A couple of top welterweight fighters are out to prove certain gambles are worth the risk.
With Diego (The Nightmare) Sanchez being forced to pull out of his UFC 90 bout versus Thiago (The Pitbull) Alves, Josh Koscheck is taking a page out of Georges St. Pierre's book and stepping up for an eventual shot at the welterweight title.
Sanchez (19-2) tore some rib cartilage while preparing for his grudge match with Alves. But he made the right decision to pull out, even though it's less than two weeks before the event.
With so much on the line, Sanchez needed to be as close to 100 per cent as possible, because anything less would be a recipe for defeat. Fighters rarely show up to their bouts completely healthy, so the closer you are to full health, the better. Thankfully for the UFC, they are able to replace a top ten welterweight with another one; in fact they are getting a higher ranked one in the replacement (Koscheck) than in Sanchez.
For the Brazilian Alves (15-3) and Koscheck (15-2), accepting the fight is a huge gamble, but the risk is filled with massive rewards. Alves already knew that a win over Sanchez would earn him a title shot at the 170-pound crown so not accepting the fight would have put a road block on his quest for glory. For Koscheck, his road to the title just took a shortcut as he was scheduled to take on Yoshiyuki Yoshida in December, a dangerous fight with no upside in the value of his stock. A win over Yoshida would have been expected but a loss would have been detrimental to his goal and would have pushed him two or three fights out from No. 1 status.
In my eyes, this bout goes from what would have been a surefire slugfest and candidate for fight of the night to what looks to be a technical battle of contrasting styles vs. style. The original matchup pitted two guys -- Sanchez and Alves -- who only know how to go forward. The new one has the attacking style of Alves having to now deal with the counter game of Koscheck.
Alves has knockout power in his hands, knees and legs; in fact, he has some of the best Muay Thai leg kicks in the game. But against a wrestler like Koscheck, leg kicks may prove to be a detriment as it easily sets up entries for takedowns, be it a double or single leg takedown. I expect Alves to immediately start working on faking leg kicks while throwing knees to the face as training partners shoot in for takedowns.
While Koscheck may be taking this fight on short notice, he has publicly stated that he has not stopped training since his bout versus Chris Lytle at UFC 86 in July. If this is actually the case, the American Kickboxing Academy standout will be sharp, his timing keen and his game plan will surely look to take his opponent from the American Top Team to the ground.
It will require a combination of timing and explosiveness if Koscheck is going to succeed. With the legendary David Camarillo as one of his trainers and sparring partners like Jon Fitch and Mike Swick, Koscheck will probably look to the past for the recipe required to defeat Alves.
The Pitbull is on a six-fight win streak and last tasted defeat in June 2006. The TKO loss was suffered to the hands (and fists) to none other than Fitch, whom Koscheck lives, breaths and bleeds with on a daily basis. Fitch had the perfect strategy in that fight and one that no one has been able to replicate against him.
Since then, the Brazilian has gotten bigger, stronger and immensely powerful with his strikes, making a mockery of anyone who dares step into the Octagon. In his last three fights, he split open Lytle, dropped Karo Parisyan and completely destroyed former welterweight champion Matt Hughes.
This bout will be a shot at redemption for both fighters as Alves will be looking to take out Fitch's teammate in hopes to set up a future rematch with the former No. 1 contender. When he took the fight, he stated that this was a better matchup for him and is looking forward to "knocking him out." He will be looking to make a statement against Koscheck, one that solidifies his status as the No. 1 welterweight contender while hopefully engaging Fitch with a dominant performance to call him out (so as to save face for A.K.A.).
For Koscheck, his redemption would be a rematch with GSP, as his original bout against the Canadian saw him frustrated and unable to impose his game plan. By defeating Alves at UFC 90, Koscheck will not only take one step closer to a title shot, he will look to avenge a loss and put a beating onto GSP… the same kind GSP did to Fitch. In GSP, he also wants to follow in his footsteps by showing that stepping up and fighting top-flight competition is well worth the gamble.
Remember, it was St. Pierre who stepped up to replace Matt Serra against Hughes last December. St. Pierre was victorious in the fight and four months later, avenged his loss to Serra by winning the welterweight title in his hometown of Montreal. History has a funny way of repeating itself and while these two stories are parallel on so many levels, it's the willingness to gamble that seems to make these welterweights a fearless bunch.
