So after a summer of change, just as much in the front office of the Maple Leafs as on the ice, what if nothing changes?
The thought crossed one’s mind Sunday evening while watching the Leafs get outshot 17-6 in the second period by the Rochester Americans in Buffalo Sabres garb. At home. With a fair number of veteran players in the Toronto lineup.
Same old script, right? By the end of the evening, the Leafs had allowed 38 shots, Jonathan Bernier had stopped 36 of ‘em and they squeaked out a 3-2 shootout win.
Just like they don’t draw it up.
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But it does raise the question: With Randy Carlyle under the gun to win but also make this team do so in a different way, what if he’s successful doing it the old way?
Don’t forget, the Leafs made the playoffs in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season with the swarm/rope-a-dope Carlyle approach, albeit one that had a little more bite than did last year’s squad.
Even last year, the Leafs came out of the gate firing, winning six of their first seven games. They won the Winter Classic at the Big House on Jan. 1, and after beating both the Ducks and Kings on the road in mid-March, the club was 36-24-8 and much of the conversation among fans and pundits was about whether the Leafs would get home-ice advantage in the first round.
Then Bernier got hurt against the Kings. Then the club lost 12 of its final 14 and missed the playoffs.
Then the same analytics people who had been predicting doom and gloom all along said “I told you so,” and spawned an off-season of bloggers being hired by NHL clubs, including the Leafs.
But what if Bernier hadn’t been hurt? Or what if James Reimer hadn’t turned into Red Light Racicot down the stretch?
I know, I know, what ifs are about as meaningful as Roger Goodell speeches.
But I would argue the Leafs, like the Colorado Avalanche with their similar Corsi challenges, would have made the playoffs if Bernier hadn’t gone down.
So, if he stays healthy this season, it certainly seems possible the Leafs could be similarly successful playing the same style, although the logic of PDO suggests that is unlikely.
But if they buck the stats again, then what? Fire Carlyle for winning?
As much as the coach takes the hit for the team’s style of play, and his former assistants took a bigger hit, it’s not at all clear that new lieutenants Steve Spott and Peter Horachek, along with cherubic assistant GM Kyle Dubas, will be able to immediately effect significant change in the team’s playing style. After all, some of it is coaching, but some (much?) of it is personnel, and as long as the Leafs remain iffy on the back end, without a stud up the middle and light on the wings in the top six forwards, they are going to be challenged to convert themselves into a high possession, “heavy” team.
Maybe Stephane Robidas can settle down the blueline, and maybe Leo Komarov can add some orneriness up front. But for the club, as a whole, to play a different style, some players — Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Joffrey Lupul, Dion Phaneuf, Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner — are going to have to significantly alter the way in which they go about their business on a 200-foot basis.
Good luck with that.
Otherwise, it’ll be firepower and Bernier, and as Carlyle and Co. found last year, when that formula works early, it’s awfully hard to change it later.