The TUF 9 finale goes down on Saturday night and our resident MMA expert predicts the winners.
Two fighters will be awarded the dubious distinction of "The Ultimate Fighter" during the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Team U.S. vs Team U.K. Finale. The winners will go down in history alongside the likes of some MMA greats (and former champs) like Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans and title contenders like Michael Bisping and Joe Stevenson.
The main event on the show sees the original Ultimate Fighter, Diego (Nightmare) Sanchez taking on the self-proclaimed "TUF killer," Clay (The Carpenter) Guida in a bout, as per Dana White's statements in the past, this may just decide the next fighter to get a crack at the UFC's lightweight title.
Five fights are scheduled to be broadcast on television, but there are a total of ten fights on the card. Here's how I see the fights unfolding at The Palms on Saturday night.
Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida
Neither one of these two have a reverse gear, so we can look forward to a variety of collisions in the Octagon. If Guida can avoid getting caught with a flying knee, he should be able to systematically control Sanchez on the ground. What Guida will have to overcome is the size difference and strength advantage Sanchez will have in this bout. Guida will also be giving up reach in this fight but I believe his game plan, submission defense and will to win will prevent Sanchez from pulling off a KO or submission. Now, with that being said, Sanchez is a mercenary and has fought bigger guys, tougher guys and been victorious in the past. His only losses are to Jon Fitch and Josh Koschek. The quality of opponents he has defeated far outweighs that of Guida's. Sanchez should be able to keep this fight on his fight, for at least half of the fight, where he will win the striking exchanges. It's a tough call, but Sanchez should pull this one out.
Winner: Sanchez by unanimous judge's decision.
DaMarques Johnson vs. James Wilks
I see this bout as Johnson being the brawler with Wilks being the technical striker. If the fight hits the ground, Wilks should be able to lock in a submission but I believe Johnson will make him pay for every attempt. If Johnson can use his wrestling to keep the fight standing, he should be able to frustrate Wilks and suck the will to win from out of the Brit. I believe he will be able to this and become the next Ultimate Fighter.
Winner: Johnson by KO in Round Three.
Chris Lytle vs. Kevin Burns
Here's a fight where I recommend you do not blink. Lytle will be looking to KO Burns quickly, while the latter will try and get this fight to the ground as quickly as he can. Burns will try and work his ground game but I cannot see him being able to submit Lytle. Burns may be a rising star in the division, but does he have enough to defeat one of the UFC's welterweight gatekeepers? Not yet.
Winner: Lytle by Unanimous Judges Decision
Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner
From day one, I picked Pearson to win the lightweight bracket in this year's show. I will not waver from that early prediction but his fellow Englishman has far better striking reach and makes people pay for standing with him. Winner should be able to defeat Pearson but I get the feeling that the Bull Dog from Sunderland will be able to pull off a TKO and not make me look bad.
Winner: Pearson by TKO, Round Two
Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz
It's the former No. 1 contender in Joe Daddy against the up-and-coming Nate Diaz. Both guys are Ultimate Fighter winners but coming off losses in their last bout. In Stevenson's case, he's coming off two straight losses ( to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez ) and is on the verge of getting cut from the organization. Three straight losses, and it usually means walking papers for most guys. He's been training with Greg Jackson for this bout, but I'm not sure he will be able to pull this one off.
Once this fight hits the ground, I see Diaz catching Stevenson with his patented triangles and hanging on for dear life. Not once, but a few times until eventually he scores the upset.
Winner: Diaz via triangle in Round 3.
Undercard
Melvin Guillard vs. Gleison Tibau
It's a striker versus grappler in this bout but I don't believe Guillard will be able to knock Tibau out. He may rock him, but will get caught the moment he follows him down to the ground to finish the fight.
Winner: Tibau by arm bar, Round 1.
Brad Blackburn vs. Edgar Garcia
When Blackburn fought for me in 2004 he needed only 14 seconds to KO his opponent. Since then, I have always been a fan and tend never look away from the ring, cage or TV when he's fighting.
His opponent Edgar Garcia, is 7-0, with five of his victories via (T)KO, and one by submission…all occurring in the first round. Only one of his fights has gone the distance and he still won that fight.
Blackburn will have to push the pace, be tactical and carry Garcia to late in the second or even the third. I believe he will do that, and punish him en route to victory.
Winner: Blackburn via unanimous judge's decision.
Mike Ciesnolevicz vs. Tomasz Drwal
This fight is going to be a flat out war… I cannot see it going more than two rounds. I have always been impressed with Ciesnolevicz and once the UFC signed him, I thought it was well deserved.
What really impressed me though, was how Drwal was able to rock Thiago Silva in their bout. It shocked all of us in attendance and for a moment, many of us in media row thought he was on the verge of an upset.
I think this time, he will be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Winner: Drwal, KO, Round 2.
Nick Osipczak vs. Frank Lester
Both guys showed they are worthy of being in the UFC, hence being awarded one of only four spots on this year's finale. The UFC usually packs the TUF Finale cards with many of the show's cast members, but this time, they only left for the guys who reached the semis.
After what I saw on the show, Osipczak is the better fighter, but Lester's heart may be the difference in this fight. We can never count out Lester, so it remains to be seen how he will fight, without being exhausted, like he was on the show. Having fought three fights in three weeks was simply too much for Lester in the semi-finals against James Wilks, so here's his next shot at glory (and redemption if you will).
Winner: Lester by unanimous judges decision.
Jason Dent vs. Cameron Dollar
Dent was another fighter who has fought for me, ironically on the same card as the aforementioned Blackburn. He lost a tough fight to Ryan Schultz but since then has reeled off a 12-6 record. His losses have come to quality opponents while his wins have mainly been around guys at his level.
Cameron Dollar appears to be at his level but has only three fights to his name. He's 2-1 but the motivation these two have to hurt each other is real. What we saw on the show is just a pre-cursor of the explosion that will occur on Saturday night. Will Dent be able to use his experience and control his emotions or will Dollar be able to get into Dent's head, and defeat him mentally, as well as in the octagon. I'm rolling the dice and going with the latter.
Winner: Dollar by unanimous judge's decision.
Sportsnet.ca has live coverage of the weigh-in for the finale of The Ultimate Fighter 9. Coverage begins at 7 pm ET/ 4 pm PT.
Then be sure to tune into Sportsnet Saturday at 10:30 pm ET / 7:30 pm PT for the broadcast of Ultimate Fighter 9 from the Palms in Las Vegas. Sportsnet's MMA expert Showdown Joe provides a full preview Friday on Connected.
