NHL Power Rankings: Small Sample Size Edition

Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his first career NHL goal. (Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images)

When the first guy you fall in love with cheats on you, then, logically, all men are pigs.

When the first season of Californication is funny and smart and well thought out, then it makes perfect sense to assume the next six seasons will all be worth your precious sofa time, right?

When Donald Trump’s wife comes forward to say he’s not a misogynist, well, there’s no point in polling anyone else he’s met.

So we feel entirely confident extracting the following 30 predictions based on the two, three or four NHL games each team has played in this young campaign.

It’s the NHL Power Rankings: Small Sample Size Edition.

Rank Team Previous
1

The resilient Lightning kicked off their season by overcoming back-to-back multi-goal deficits, and GM/wizard Steve Yzerman convinced star Nikita Kucherov to sign for well below market value.
Small sample size stat: Yzerman is on pace to sign Hampus Lindholm for a cap hit $2 million.

1
2

The NHL-leading Blues have knocked off three decent teams in the Rangers, Wild and Blackhawks.
Small sample size stat: Nail Yakupov will score a career-best 41 points, and Chicago defenceman Brent “Own Goal” Seabrook will pitch in for eight per cent of the Blues’ total goals.

7
3

The Sharks (3-1) have picked up right where they left off, and their stars are acting like their best players.
Small sample size stat: Brent Burns is tracking for a 164-point season and $80-million contract extension.

5
4

Unlike last season, the absence of Carey Price hasn’t derailed the Habs. Although Andrew Shaw needs to take his aggression down a peg, Alexander Radulov has showed signs of clicking with Alex Galchenyuk.
Small sample size stat: Al Montoya is on pace to start all 82 games for Montreal; Price will play zero.

12
5

Doing well on and off the ice, Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby raised $21,000 for brain cancer research by auction off his Team Canada Gord Downie mask. Great stuff.
Small sample size stat: Holtby will cure cancer.

2
6

I power-ranked the Canucks dead last to open the season, and then they went and rallied off three wins to begin their supposedly disastrous campaign.
Small sample size stat: The Canucks will make me look stupid 82 times by early April.

30
7

Roberto Luongo was named Third Star of the Week as he posted a .957 save percentage and Twitter-joked his way past Jacques Plante on the all-time wins list.
Small sample size stat: Luongo will be the third most valuable NHLer in 2016-17.

17
8

Who needs defence? The Senators (17 goals in a week) wield the most explosive offence in the East.
Small sample size stat: Ottawa will average 4.25 goals per game, and need every one of them to snatch a wild-card spot.

21
9

The always-scary Dallas offence has received incredibly balanced scoring — six players are tied for the club lead with three points.
Small sample size stat: Adam Cracknell will finish the season with as many points as Jamie Benn.

8
10

Eleven different Rangers found the scoresheet during New York’s 7-4 victory over the Sharks Monday, and now 17(!) New York players have points.
Small sample size stat: 465 different New York Rangers will register a point in the 2016-17 season.

16
11

Despite Patrice Bergeron’s absence, Boston won two of its first three contests.
Small sample size stat: After his five-point opening night, Brad Marchand was on pace for a personal-best 410-point season. Unsustainable.

14
12

Minnesota — now home to Eric Staal and Bruce Boudreau, if you recall — is now 14-0-2 all-time at Xcel Energy Center home openers. A crazy stat.
Small sample size stat: Staal is on target for 27 goals, more than double his output last season.

15
13

So the Oilers have the league’s youngest captain and its scoring leader. They also have the season’s first mild controversy, as Todd McLellan’s “Bad News Bears” practised on a mandatory off-day.
Small sample size stat: Wayne Gretzky will make 50 public appearances in 39 days.

26
14

Free agent find Joe Colborne is scoring hat tricks, and new coach Jared Bednar waited until Tuesday night to lose a game with the Avs (including pre-season).
Small sample size stat: Patrick Roy is on pace to turn 82 shades of rouge.

