The Calgary Flames came into this season with higher expectations than 2015-16. Boasting one of the strongest defensive cores in the NHL, along with a bunch of talented young forwards led by Johnny Gaudreau, the big weakness last season was goaltending. Adding Brian Elliott looked like an excellent remedy, but so far that hasn’t been the case.
Struggling big time early, Elliott is beginning to improve, but even without looking at goaltending, the Flames haven’t been performing at the level many people expected of them.
An underwhelming 48.2 per cent score and venue adjusted Corsi has the Flames looking like a below average team, and the news isn’t much better when you look at scoring chances.
The Flames have been solid at keeping overall scoring chances against down, but they haven’t been producing scoring chances themselves. It gets worse when you look at high danger or inner slot scoring chances, where the Flames’ defensive prowess hasn’t been as evident. Expressed as percentages, the Flames have been getting just 45.8 per cent of all even-strength scoring chances in their games and 37.5 per cent of inner slot scoring chances.
It’s important to note that in small sample sizes, dealing with scoring chances can be a little tricky. Sometimes teams can be doing the right things, but not get rewarded for a variety of reasons, so let’s look at the Flames’ transition game and figure out if there’s a problem.
There isn’t really an issue with how the Flames are playing with the puck in transition. They’re approximately league average in terms of pass completion rates, but they’re playing fantastic hockey in terms of exiting and entering the zone, boasting the fifth-best controlled exit rate in the NHL, and the fourth-best controlled entry rate.
Those numbers are a reflection of both the skill level of their players and some smart coaching from new bench boss Glen Gulutzan. The biggest problem seems to be simply not getting to the slot enough for their shot attempts and that could be an issue of random variance, or it could be a hint that the Flames need to work a little harder once they gain the offensive zone at even strength.
Under Bob Hartley, the Flames were a team that attacked primarily off the rush, relying on their talented puck movers on defence to hit their forwards with long stretch passes. That style can generate great scoring chances, but it’s also easily countered and forwards are often caught out of position coming the other way.
Adjusting to a new way of generating chances could take time to get used to for players who became accustomed to attacking at full speed, but the style Gulutzan is having them play has a much better track record in the NHL.
Either way, the Flames so far are showing some signs of being significantly better than their early-season record would indicate. It will be interesting to see if they just need to get used to a new playing style, or if they need to significantly adjust their game plan to generate more scoring chances.
