Today we continue with our previews leading up to opening night on Oct. 7 as sportsnet.ca NHL analysts Mark Spector, Mike Brophy get you ready for the season by asking a few of the burning questions surrounding each team.
In addition, Hall of Fame writer Jim Kelley presents five features that examines the top prospects to watch, top rookies, coaches on the hot seat, season storylines and narrowing down who has a shot at supplanting Henrik Sedin as league MVP.
Today, we examine the Northwest Division.
It has been a slow transition in Vancouver, from the disappointing Naslund-Bertuzzi years to a Sedin era that shows even more promise. But finally, The ‘Team With A Legitimate Chance’ has arrived in Vancouver.
The 2010-11 season brings the best, most well-rounded Canucks line-up in as long as we can remember, a genuine Stanley Cup contender in anyone’s books. Vancouver will win the Northwest with relative ease, and after two years of second-round losses, should make the Conference Final next spring.
From there… who knows?
On to the Burning Qs:
How much better is the blue-line this year than last?
Much better. They may have lost some toughness with the departure of Willie Mitchell, but a blue-line that was playing Andrew Alberts at No. 6 last year has far better depth now. Nabbing Dan Hamhuis as a UFA, and trading at the draft for Keith Ballard, Vancouver can be one of the teams that has the puck so much through a 60-minute game, the other team simply can’t find enough time of possession to get its chances. Alex Edler and Christian Ehrhoff give Vancouver four excellent puck-movers in the Top 4, with a tough-as-nails third pairing of Shane O’Brien and Kevin Bieksa — at least until Sami Salo comes back from his Achilles’ injury.
Can Henrik Sedin win the Art Ross again?
Absolutely. If Daniel plays a full season, history tells us that the 112 points Henrik had last season — when Daniel lost 19 games to injury — will be more like 120-125. Their career stats are almost identical. A more pressing issue may be how quickly does Alex Burrows return from shoulder surgery, and will his catch-up process impinge on the Sedins’ totals?
Will Roberto Luongo be better without the captaincy?
Frankly, we can’t see the loss of the ‘C’ helping Luongo’s saves percentage. But come playoff time, when the heat is on a guy who has turned in back to back average playoff performances for Vancouver, at least he’ll be spared some of the daily rituals the captaincy brings. He can shrug off the media, sure, but even more so, he doesn’t have to be the guy to step up after a loss and say, “We’ve got to play tougher, block more shots and want this thing more.” Of course the new captain, whoever he may be, might just have to point out the obvious if Luongo has another soft playoff.
Are the Canucks gritty enough?
That’s always the question with this club. The one element it has lacked — and did not add much of this summer — is grit. We’re not talking fighting here. They just need to be tougher to play against on some nights. With Mitchell gone and Burrows out, that’s some sandpaper out of the line-up. Two key elements: If Rick Rypien could move up to third-line duty, and Shane O’Brien doesn’t lose too much ice time with the infusion of Hamhuis and Ballard.
How will the Canucks do?
They’ll win the weak Northwest Division for fun. So they’ll enter the playoffs as a Top 3 seed, and again, coming out of the weakest division in the West, Vancouver has an excellent chance to win the No. 1 seed. After that, it’s up to a team that couldn’t solve Chicago in Round 2 the past two springs to find whatever it takes to get over the hump. If GM Mike Gillis can find some grit, perhaps trade a defenceman at the deadline for some tough, hard to play against playoff experience on the wing, the Canucks could win their first Stanley Cup in 40 years.
The theme in Colorado is momentum.
Can a group of players that improved both individually and collectively last season more than anyone thought they could, keep the ball rolling?
Historically, in a group this young, some will take a step back. But who? And how far? Or can they defy the odds?
On to the Burning Qs:
Can goalie Craig Anderson be as good again this year?
You could argue Anderson was the most impactful UFA signing of the summer of ’09 — and certainly the best value at a cap hit of $1.8 M — as he dragged an Avalanche team into the playoffs that nobody thought would even be close after a 28th place finish in 2008-09. Anderson more than doubled his games played (71) and wins (38) while lowering his GAA from the previous year in Florida to 2.64. This is a huge year for Anderson, when we’ll find out whether his great year was a Tim Thomas one-off, or whether he’s the kind of guy who could command major millions as a UFA next summer.
Three important forwards — Matt Duchesne, Chris Stewart and Peter Mueller. Can they back up last year?
Duchesne topped all rookies with a 55-point season as an 18-year-old. There is no evidence that he won’t go up from here, as Duchesne is an honest worker. Chris Stewart, 22, figured it out last year after yo-yoing between Denver and Erie, putting up 28 goals and 64 points in 09-10 —- up from a career high of 19 points. And Peter Mueller, 22, whose career was hemorrhaging in Phoenix, came over for Wojtek Wolski and lit it up in the final 15 games with Colorado with 9-11-20. It is likely one of these three drops off after three career performances. However, a pre-season concussion to Mueller leaves the forward out indefinitely.
