The search for value in daily fantasy hockey is ever-evolving, but is a daily process. Finding which players can be expected to exceed value on a given day is the crux of success in the entire industry. There are a couple ways this can be done:
· Sometimes websites just miss players. Nikita Kucherov was barely above minimum price on FanDuel for the majority of the first two months of the season, while Jori Lehtera was barely above minimum for the month of October on DraftKings. Players just fall through the cracks from time to time.
· Sometimes there are third wheels alongside a productive duo that are much cheaper than the other two. In daily terms, it’s called getting “exposure” to that line, and it helps prevent opponents that are using part of the productive duo getting too much of an advantage if they break out.
That second part is of particular interested Saturday. Here are some relatively cheap plays that are third wheels on productive lines.
Jonathan Drouin (Tampa Bay – Winger) – $3,800
It’s still fairly early in the year, and Drouin is a rookie, so the sample sizes will all be small. With that said, Drouin and Steven Stamkos have played just a shade under 83 minutes of five-on-five time together this year. In those 83 minutes, Drouin has five assists. That’s a rate of 3.61 points/60 minutes at five-on-five. For reference, the NHL leader this year (minimum of 300 minutes played) is Rick Nash at 4.00.
As it is, Drouin is tied for 30th among NHL forwards in points/60 minutes with Martin St. Louis and Pavel Datsyuk. His last couple of games have been spent playing alongside Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan. He has an assist in both games, and has averaged over 19 minutes of ice time.
The final piece to the puzzle is that Drouin has joined the top power-play unit with Stamkos, Callahan, Valtteri Filppula, and Victor Hedman. The Lightning power play is over 20 per cent for the season, while the New York Islanders penalty kill – Tampa’s opponent tonight – is last by percentage and fourth-worst in allowing shot attempts (via War On Ice). At $3,800, Drouin is a must-play tonight in cash games.
Brandon Saad (Chicago – Winger) – $4,400
In what is seemingly becoming a weekly ritual, the Columbus Blue Jackets announced an injury today, and that Boone Jenner will miss 1-2 months with a stress fracture in his back. With Scott Hartnell breaking a finger recently, that makes four of Columbus’s top nine forwards out of the lineup. In other words, the Blue Jackets’ depth up front is no longer there.
Saad has been playing alongside Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa for some time now. In a small sample last year, Chicago controlled 64.6 per cent of shot attempts with Toews and Saad on the ice. That number has dropped considerably to 54.4 per cent this year, but it’s worth noting that’s still a good mark for a line that eats a lot of tough minutes.
The matchup with Columbus is pretty good because the Blue Jackets’ top possession forward is Scott Hartnell. Without him on the ice, the team controls just 43.9 per cent of shot attempts at five on five. That should give a good indication of how depleted this team really is. With Saad getting second unit power-play minutes, and Columbus being 24th in penalty kill efficiency, he’s nearly as good of a play as Drouin.
With the Christmas break coming, Chicago only has two games next week. Those two games are against a defensively depleted Winnipeg Jets team and a bad Colorado team. On Sportnet’s Fantasy Hockey Pool, Saad costs just two of a possible four points. Those are good matchups, and Saad is a relatively cheap price.
Michael Raffl (Philadelphia – Winger) – $3,000
Last year, Michael Raffl played over 250 minutes with Claude Giroux. In that time, the duo was on the ice for 1.276 goals for per 20 minutes, or 16 goals. When Raffl wasn’t with Giroux, he was on the ice for 0.533 goals for per 20 minutes, or 13 goals. Raffl was on the ice for three fewer goals for in nearly 240 minutes more ice time playing away from Giroux. In a small sample this year, the split is even more extreme.
It’s intuitive that Raffl’s numbers would look a lot better playing alongside Claude Giroux, but it’s not just better, it’s over twice as productive. So far this year, the duo is on the ice for 1.190 goals for per 20 minutes of five-on-five time; Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski are at 0.804 goals per 20 minutes, Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin are at 0.814, and Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are at 1.080. That’s right, so far this year, Claude Giroux and Michael Raffl are on the ice for goals at a higher rate than Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.
Philadelphia goes into Toronto tonight to face the Maple Leafs. Assuming the Giroux line is matched against Toronto’s top line, there could be fireworks on the ice. With plus/minus not being a concern on DraftKings, Raffl is a very good, very cheap option that helps fit in more expensive players, and has a good chance of achieving value.
Speaking of Giroux, he was released yesterday in the final matchups for this week’s Sportsnet Pick ‘n Play here on Sportsnet.ca, going up against Phil Kessel. It seems like a bit of a toss-up, but I will lean to the centre over the winger and take Giroux.
*Some stats courtesy of Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, NHL.com, and Left Wing Lock.