13
15

The Blackhawks (2-2-0) are off to a somewhat shaky start — though not as shaky as the rendition of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” sung by Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook at the NLCS.
Small sample size stat: Those three tenors will embark on tour, butchering other sporting anthems such as “The Hockey Song” and “Basketball Jones” through the winter.

3
16

The youthful Leafs have yet to lose a game in regulation, and the rookies — Connor Brown, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander — are living up to the hype.
Small sample size stat: After two NHL periods, Matthews was on pace for 492 goals. This would be a single-season record, according to our fact checkers.

28
17

The champs opened up their 50th season with five points in three games, an awesome Phil Kessel video gone viral, and assurance from their CEO that the team is no longer for sale.
Small sample size stat: You don’t want to be the guy who picked Sidney Crosby first overall in your fantasy draft.

6
18

Despite a rash of early-season injuries, the Sabres are a respectable 1-1-1 after Week 1.
Small sample size stat: Ryan O’Reilly will enjoy 27 four-point games this season and will never hesitate to shoot on Cam Talbot from centre ice.

22
19

Waiver pickup P.A. Parenteau is tied for the Devils’ lead in points, while new guy Taylor Hall has already potted two goals.
Small sample size stat: GM Ray Shero will keep the turnover going and attempt to acquire a new player every other month.

24
20

The new-look, young-blood Coyotes kicked off what should be a compelling season with an Oliver Ekman-Larsson OT winner.
Small sample size stat: OEL = ROW

27
21

Trying to keep their heads above water with injuries and suspensions on the blue line, the Flyers are leaning on contributions from exciting rookies like Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny.
Small sample size stat: Radko Gudas on pace to get suspended 20 times.

23
22

After more than 650 games in the league, Mike Green fired his first career hat trick and secured a Red Wings victory in their final home opener at Joe Louis Arena.
Small sample size stat: Green is on schedule for 27 hat tricks this season. Anytime a veteran blue-liner contributes that much offence, you don’t complain about his contract.

20
23

The Predators are 1-2-0 in the P.K. Subban Era, while Montreal is 2-0-1 since acquiring Shea Weber.
Small sample size stat: The Canadiens won the trade.

4
24

The bad: Jacob Trouba is still unsigned. The good: Patrik Laine scored in his debut, new captain Blake Wheeler is on fire early, and children under two are now allowed free entry to outdoor games.
Small sample size stat: 20,000 babies invade Sunday’s Heritage Classic.

19
25

The Islanders got out of a mini slump when Josh Bailey waltzed through the entire Ducks roster to pot an OT game-winner Sunday.
Small sample size stat: Bailey will finish with a team-high 27 game-winning goals.

10
26

So Calgary goes out and finds two new goalies, yet still ranks last in goals against (17).
Small sample size stat: Brian Elliott (.818 save percentage) loses starting role to Chad Johnson (.923).

18
27

Carolina drew the toughest October schedule, opening its season with six consecutive road games stretching from Vancouver to Philadelphia.
Small sample size stat: The Hurricanes will not play a home game in 2016-17.

25
28

The winless Blue Jackets have stumbled out of the gate under head coach John Tortorella, much like they did last fall under coach Todd Richards, who was fired on Oct. 21.
Small sample size stat: Bodog lists Tortorella as the favourite “first NHL coach fired” at 13/4 odds.

29
29

Time to hit the panic button yet? The Ducks are winless in four games, their once-dominant defence is among the NHL’s worst, and there’s no cap space to sign RFA Hampus Lindholm.
Small sample size stat: Lindholm never puts on a pair of skates again.

9
30

The 0-3 Kings’ loss of starter Jonathan Quick to long-term injury will likely have a more devastating effect than even the Sabres’ loss of Jack Eichel.
Small sample size stat: The once-dominant Kings will finish dead last in the NHL.

11

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