A few weeks ago, I gave seven reasons why I thought heavy underdog Patrick Cote would upset Anderson Silva in the main event at UFC 90.
Unfortunately, the fight was cut short due to injury.
As I look at the main event of this Saturday’s UFC 91, I'm giving it another try, and again, I'm picking the underdog (at least according to most betting lines).
Here you go, seven reasons why "underdog" Randy Couture will retain his heavyweight belt against Brock Lesnar:
1. Couture's experience.
Naturally. And when I say Couture has the experience, I'm not just saying it as if it's some intangible attribute that will somehow negate Lesnar's huge size advantage. Certainly, Lesnar's imposing frame will pose a problem for the champ. Lesnar will try to push Couture into tough spots as he did with Heath Herring, and Couture will have a tough time trying to take him down. But Couture's experience in terms of defensive strategies, angles and his transition game will be key to neutralizing his opponent.
2. Lesnar's lack of experience.
Against Frank Mir, Lesnar didn't have the experience to be able to finish the fight or avoid Mir's submission. Against Heath Herring, he mostly had his way with a guy more experienced than him, but couldn't find a way to finish him in the clinch or on the mat. Lesnar is rapidly improving in many areas of his MMA game, most notably his submission defence. But I don’t believe he is at the point yet where he's truly ready to face a three-time champion.
3. Strategy.
This is an area of strength for Couture, who has 24 career fights to his credit, spanning 10 years. You don't come out of retirement and a year-long absence to fight one of the most efficient fights of your career without a well thought-out strategy. Couture knows full well that tactics play a huge role and you can bet he's got designs on the best way to beat Lesnar. I won't even guess what he will come up with, but his time spent grappling with 300-pound guys mimicking what Lesnar is likely to do won't be for naught.
4. Skill and execution.
It's one thing to come up with a good game plan. It's quite another to actually employ it as you expect to, but Couture is a master of this. Lesnar may be stronger with more punching power and superior wrestling skills, but Couture has superior overall skills. He also has a strong chin -- maybe not the strongest, but better than Lesnar's previous opponents. Some say that all that has to happen is for Couture to make one mistake and Lesnar will take advantage. I believe it's the other way around. And I truly believe Couture will find a way at some point to get Lesnar to the ground. He did it against Gabriel Gonzaga, another big guy who some thought would prove to be trouble for him.
5. Stamina.
Couture's endurance in this fight should be better than Lesnar's, even at age 45. If this fight were taking place a year from now, I would probably be going with Lesnar. But this is only his fourth career fight and it will be his first five-rounder. Lesnar is a superb athlete -- he had a stellar college wrestling career, which definitely required great stamina. But MMA is a different animal. Couture has been doing this for a lifetime so he knows exactly how to condition himself in preparation for a fight, he knows how to pace himself during a fight and his body is used to going five rounds. Some have suggested Couture won't have a "second wind" at his age. If I'm Lesnar, I would be more concerned with being vulnerable to a submission if and when I lose my "first wind"!
(And wasn't Couture still pretty old when he went a full 25 minutes against Tim Sylvia?)
6. Mental toughness.
One of the concerns with Lesnar is that he can get pretty hot, especially at the mention of "steroids" – and it's been suggested Couture might try to exploit this. Whether those kind of tactics will work or not, I'm not sure, but it's clear Lesnar can be rattled. Couture can't. He is cool and he is confident -- you can see it in all of his interviews. Lesnar might be saying things that make him sound confident, but to me they're just coming out as brash. When asked on a conference call what problems Couture poses for him, and he simply answered "none," it made me wonder if he truly understood what's ahead of him or if he was showboating already. Is his head totally in the actual fight or is it more into what a win for him will mean -- the statement it will make, the glory he'll receive?
7. Pressure.
Coming in as the "underdog" works in Couture's favour. If you're not sure about that, take a look at his record in that situation -- he's 9-1. And in case you're thinking he isn't a true underdog, his record as the favourite is 7-7. That’s not great, but keep in mind, none of those losses came against guys with only three prior career fights. With numbers like that, I'd take even the 50-50 shot. The pressure is squarely on Lesnar now because of what he's said on record and what others have said about him. He's been pumped up so much and I'm not sure he'll be able to handle it.
One more note: Lesnar's camp has requested that veteran referee Steve Mazzagatti not work this one because of what happened in Lesnar’s first fight in the Octagon against Mir -- Mazzagatti stood them up after what he perceived was a punch to the back of Mir's. Firstly, I think it's ridiculous that the UFC granted the request (Should NFL referee Ed Hochuli never work a Chargers game again? I don't think so.) But secondly, what is Lesnar doing worrying about who is going to referee his fight. If he's truly confident, he shouldn't care. This isn't WWE… this is the real deal.
As such, I believe the fight will simply come down to fundamentals. Lesnar's a great athlete, but I don't like him in a five-round mixed martial arts contest this early in his career.
My prediction is Couture by submission in the fourth round.
