I said it three months ago, and I might as well stick to it now. Patrick Cote will pull off the upset of UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva Saturday night in Chicago.
Now before you start thinking I'm at worst crazy and at best biased, allow me to give you my reasons ... none of which have to do with the fact that he's Canadian.
1. Cote has got some of the best striking in the world. Kendall Grove and Drew McFedries can attest to that. But what's even more impressive than the strength and swiftness in his punches is how quickly he's able to turn a bout from a close toe-to-toe battle to his favour. Watch the McFedries fight again to see what I mean. This is something Silva is known for -- think Rich Franklin. He may have met his match. Some may ask if Cote really has that ability why couldn't he knock out Ricardo Almeida? Well, the situation was entirely different against Almeida. Cote had a lot to gain in that one, but he also had a lot to lose, so his approach needed to be, for lack of a better word, safe. Against Silva, he has absolutely nothing to lose -- he's expected to get beaten -- so he can approach this one with reckless abandon. That's not to say he'll be reckless, he'll just be more free to come out firing if need be.
2. Cote has one of the best chins I've seen. On Spike's UFC 90 preview show Thursday night, Cote talked about the two big punches he took from McFedries, a guy with heavy hands himself, and how he kept standing. Watching the highlights, not only did he remain standing, he didn't even appear fazed. Obviously McFedries is no Anderson Silva, but I believe Cote will be able to take what Silva gives him.
3. I believe Cote has a great game plan. I won't even get into the fact that he's had a great training camp and works with some of the best in Boston (at Mark DellaGrotte's Sidyodtong facility) and in Montreal (at Fabio Holanda's BTT Canada and Howard Grant's boxing gym), not to mention Canada's national wrestling team. Because any fighter will tell you, quite fairly, they've been training with some of the best. But Cote has said he believes he has the perfect style to beat Silva which will be implemented by his game plan. He won't share exactly what that is -- why would he want to tip his hand? -- but no doubt he's gotten some tips from another champion who hails from Quebec in Georges St. Pierre. One of GSP's strengths is tailoring different game plans against different opponents, and I expect to see the same from Cote.
4. Cote is focused on only one thing. Ever since he scored that split decision win over Almeida in July, Cote has had one fight and one fight only on his mind. The same can't be said of Silva. He's talked about other guys he'd like to fight, how he wants to take on super-fights, how he may retire soon, etc... I don't care how much you think he'll be putting that all aside Saturday night, when you've got a belt to defend against a capable opponent, you shouldn't even be thinking about the future and what might happen after that fight. That only works in Cote's favour.
5. Cote has the confidence. This is not a man who will suffer from any kind of mental block against a guy as dominant as Silva has been. He truly believes he's going to win. And he has said it time and time again. I've had the opportunity to meet him in person and interview him on a number occasions, including at a TKO event when he wasn't even fighting, and I can say it's not a facade. He's genuinely a good guy, with lots of self-confidence and drive. He really wants to bring another belt to Quebec and won't be satisfied with any consolation prize.
6. Dominance always comes to an end. This is true in all sports. There are lots of reasons for this -- whether it be complacency, long-term mental stamina, or simply the law of large numbers (some call this the law of averages). But one reason I believe is that when a team, or in this case a fighter, keeps winning, he is more hesitant to change his style and approach, because after all, it's a winning approach. But each time a challenger tries an approach and fails, the next challenger will look to try something a little different. It's reasonable to expect that if a fighter is beatable -- and we know Silva is because he has lost before -- at some point, a new approach will work and he'll be beaten again.
7. Huge upsets do happen. Even if there seems no way one particular guy could be beaten by another particular guy, it does happen. Best example: Matt Serra vs. Georges St. Pierre. And it will happen again.
Of course, I haven't gotten into reasons why Silva should win this fight because there are plenty. Truthfully, on paper Silva should win. He's the better fighter, on paper and otherwise.
But I just feel that on this particular night, it will be Cote walking out of the Octagon with the belt. Whether by TKO or split decision, he will, as he likes to put it, "shock the world."
