The Minnesota Wild are crushing the Colorado Avalanche in almost every advanced statistical category. On the archaic stats, however, the series is tied 2-2 and the Avs have outscored Minnesota 10-9.
So who are we supposed to be believe? Clearly the eye test supports the advanced stats. And with quarterback Tyson Barrie out long-term, it’s starting to look like the only chance the Avs have of winning this Round 1 series is if goaltender Semyon Varlamov steals two more games.
According to extraskater.com, the “5-on-5 Score Close” series count has Minnesota ahead 6-5 in goals. And as the series shifts back to Denver tied 2-2, the Wild leads in the basic possession stat, Corsi, by a 61% to 39% count.
If you’re skeptical about fancy stats, here’s one old-school stat that also tells the story in this series: The average shots on goal through four games has been 35.8 to 23.5 for the Wild. When the score is close — tied in any period or within one goal in the first or second periods — the shot totals favour Minnesota 78-43.
It’s funny how the playoffs go, isn’t it? Five days ago we were marveling at this young, dynamic Colorado team, yet another Western powerhouse on the rise. Then the Avs get dominated in games 3 and 4 at the Excel Center in St. Paul, and we notice that Darcy Kuemper leads all NHL goalies in saves percentage (.979) and goals against average (0.40) thus far in Round 1.
Now it’s Colorado that is hanging on. We love the first round.
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The NHL has already seen more multi-goal comebacks in this first round than any other Round 1 in history, with Boston’s comeback in Detroit marking the ninth time in 31 games that a team has come back from being down two goals or more.
This is a fantastic sign for the game. Recall the days of the Mad Trapper — Jacques Lemaire’s insufferable defensive system in New Jersey. Or the 2004 Stanley Cup Final between Calgary and Tampa Bay, in which the team that scored first won all seven games. That series proved to be the Last Great Rodeo, with the era of clutching and grabbing ending after the 2004 lockout. There were no comebacks because the minute someone got the lead, they fell back into a trap and used their sticks to slow everyone down.
Today’s comebacks are evidence that teams can score goals, even when the leading club falls back into a defensive posture. It has spawned the term “score effects,” which is much better than the old hook ‘n’ ride days, when Mario Lemieux gave us the term “garage league.”
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They say the series does not begin until one team wins on the road, so perhaps the series that appears to be the tightest hasn’t truly even begun yet. We’re taking about Chicago-St. Louis, a 2-2 tie that has featured three overtime games and could easily be over had the Blues not tied up games 1 and 2 in the dying seconds before winning in overtime.
This is an extremely important time in the evolution of the Blues organization, after dropping out of the playoffs in Round 1 last season and Round 2 the year before. St. Louis, over the last three regular seasons, has amassed 280 points. That ranks fourth in the NHL behind only Pittsburgh (289), Chicago (285) and Boston (281). That makes the Blues an elite regular-season team — but that title doesn’t mean much if you don’t follow it up.
In the past two postseasons Chicago has won a Stanley Cup in 2013, when they beat the Bruins. Including this spring, the Blackhawks are playing in their seventh playoff round in the past three playoffs, Pittsburgh its sixth, Boston its ninth. Meanwhile, the Blues are life and death in only their fourth series in the past three postseasons.
With tying goals at 18:15 and 19:53 of the third period in games 1 and 2, respectively, the Blues are living dangerously. It doesn’t appear captain David Backes will return for Game 5 Friday, though that’s a state secret in Missouri, and now Patrick Kane is heating up for the Blackhawks.
Kane had one goal through the first three games of the series, but had a three-point night in Game 4. If that performance lights his fuse, the Blues could be in trouble.