With Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray injured to begin the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Penguins initially had to turn to Jeff Zatkoff for a couple of games, before Murray was healthy enough to take over the crease. Since that moment, Murray has been one of the biggest stories of the NHL’s post-season.
Murray’s .944 save percentage ranks second among remaining goaltenders to only Vezina finalist Braden Holtby, but Fleury is now healthy, which has some wondering if Murray is about to lose the net.
That speculation should have been stamped out quite conclusively with Murray’s fantastic performance in Game 3 against the Capitals, stopping 47 of 49 shots in a 3-2 victory, but Fleury has been the starting goaltender in Pittsburgh for over a decade, so the situation may not be so clear if Murray stumbles even once.
The other wrinkle here is that Fleury had a very strong season for the Penguins, and Murray, while brilliant, has a very short track record.
Using expected save percentages, we can see which goalie is likely to give the Penguins the best chance to win right now. First, we need to look at league averages.
Knowing the league averages, we can then look at the two goalies. First, let’s take a look at Fleury.
As mentioned earlier, Fleury had a very strong season for the Penguins, and was one of the few goalies to stop more than 80 per cent of shots against from the Red Zone or Inner Slot area. However, Fleury was below average from the Center Point, the Outside North East, and both Outer Slot regions, even if just slightly.
The Red Zone save percentage is more predictive of future performance, but Fleury was also more prone to give up soft goals than an average goalie, which fits with the narrative of his career overall; great saves on high quality chances, but often lets in back breakers.
You should also factor in that Fleury hasn’t played since March 31, so there will most likely be rust in his game as well, but let’s look at Murray first.
Murray’s Red Zone save percentage isn’t as high as Fleury’s, though it is rising consistently the more games he plays, and it is close. What’s amazing about Murray though, is that he’s above league average from every area. That kind of performance isn’t likely to last forever, with the NHL’s best goalies usually above average in five or six of eight zones, however Murray is also far above average in the areas that tend to stay consistent.
It’s very early in Murray’s career, but he has the makings of a real stud goaltender, and the Penguins would have to be crazy to take him out of the net right now. Fleury is more than capable if he falters, but the leash should be long.