Happy Thanksgiving, NHL fans.
The American holiday is not only a good chance to unwind with friends and family, but it has also served as a nice checkpoint in the 82-game season.
As the above graphic shows, the playoff picture rarely changes once we hit American Thanksgiving, though the number has increased over the years (perhaps due to the wild-card format instituted in 2013-14).
Elliotte Friedman noted in his latest 30 Thoughts that 78 per cent of teams in a playoff position once we hit this point in the season have remained there since the league expanded to 30 teams in 2000.
Last season saw three teams fall out: the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and Boston Bruins, to be replaced by the Philadelphia Flyers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers.
For some teams, injury to an all-world goaltender derailed a promising season, others were given new life by a the play of a hot rookie, while some just got hot or cold at the right or wrong time.
It can be tough to predict where the season will go from December on, but here are three teams who could chase down a playoff spot and who they might replace.
The Risers
Boston Bruins: The Bruins have a couple things going for them: Tuukka Rask has rebounded from a disappointing season (by his standards) and looks like one of the best netminders in the world again, plus the added benefit of one of the best forward lines in hockey.
David Pastrnak has been more than able to hold his own with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, giving Boston a forward unit capable of dominating play.
Boston is one of the league’s best teams at generating scoring chances and finds itself just one point out of a wild-card spot.
Florida Panthers: Injuries have cost this team Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, and now Alex Petrovic, and yet the Panthers find themselves just two points out of a post-season berth.
This is a team that won the Atlantic last year with 103 points led by a young core plus Jaromir Jagr. It won just five of its first 12 games, but has matched that total in its last eight.
Don’t be surprised if Florida finds itself in the post-season come April.
Dallas Stars: The goaltending in Dallas hasn’t been good enough, but you knew that already. Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen have given the Stars a combined .890 save percentage, better than only Philadelphia.
General manager Jim Nill’s squad has seen a fall in its ability to generate scoring chances so far in 2016-17, but getting Patrick Sharp and Cody Eakin back from injury could help in that regard.
One thing to consider is that Dallas might be the likeliest team to go out and acquire a goalie, and there should be quite a few good options available with the looming expansion draft.
The Stars entered this season with high expectations and Nill won’t want to waste a season of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin‘s prime.
Honourable Mention: Carolina, Winnipeg, Toronto, Philadelphia, Calgary.
The Fallers
New Jersey Devils: The Devils have elite goaltending, but their ability to generate offence is questionable. Only three teams in the Eastern Conference have scored less than New Jersey’s 2.32 goals per game so far, though the addition of Taylor Hall (currently out with a knee injury), could provide a spark.
New Jersey held a playoff spot in December of last year, only to fall out of the race as the season wore on.
The Devils’ goal differential of 0 doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence either.
Minnesota Wild: Someone needed to fall out in the West for Dallas to make it, and unfortunately it’s the Wild who get the short end of the stick in this prediction.
Minnesota has been an average possession team this year, but has gotten by mostly due to the extraordinary play of Devan Dubnyk.
The Wild are only one point ahead of the Stars for third place in the Central (with two games in hand) but are just 4-5-1 in their last 10 games after starting the season 6-2-1.
Their PDO is tied for fourth highest in the league (again due to Dubnyk) so a fall could be coming.
The one thing in Minnesota’s favour is having Bruce Boudreau behind the bench. Boudreau has made the playoffs every single year of his head coaching career save for 2011-12, when he was fired by the Washington Capitals midway through their season and would later take over for Randy Carlyle in Anaheim that same season.
Ottawa Senators: Ottawa’s minus-3 goal differential is tied with St. Louis as the worst of all teams currently in a playoff spot.
The stingy Senators rely on goaltending and team defence to cover for the lowest amount of goals for (47) of any team currently in the playoffs.
Ottawa is on pace to score just 193 goals this season, and no team has made the playoffs with a lower scoring rate in a full season since the Los Angeles Kings scored 194 goals in 2012.
That Kings team was one of the more dominant possession teams in the NHL that season however, while Ottawa found itself at 25th in the league in even-strength Corsi heading into Thursday’s game against Boston.
This is a team that has surprised the hockey world quite a few times over the years, but the guess here is that this season isn’t one of them.
Dishonourable Mention: St. Louis, Anaheim, Columbus, Nashville.
