TORONTO – The pain has subsided, but there are still occasional bouts of indigestion.
By almost every measurement, Mike Babcock’s second season behind the Toronto Maple Leafs bench has started better than his first. There are two points more in the bank through 20 games than a year ago, and they were earned using a lineup that is two years younger per player, on average.
That dramatic youth movement is responsible for a large portion of what’s happened here over the first six weeks – most of it good, some of it not so good.
Babcock established a target of earning six points for every five-game segment of the schedule, and the 8-8-4 Leafs are currently lagging four points behind that pace. But they’re still within reach of the wild card teams in the Eastern Conference and hope to remain in the playoff hunt.
“[After] our first 20 games, we’re .500 and have 20 points,” Babcock said following Wednesday’s 5-4 shootout loss in New Jersey. “It gives us a chance, which is real positive for our group. We’ve got a young group that’s going to get better. It’s very evident when you watch us play we’ve got lots to work on.”
What the first quarter of the schedule shows as much as anything is that they’ve made some significant strides since a 30th-place finish. Here’s a statistical look at how the Maple Leafs stack up through 20 games this season vs. where they were last year:
Score-Adjusted Corsi
2015-16: 48 per cent (23rd in NHL)
2016-17: 51.1 per cent (13th in NHL)
Shots Per Game
2015-16: 29.7
2016-17: 32.2
Shots Against Per Game
2015-16: 31.3
2016-17: 33.2
Goals For
2015-16: 46
2016-17: 62
Goals Against
2015-16: 53
2016-17: 67
Power Play
2015-16: 21 per cent (9th in NHL)
2016-17: 21.1 per cent (11th in NHL)
Penalty Kill
2015-16: 80.6 per cent (16th in NHL)
2016-17: 82 per cent (14th in NHL)
There’s a fair bit to unpack here.
Toronto is generating more shots and significantly more goals – nearly one per game, on average – and much of that can be attributed to an infusion of talent.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander are big offensive upgrades while Zach Hyman, Connor Brown and defenceman Connor Carrick have helped around the margins.
This is exactly what the organization envisioned when it brought all the kids in at the same time. In fact, they’ve probably made an even larger impact than expected.
However, some obvious problem spots remain.
The shots and goals against are both up from last year, and can’t entirely be linked to the slow start by No. 1 goalie Frederik Andersen or some spotty outings from backup Jhonas Enroth.
Defensive play will continue to be a huge focal point for a coaching staff that has continued to preach the same fundamentals system-wise since the start of training camp.
The belief internally is that improvement will show over time as the younger players get more comfortable and make fewer mistakes.
How much progress they’re able to make will likely determine whether they remain in the playoff chase, especially since Andersen has turned his game around dramatically in November.
Overall, the numbers paint the picture of a team that has a place in the post-season discussion – complete with respectable specialty teams and an ability to generate offence at an elite level.
The Leafs of 2016-17 certainly bear little resemblance to the team that stumbled to the finish that brought Matthews to Toronto.
Perhaps the most telling statistic comes from the seven rookies who have combined to record 71 points already.
Last year, the Leafs only got 44 for the entire season from players eligible to win the Calder Trophy.
No wonder there’s been a noticeable boost in some areas you can’t tangibly measure – optimism and enthusiasm – with this group.
“I think from a fan’s perspective there’s a little more excitement now than there has been in the past,” veteran centre Tyler Bozak said earlier this week. “Just with the faces we have in here, the young guys and the talent they have. So I think that’s good.”
Even on the off-nights, Babcock would surely agree.
