Tonight is almost certain to be a weird night as far as daily fantasy hockey is concerned. There are 24 teams in action with 16 of those teams playing their second game in as many nights. That can be disaster in daily leagues because teams on a back-to-back rarely have a morning skate. With no morning skate for two-thirds of the teams playing, there is a lot of uncertainty around starting goalies, line combinations, and injuries. One recommendation I’m making today is that if daily fantasy players are unable to be around a computer or mobile device for pre-game warmups, it might be a good evening to take a break.
For the rest who will be playing, these games also bring a lot of opportunities. With many backup goalies expected to play, and maybe even a few who are playing both back-to-back games, it could mean a lot of goals tonight. Here are a few players I’m looking at specifically because of their situation, but are usually avoidable.
Matt Duchene (Colorado-C, $5,800)
Colorado has had a pretty poor start to the season, and Duchene hasn’t had the start he’s wanted either. So far this year, Duchene has 14 points in 23 games. On this date last year, Duchene had 20 points in 20 games.
Dallas is coming off an overtime loss to Minnesota, a game where Dallas had a season-high 45 shots on net. That’s a deflating loss against one of the toughest teams in the Western Conference.
So far this season, the Dallas Stars are among the worst teams in the NHL at giving up unblocked shot attempts at five on five. In fact, they give up more per 60 minutes than teams like Philadelphia and Edmonton (via War On Ice). Combined with the fact that the Stars will almost certainly start Anders Lindback – who was 38th out of 51 goalies in save percentage with 3,000 minutes at five on five from 2010 through last year – it should be a good offensive night for the Avalanche, and hopefully Duchene.
Brett Connolly (Tampa Bay-W, $2,500)
Sometimes it can take days, or weeks, for daily fantasy sites to catch up to the actual salary level of a player. Connolly returned to action last week from injury, and has found his way to the top power-play unit in Tampa Bay.
That’s right, Brett Connolly is playing on the same power-play unit as Steven Stamkos and Jason Garrison. Their opponent tonight – the Ottawa Senators – are about mid-pack on the penalty kill (12th by percentage), and bottom-third by shots allowed (23rd, and more than Buffalo).
That’s a penalty kill to pick on for a team playing back-to-back nights.
Lightning skaters will probably be widely-owned tonight, but Connolly is a way to get exposure to that top power-play unit at a minimum price. As far as “punt” plays go, Connolly is one of the best tonight.
Speaking of Tampa Bay, the last pairings for Sportsnet’s Pick ‘n Play were released yesterday. One of the featured games is Tampa Bay and Ottawa, and one of the matchups is Bobby Ryan against Steven Stamkos. With the matchup Tampa Bay has at all strengths, this should be a slam dunk for Stamkos.
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Markus Granlund (Calgary-C, $3,900)
The brother of Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund has gone a bit under the radar so far this year. Nonetheless, Markus has nine points in his first 13 games this season, and has found his way to the second line for the Flames, between Johnny Gaudreau and Jiri Hudler.
Calgary is one of the few teams not on a back to back, but they’re not also playing a team who played last night either. This is just a game between two Western teams that should be rested. With that said, Arizona is under 80 per cent penalty killing so far this season, and give up the fifth-most unblocked shot attempts while short-handed. Granlund, for the record, plays on the second power-play unit.
This game figures to be high scoring, and the Granlund line should be in on at least one Calgary goal. Considering his price, matchup, and situation, Granlund appears to be a good value tonight.
Looking ahead to next week on Sportsnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool, it could be a good week for Calgary skaters. The Flames have three home games, and face Arizona, Colorado, and San Jose. As of Saturday, all three of those teams are not in the playoff picture.
With Johnny Gaudreau costing just one of four points in the Sportsnet Fantasy Hockey Pool, and getting second line time both at even strength and on the power play, it could be a good week for “Johnny Hockey” at a very reasonable cost.
Seth Jones (Nashville-D, $3,200)
Nashville defencemen are fairly pricy right now: Shea Weber is $6,500, Roman Josi is $5,100, and Ryan Ellis is $4,200. With that said, Seth Jones is in line to be the lone defenceman on the second power-play unit for the Predators. That’s a power-play unit now featuring James Neal and Filip Forsberg.
Nashville has a fantastic matchup as far as special teams goes. The Predators face the Blue Jackets, who are 28th in penalty-kill percentage, and 28th in unblocked shot attempts allowed per minute while short-handed. The Nashville man advantage should be able to get at least one goal tonight.
Jones might make a better tournament play than cash game play. The upside here with the power-play time and the opponent is very enticing.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, and War On Ice.
