shots on goal, scoring patterns, and most frequent linemates, since at this stage of the season – and especially for less proven players – those are often more telling about what’s in store for them than their current point total.
Four Buy Low Players
Jarome Iginla – Thanks to the struggles of the Avalanche and the "grizzled veteran" hype being placed squarely upon the soon to be once again mullet covered shoulders of Jaromir Jagr during October, Iginla has been somewhat overlooked by poolies.
That’s a mistake when talking about a player who has scored 28+ goals in every full season since back when Connor McDavid was literally still wearing diapers. Kick the tires on trying to acquire Iginla in your league; if you can get him for less than his true 25-30 goal, 55-60 point value then pull the trigger.
Jake Muzzin – Somehow, as of the weekend Muzzin was receiving less PP time per game than Christian Ehrhoff and Alec Martinez. That won’t last and, as we’ve seen in the past week, neither did Muzzin’s early scoring woes.
Last season Muzzin had zero points in five October games, before exploding for 11 in 13 November contests, and it looks like he’s poised for more of the same after no points in his first seven games followed by four points in his next three contests. Act now while Muzzin’s overall value is still somewhat masked by his terrible start.
Kris Russell – Speaking of terrible starts, chances are the GM in your league who owns Russell is beyond annoyed with him at this point and might be convinced to deal him for artificially low value.
The good news is Russell is nowhere near this bad, so if you get him now you’ll be the one to benefit as he salvages his season.
Another key is that Russell is a UFA this summer, and with Calgary’s crowded blueline he could be a candidate to be dealt even if the Flames improve. On a top team, Russell could put up excellent multi-category numbers like a Brent Seabrook or Anton Stralman.
Derek Stepan – Want the recipe for a perfect buy low? Take a player who was already a well disguised point producer over the past three seasons (never posting more than 57 points in a campaign but having actually scored at 65 point pace), and then add an a sluggish October (only five points in 11 games). If you can get Stepan in trade for a 50-55 point value, you’ll win that deal before season’s end.
Four Sell High Players
Brendan Gallagher –Barring injury, Gallagher should set a career high in points this season. But considering his previous high is just 47 points, that’s not quite as impressive as it sounds.
Because of not only his own hot start, but also that of the Canadiens in general, Gallagher is significantly overvalued right now. I’m guessing you could easily trade him for a more proven 60-point scorer, in which case you have to bite the bullet and unload Gallagher in one-year leagues.
Joel Ward – Did early November somehow turn into late April? It sure seems that way, what with the success that renowned playoff scorer Ward is experiencing.
While it might be tempting to think Ward’s production is sustainable since it’s coming on a new team, the reality is Ward is 34 years old and simply on a nice short-term scoring streak – just like the nine points in nine games he had at the same time in 2013-14 with the Caps, when he went only to post only 49 points.
If you picked him up and benefitted from his nice early run, then congratulations on a wise move – but the time has come to cash in because this won’t last.
Dylan Larkin – It was an amazing first NHL month for Larkin; but after a three-game stretch that saw him average 19:33 of ice time per game, he’s dropped to only an average of 16:12 in his five most recent contests through the weekend. And things should go from bad to worse after the return of previous buy low Pavel Datsyuk.
The reality is only two 19-year-old rookie forwards (Anze Kopitar and Patrick Kane) posted more than 55 points since 1993-94, and Larkin won’t be the third. The good news is he plays for a high profile team and received abundant fantasy and media attention during his early run, which means trading him in a one-year league for 55 point value shouldn’t be difficult.
Ryan Suter – Quick quiz – without looking, guess Suter’s career high for points in a single season? Would you believe only 46? Beyond that, in nine full seasons he’s only broken 40 points three times! And in 2014-15 he finished in the bottom half in points per-60 minutes among rearguards who played 1250+ minutes at five-on-five, behind the likes of fantasy no names Paul Martin, Karl Alzner, and Andy Greene.
Suter is significantly defying the odds with his early scoring success, so be sure to use that to sell high before he comes back to earth in the coming weeks.
