Two teams have run through the gauntlet of the first three playoff rounds, and the Stanley Cup final begins Monday between the Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks have likely had the tougher road, having to face the Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues, who respectively finished the regular season first, fourth, and seventh in score-adjusted Corsi, according to Corsica.Hockey.
The Penguins by no means had an easy road, facing the New York Rangers, the Presidents’ Trophy winning Washington Capitals, and last year’s Eastern Conference finalist, the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, those teams finished the regular season just 20th, 10th, and sixth in score-adjusted Corsi.
The Penguins’ road got tougher each round, but the Sharks had a steeper uphill climb overall.
The Sharks have also been an underdog analytically in two of their three series so far, which may give them a mental advantage against a team that has consistently been the favourite. But let’s get into a bit more detail and break down how the two teams stack up.
Unfortunately for the Sharks, the Penguins’ forwards look significantly stronger, generating more shot attempts overall, and more scoring chances. Pittsburgh’s passing game has also been better at even strength, as they gain the zone more efficiently and move the puck to the slot, or East-West, at a higher rate.
The Sharks rely heavily on their forecheck, which is spectacular, but usually attacking off the rush generates higher quality scoring chances than off the cycle.
One thing to keep in mind with these numbers though, is that the Sharks have faced significantly stronger defensive teams than the Penguins have, and while the Penguins generate more scoring chances, the Sharks’ scoring chances are coming more from proven finishers, while the Penguins have seen a large percentage of their chances come from the likes of Bryan Rust, Matt Cullen, and Conor Sheary.
All scoring chances are good, but if you can get the puck to Joe Pavelski in the slot instead of Nick Spaling, you’re probably happy.
With that said, it’s impossible to not give the Penguins the advantage here since they lead in every category.
Similar to the forwards but not as pronounced, the Penguins appear to be stronger on defence. The Sharks’ defencemen carry the puck out of the defensive zone a little bit more often, and are slightly better at holding the offensive blue line, but the Penguins’ defencemen lead in every other category.
One wrinkle in this however, is that the Sharks are behind in controlled and uncontrolled exits (dump outs), meaning that overall, they’re spending less time in their defensive zone. Unfortunately, that hasn’t ended up creating more scoring chances for them, but it’s possible that the Sharks are better at defending their own blue line, keeping the puck out of their own zone entirely.
That, combined with the Sharks’ dump out rate being lower than the Penguins, makes me believe that while it’s very close, the Sharks have a slight advantage on defence.
Matt Murray’s numbers took a serious hit against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that is incredibly adept at attacking off the rush while moving laterally. It partially exposed the young goaltender’s inexperience at tracking the puck at the NHL level, which is something all rookie goaltenders struggle with at times.
Martin Jones meanwhile, was consistent in the third round, but his play hasn’t reached the heights that Murray has seen in the playoffs. Overall, Murray has been superior to Jones in five of eight zones, including the most important one: the inner slot.
Jones is ahead of Murray in just two zones, and tied in a third. Oddly, all three are ‘East’ zones, suggesting that Jones is particularly strong on shots coming from the left side.
Based on the entirety of the playoffs, the Penguins have a clear advantage in goal, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the rookie goaltender break down a little in the final like he did against the Lightning.
However, the advantage should still be Pittsburgh’s.
With two of three categories going to the Penguins, they are the favourites for this series. However, there is an X-factor worth noting. The Sharks’ power play is simply out of this world, and if the Penguins get into penalty trouble, they can ruin any advantage they have very quickly, as the Blues found out in Round 3.
