A few thoughts as the Canucks take on the league-leading Predators Tuesday night in Nashville.
• The Predators have sold out more home games this season (14 of 19) than the Canucks.
• The Predators scouted Pekka Rinne almost as an afterthought. Here is a great read by Kevin Allen about why the Preds took Rinne back in 2004.
Rinne told me today that when he was drafted (258th overall in 2004) he thought it was a great feather in his cap as he could always say he was an NHL draft pick. Um, Pekka, the Hart Trophy might be a slightly larger feather for you.
• It seems Mike Ribeiro has found a nice fit in Nashville and vice versa. Ribeiro has always been a talented player, but his act has wore thin wherever he’s played. The Coyotes even bought him out after just one year of a 22-million dollar deal this past summer citing “behavioural issues.”
By all accounts Ribeiro has been a model citizen this season. He and his family bought a home just outside Nashville and have settled into the community nicely (his wife Tamara and their three children weren’t with him in Phoenix). He’s also been great on the ice with nine goals and a team-leading 27 assists. Not bad for a guy making just more than a million bucks.
There haven’t been many “feel good” stories surrounding Ribeiro in the past so here’s hoping this is the start.
• By now, everyone has heard about Vancouver’s famous Roxy flu. Well, Nashville’s Tootsie’s flu just might be the league’s second-strongest strain. And there is no doubt it hits broadcasters the hardest.
LACK OF SCORING
Alright, let’s move on to the Canucks. Vancouver arrives in Nashville having lost two straight games. The Canucks scored one goal versus Roberto Luongo and the Panthers before being shut out by some other dude in a Flames jersey.
Offensively, the Canucks have been, well, offensive recently. And I hate to say it, but they are looking about as dangerous as they did in the second half of last season. As far as goal scoring goes, the Canucks are definitely not trending in the right direction. I sought out Thomas Drance from thescore.com to help hammer this point home.
It’s been noted the Canucks are dead last in the NHL in even strength goals since November 29.That’s a bit of a misleading way to put it, since the Canucks have played fewer games during that stretch than many teams. An analysis relying on that fact also doesn’t include on-ice shooting percentage, and Vancouver’s offense has been snake bit over the past six weeks (the club’s 5.8 percent on-ice shooting since November 29 ranks 28th in the NHL over the past six weeks).
That said, the Canucks are generating significantly fewer shots at even-strength than they were in the first quarter of the season.
In Vancouver’s first 22 games, the club was taking 30.8 shots rated per 60 minutes of even-strength ice-time, a number that put them in the top-five in the entire NHL. In Vancouver’s past 18 games, they’ve been managing just 27.9 even-strength shots rated per 60 minutes – a number that ranks below average over that six-week stretch. As the shots have dried up, so have the goals.
KEVIN BIEKSA NEEDS A BETTER PARTNER
Kevin Bieksa has been called many things over the years. Early on, he was dubbed “Jovo Light” for his ability to freewheel and fight. Somewhere along the line “Swashbuckler” was added to describe Bieksa and his risk/reward style.
Lately, however, fans have simply been calling for his head.
There is no doubt Bieksa is suffering through a subpar season as far as what we’ve come to expect from him and I have to think he is counting the days to when Dan Hamhuis comes back. Since Bieksa is sometimes caught out of position after jumping into the play or looking for a big hit, he needs a steady partner and Hamhuis fits the bill.
Hamhuis is Bieksa’s security blanket so to speak and you’d have to think coach Willie Desjardins will re-unite the two when Hamhuis returns to action on this trip. What say you Drance?
Kevin Bieksa is having some kind of a down season. The 33-year-old hybrid defender has scored three goals and 10 points so far, which has him on pace for the worst full offensive season of his career. He’s also made some noticeable gaffes moving the puck out of his own end, and his shot attempt differential is in the red – something that hasn’t occurred to him over the course of a full season since 2007-08.
There is a data point that suggests at least part of Bieksa’s issues this season are related to his playing with an overmatched partner in Ryan Stanton. Because “Corsi” or shot attempt differential numbers are really a team stat, we often look at how players perform with and without certain teammates in an effort to tease out individual contributions. This type of analysis is called a “With or Without you” or WOWYs for short, and Bieksa’s WOWYs suggest he’s basically been himself this season, so long as he’s playing with a partner other than Stanton.
Here’s a quick look with data compiled at stats.hockeyanalysis.com, including the amount of ice time Bieksa has logged at five-on-five with his three most common defense partners this season and how that pairing has performed by shot attempt differential (CF%):
Kevin Bieksa
with Stanton: 257:46 TOI, 43.3 CF%
with Sbisa: 187:46 TOI, 50.9 CF%
with Hamhuis: 147:36, 51.9 CF%
All told Bieksa has managed a 52 per cent Corsi For rate when playing away from Stanton this season, which would suggest that at least part of his issues are related to playing a difficult second pairing role while being weighed down by a third-pairing quality defense partner.
What I’d suggest, really, is that Bieksa is at a stage of his career where he’s beginning to lose his fastball. He’s probably not a great bet anymore to help get the puck going the right way at five-on-five in a top-four role while playing with a replacement level partner. Will Hamhuis help correct that? It’s possible, but it’s also a bit of a sucker bet to expect a 31-year-old defender coming off a groin tear to stabilize your back-end.
