(1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. (7) Ottawa Senators
Season series: Penguins won 3-0-0.
They have a history: “On our way to Pitt. Hopefully the cards treat me better this trip,” tweeted Sens defenceman Erik Karlsson in advance of Game 1. “Hopefully I won’t spill coffee on my pants.” The defending Norris Trophy winner was making light of February’s well-documented encounter with Penguins forward Matt Cooke, whose skate blade sliced his Achilles in February. Though neither team wants to dwell on it, that incident will colour this series one way or another: as a seed for hate or a touchstone for the Karlsson recovery tale. If the Sens were able to muster up bad blood with the previously amicable Habs in Round 1, imagine what could come of this series. Pittsburgh and Ottawa have met thrice in the playoffs already, the Pens taking two of three series, including the most recent one — a six-gamer in the opening round of 2010. In 2007 and 2008, the winner of the Pens-Sens series went on to reach the Stanley Cup final.
For the Penguins to win: They will need to tighten up their defence, and either Tomas Vokoun or Marc-Andre Fleury must play in the general vicinity of Craig Anderson’s level. Anderson is unlikely to be outshone here; the Penguins should register more shots on net. But the Ottawa gem will not give up goals the way Evgeni Nabokov did in Round 1. The Pens must get power plays and crash the crease, but more important, improve their own defence. While the Sens lack a Jonathan Tavares — and Jason Spezza’s health remains in doubt — this is a team that isn’t discouraged when trailing; the Sens will pucks into the net at crucial times. Pittsburgh needs to play more responsibly defensively. A they-score-five-we-score-six approach won’t fly here.
For the Senators to win: Their penalty kill must be as fantastic as it was against the Montreal Canadiens. As a reward for giving the Habs’ dangerous special team fits, the Sens killers will be tasked with shutting down Crosby, Malkin, Iginla, Neal, etc. The best way to do that would be to stay out of the box. This presents a bit of a paradox since getting the Pens off-focus is the path to victory. Look how the Sens won the battle of the mind over Montreal, who resorted to name-calling and crying foul. Or look how the Pens unraveled against the Flyers last year once the hits and fits overshadowed pure skill. In brief, the Sens must own their peskiness; Anderson and Karlsson must continue to act like the Vezina/Norris winners they would be if they never got injured; Spezza needs to come back; and Paul MacLean needs to use up timeouts like he’s coaching in the NBA.
Matchup to watch: Vokoun vs. Fleury. After Fleury was flummoxed early by the Islanders in Round 1 and saw his postseason reputation take another blow, Vokoun took over in Game 5 and steadied the ship. But what if journeyman Vokoun, who will start Game 1 against Ottawa, begins to falter? Coach Bylsma could face a tough call.
Big question: When will Jason Spezza return to action?
Best bet: Penguins in six.
Hockey Central insider predictions
Chris Johnston: Senators
Doug MacLean: Penguins
Daren Millard: Senators
Scott Morrison: Penguins
John Shannon: Penguins
Mark Spector: Penguins
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