TAMPA, Fla. — The extra day of rest before Game 7 is good for the Rangers and Lightning. It is murder for everyone else.
For all of the sense we’ll try to make about what’s going to happen at Madison Square Garden on Friday night, the simple truth is this: It’s one game with tremendous consequences. Luck can — and probably will — play a role in the final outcome.
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What has happened immediately before is unlikely to have any bearing on the grand occasion, just as when New York entered Game 4 having allowed 12 goals the previous two games and spanked Tampa. Or when the Lightning came back two nights after that to stifle the Rangers.
Even the stat du jour only tells us so much.
The Rangers are 7-0 all-time when playing a Game 7 at MSG, but that seems to suggest a certainty that simply isn’t there. As Lightning winger Alex Killorn put it: “I guess that means they’re due to lose one, eh?”
New York is a good team with a great goalie and an outstanding track record in these situations. And it could still lose on a shot that hits a stick or a shin pad or the outside of a skate blade.
Or it might win that way, naturally.
That’s what makes this so darn compelling. Sixty minutes (or more) to decide who goes to the Stanley Cup final — the game of their lives — with all of the fundamental unpredictability you have to accept from a sport played with a rubber puck on a sheet of ice.
“The one thing is, it is a seventh game, and I don’t think there’s any secrets between the two teams anymore,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said Wednesday. “It’s just going to be one of those games where you suit up and play and let’s see who comes out on top.”
The two days of lead-up offer a chance for players to heal their bodies and minds. There are all sorts of unknown injuries being weathered right now, to say nothing of the flu bug working its way through the Lightning dressing room.
For the coaches, this is an extra opportunity to examine the plan of attack. Neither Cooper nor counterpart Alain Vigneault play the game, but they do set the tone and have considerable influence over the attitude of the group.
Vigneault, for example, took centres Derick Brassard and Derek Stepan aside before Game 6 and challenged them to be better. It was a message that lit a fire under Brassard, and he responded with a three-goal, five-point performance.
No doubt more buttons are being pushed behind the scenes.
With another major step towards a championship in view, the key will be focusing the mind and taking care of the details. Control what you can control. It is in this area where New York’s excellent record in elimination games should come in handy.
“Other than being in that situation and understanding what it takes mentally, there is not much else you can take from the experience of being there before,” said Stepan. “I think knowing how to handle yourself is probably the biggest thing.”
This has been a fascinating Eastern Conference final full of swings in emotion. When you boil six disparate games down into a general theme, it’s really been about offence vs. offence.
Despite facing Henrik Lundqvist, Tampa’s top two forward lines have scored an astounding 18 times in this series — an average of three per game — but the Rangers are still ahead 20-19 in goals overall (thanks to an empty netter).
So brace yourself for plenty of talk about the need to “tighten up” and “limit chances” after the teams each practice in their home city on Thursday. At this point, run-and-gun is a synonym for risky.
And then there are the immeasurable influences such as pressure. With the stakes so high at the end of a season so long, nerves will be unavoidable for rookies and 15-year veterans alike.
“Yeah, it can be stressful,” said Rangers winger Rick Nash. “The reality is the game is coming no matter what, and you might as well turn that stress into energy and controlled emotions. It’s a tough balance, for sure.”
In the agonizing wait until puck drop, we’re left to pour over history books for hints about what to expect. It’s an inherently futile exercise.
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For example, home teams are 94-65 all-time in Game 7s. That’s a relevant stat unless Tampa wins on Friday and it’s not.
Lightning defenceman Victor Hedman chose to point out that his team has won four of its five road games against the Rangers this season.
“We know we can beat them in New York,” he said.
What he didn’t mention is the fact they know they can lose there, too.
