The Toronto Maple Leafs have looked like a playoff team for most of this season, but after losing five straight and posting just the 23rd-best record in the NHL since January 26, winning just five of 18, doubt is beginning to creep in.
Using Corsica’s rolling average tool in five game groups, we can take a glance at how the Leafs have been playing at even strength recently in terms of score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi, and in Emmanuel Perry’s expected goals model.
The Leafs clearly haven’t been at the peak they experienced from late November through the New Year, but during their struggles they’ve still been above league average in terms of controlling play by these metrics.
And yet, no one who watches them on a regular basis can deny they’ve been struggling, and seem a bit fragile. The question might be whether even-strength play is the problem, or perhaps something that doesn’t show up immediately when looking at shot attempts and expected goals for and against together.
The Leafs have consistently been one of the NHL’s most dangerous offensive teams this season, whereas their defensive play has been pretty questionable. Maybe a look at defence only will give us a better idea of what’s going on.
No matter how you slice it, the Maple Leafs have become extremely porous defensively through their slide. Overall this season the Leafs have been a middle-10 team in terms of allowing dangerous shots against, but over the past 18 games they’ve been allowing chances against at the same rate as the Arizona Coyotes, the worst defensive team in the league.
Unfortunately for Toronto, Freddie Andersen has struggled to keep them afloat under that much pressure and has let in a few backbreakers even in his better performances. The fact is it’s too much to ask a goaltender to bail you out as often as the Leafs have required it of Andersen, especially when he isn’t an elite goaltender to begin with.
The troubling news for the Leafs is that their defensive lapses aren’t limited to one department. They’re allowing more chances at even strength, on the power play, and while shorthanded.
The good news is that 18 games isn’t a large sample size and this is more likely a bump in the road than a signal of continuing struggles. And there’s other good news too.
The Leafs’ biggest problem over this stretch has been giving up high quality shots. But while they’ve been allowing more chances lately than they had been for most of the season, the overall number of chances their opponents are getting is only up by about 9.7 per cent. That’s not a good thing either way, but it’s a much smaller increase than the 30-plus per cent increase in chances on net and inner slot chances.
What this means is Toronto’s problem is more about execution than systemic breakdowns. That doesn’t mean anyone should expect to see the Leafs immediately fix their defensive woes (they are real), but player performance varies greatly in small samples, whereas systemic problems are more likely to persist.
The onus here is on the Leafs’ players to pay more attention to the details when defending, instead of trying to score their way out of trouble. They have the talent to run up the score, but too often they’re only thinking offence. It can be entertaining for sure, but you need to play a more complete game to win in the NHL.
With just 18 games left in the regular season, Toronto’s playoff spot may depend on how fast they can begin to execute at a high level defensively.
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