How good can Paul Stastny be?
Well, at age 24 his 79 points in 81 games made him the NHL’s 18th-leading scorer, ahead of such luminaries as Evgeni Malkin, Corey Perry, Daniel Alfredsson and Pavel Datsyuk. He had nearly 70 percent of his points at even strength, and has become a consistent young leader in Denver with 264 points in 274 career games. Stastny is the real deal.
How will the Avalanche do?
They can finish second in the Northwest ahead of Calgary, but will fight to the end to repeat their eighth-place finish of a year ago in the West. It is always iffy, the season after so many younger players have career years. The Avs have something here, no doubt about it, but young careers seldom ascend in a straight line. This could be a fallback year for two or three of the young Avalanche.
The end is near for the Flames as we know them.
Stacking up as the second-oldest team in the NHL with an average age of 30.278 — only Detroit is older at 31.168, according to nhlnumbers.com — this group can’t stay together forever. The problem is, the Flames don’t have a massive infusion of drafted talent on the way up.
After bringing back Olli Jokinen and Alex Tanguay, trading away Dion Phaneuf and acquiring cap-heavy Ales Kotalik, this could be a make-or-break season for GM Darryl Sutter, who is entering his eighth at the helm.
On to the Burning Qs:
What’s the story on Jokinen?
Sutter loves the guy — even if most Flames fans don’t. Remember the Calgary Herald headline after the Flames signed Jokinen on July 1? “You Must Be Jokinen!” Big Olli started off with a splash in his last trip through Cowtown, but ended up with 19 goals and a minus-5 rating in 75 games spread between 08-09 and 09-10. A guy who averaged 84 points over three seasons in Florida (’05-’08) has averaged just 49 points in the past two seasons. He’s a big man who turns 32 in December. Can Jokinen get the ship turned around? Perhaps, but he will defy the odds if he does. The Finn is downplaying a back injury that forced him out of a pre-season game against Phoenix.
And Tanguay? Isn’t he on the downswing too?
Some numbers: 81, 58, 41, 37. Those are Tanguay’s point-totals over the past four seasons. So he, like Jokinen, is looking to turn his career around in Calgary. The positive way to look at it is, on a top line with each other and aging Jarome Iginla (now 33), if these guys can all catch the spark together, it could be a wonderful resurgence in Calgary. If their downslide continues however, we wouldn’t want to be Iginla. Or the rest of the Flames, for that matter.
Name some positives on the Flames?
Miikka Kiprusoff is still an elite goalie in the NHL. God help the Flames if his game begins to slip (he turns 34 on Oct. 26), but there have been no signs as of yet. Turku Broda had his best season last year — .920 saves percentage, 2.31 GAA — in four years last season. Mikael Backlund, 21, is Calgary’s best prospect. He had a goal and 10 points in 23 games last year, and will be counted on for second line offence this season. Undrafted D-man Mark Giordano was the best rearguard on a blue-line that included Phaneuf, Robyn Regehr and Jay Bouwmeester last season, with 30 points. Matt Stajan is in a second-line centre role, where he should be; Ian White ended up with 51 points despite being traded from Toronto, and went plus-7 in 27 Flames games; Rene Bourque’s goal totals have gone from 10, to 21, to 27 in the past three years, and he is still in his prime, at 28; and Nik Hagman is another good, under-rated second-line player who gives Calgary the best Top 6 offensively it has had in ages.
How will the Flames do?
This may be the toughest read in the Western Conference. Do they continue to slide after missing the playoffs last year for the first time in six seasons? Or, with depth up front, can age turn into experience, and help a franchise stop (or at least delay) a slide that appears inevitable when you look down the birth certificates? This may be Jarome Iginla’s team, but it’s a ship steered by first-line centre Jokinen. If he restarts his career, the Flames will follow. If not, it could be a long year. We’re betting on the latter, sorry. No playoffs in Calgary next spring.
One thing the Oilers will have in its favour this year is, nobody — and we mean nobody — is stressing over a game against Edmonton in 2010-11.
That means the fourth-youngest team in the NHL — including first-year NHLers Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi and Jordan Eberle — will sneak up on teams on a lot of nights, and get less than their ‘A’ game.
Edmonton finished 30th last year — dead last. But what many people forget is, injuries ended the season of their best player, Ales Hemsky, and No. 1 goalie, Nikolai Khabibulin, in November. The club’s best defenceman, Sheldon Souray, was gone in January. In fact, he’s still gone.
They weren’t a good team, but not as bad as 30th. This season? They’re more likely to be picked near 30th, and surprise by finishing closer to 20th.
On to the Burning Qs:
How big an impact will Taylor Hall have?
Well, last season John Tavares entered the league on Long Island with better junior stats. Tavares averaged 119 points over his last three years in the OHL, while Hall averaged 93 points. As a rookie, Tavares scored 24-30-54 and a minus-15 playing with NYI next to centre Doug Weight, who took Tavares under his wing. If Hall scored at exactly the same rate compared to Tavares in the NHL as he did in junior, his rookie numbers would project as 19 goals and 43 points. It will be a different dynamic in Edmonton though. With three prized rookies playing in front of packed houses at home and in Canada, this team could thrive on emotion some nights.
The Hockeycentral Season Preview Show airs Tuesday, Oct. 5, 8pm ET (East and Ontario), 8pm MT (West) and 8pm PT (Pacific).
What about the other two, Eberle and Paajarvi?
Paajarvi is ahead of most rookies. He played 134 games over three seasons in the Swedish Elite League, and had 12 points to make the tournament All-Star team at the men’s world championships last season. He’s also bigger than Hall and Eberle at 6-1, and skates exceptionally well. He’s ready for the step. Eberle is two inches shorter, but in two late-season AHL stints combined for nine goals and 23 points in 20 pro games. And we’ve all seen he can perform in the clutch — at the World Junior level anyhow. It’s hard to think one team can bring up three first-year pros and they’ll all thrive. But picking the one that won’t in Edmonton is no easy task.
How big a distraction will Nikolai Khabibulin’s extreme DUI become?
No one knows if Khabibulin’s lawyer will be successful in delaying the appeal of his conviction on the extreme DUI until July. If he can, then it will be little distraction. If Khabibulin finds himself in a Scottsdale courtroom in December, and possibly serving time in January, it will be a humungous distraction. How the Oilers No. 1 will suffer mentally through the process is a very real concern as well. Then there is his surgically repaired back… Yeesh.
How will the Oilers do?
Better than most people think, we say. They won’t make the playoffs, but in mid-February they’ll still be able to look at eighth spot and say, if we go on a run, we can get there. They likely won’t, and will finish between 20th and 22nd in the overall standings, meaning no lottery pick again next summer. Between a weak Northwest and a ton of jump in these young legs, if Khabibulin holds it together — and GM Steve Tambellini turns Sheldon Souray into something, anything — the Oilers could get to 85 points, after just 62 last season.
The Wild are another one of those ‘Nowhere Franchises’. Like Columbus, Atlanta, or Florida, we’re into Year 10 in Minny and, frankly, there’s just not much going on here.
They’ve burned through the honeymoon period without winning much, and now they’re on a second GM, crowds and revenues are waning, and the Wild are, to a certain extent, treading water.
The Wild have missed the playoffs in four of the past six seasons, sinking back to 13th in the conference last season. There is no risk that they’ll find the Top 8 this time around.
On to the Burning Qs:
Wasn’t Martin Havlat supposed to be the answer?
In his first year as Wild GM last season, Chuck Fletcher made a statement with Havlat that Minny was going to be a free agent player. Havlat, given a six-year, $30-million deal, rewarded the team with just 18 goals in 73 games — and a minus-19 defensive rating. His 54 points were 23 less than he’d had the year before on a far better Chicago club, and his defensive rating plummeted an amazing 48 points — from plus-29 to minus-19 — showing Wild fans that perhaps Havlat is a better support guy than the type of superstar that can carry a club.
So, how’s the market doing, anyhow?
The longest-active sell-out streak in the NHL ended with the first preseason game this fall, as the Wild failed to sell-out the first home game in franchise history. Minnesota had the third-longest recorded sell-out streak in NHL history at 409 consecutive sell-outs. That’s 369 regular-season games, 27 pre-season contests and 13 playoff games during its nine seasons. It’s not time to panic yet, but a struggling economy and an annually middle-of-the-road team will mean empty seats in Minny for the first time ever this season. It’s the same formula that afflicted Columbus, Colorado, Dallas and others after years of sell outs.
The Hockeycentral Season Preview Show airs Tuesday, Oct. 5, 8pm ET (East and Ontario), 8pm MT (West) and 8pm PT (Pacific).
What’s new in Minnesota?
John Madden ended up there, a casualty of the Chicago blow-up. He’s a fine leader, good penalty killer and excellent face-off man, but may be wasted on a team like this one. Brad Staubitz brings some toughness over from San Jose, as for the first time in years the Wild won’t have the toughest, biggest guy on the ice every night, with Derek Boogaard signing in New York. Matt Cullen came in as a free agent, a 45- or 50-point guy who might help light a fire under Havlat. There’s a pretty good Top 4 on defence here, and Nik Backstrom gives them plenty of goaltending. So why is it so hard to like this team?
How will Wild do?
They’ll get some easier points being in the Northwest, particularly if Calgary struggles. But a team that ranked 22nd in the NHL in offence last year and dead last in shots on goal per game (27.6) lacks pop again. There will be no playoffs in Minnesota this year.